Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Yukon Cornelius]

FWD interested in Sunday too


By Saturday night as cold air settles into the region the base of
the 500mb trough will approach the region spreading the strongest
forcing for ascent across North Texas after midnight. This also
occurs as a band of mid level frontogenesis develops across our
northwest counties into southeast Oklahoma. While this pattern
isn`t overly favorable for wintry precipitation as moisture is
generally in the process of getting scoured out...the forcing will
be quite strong so any available moisture could quickly get turned
into precipitation. Thermal profiles will, however, be favorable
for wintry precipitation...either in the form of sleet or snow. At
this time...given the uncertainty in moisture availability and
general timing of the front...will leave any mention of
precipitation out of the current forecast behind the cold
front...although it does bear watching over the next several days.

Our local mets have added the chance of snow in the forecast for Sunday, which I feel is a little premature at this time. Also forecasting a high of 31 and a low of 15.

Aren't you in the Falls?

Right outside of the falls between dean and Petrolia, right along the river.

[gpsnowman]

Kinda silent in here. Nice to see the models have flipped from the previous flop. But tomorrow is a different day! Hopefully we can get some consistency with some cold and not back to warm.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Can someone much smarter than me explain Mountain Torque and AAM and their correlation to our weather?

[Snowman67]

Can someone much smarter than me explain Mountain Torque and AAM and their correlation to our weather?

I certainly can't explain it, but I did come across this article. Don't know if this is what you are looking for.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10. ... -0493(2003)131%3C2608%3AMTGFTA%3E2.0.CO%3B2

[South Texas Storms]

Latest Euro weeklies out this evening show a nice active pattern across Texas through early January. The control run shows several cold blasts along with a few risks of wintry precipitation as far south as Brownsville.

[ravyrn]

We are supposed to go ride the "Polar Express" in Palestine on Saturday evening. LOL. It starts at 6 pm... It would be funny if it started out at 75 and ended the ride at 45.

Enjoy your trip to Palestine! I live in Jacksonville and work in Palestine. If you like BBQ, I recommend Shep's while you're in town. And Cotton Patch is good too, yummy fried green tomatoes!

[aggiecutter]

Latest Euro weeklies out this evening show a nice active pattern across Texas through early January. The control run shows several cold blasts along with a few risks of wintry precipitation as far south as Brownsville.

yes, that will be the pattern for the next 3-4 weeks. Strong SE ridge with pressing cold produces a strong baroclinic zone for storms to roam.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

We are supposed to go ride the "Polar Express" in Palestine on Saturday evening. LOL. It starts at 6 pm... It would be funny if it started out at 75 and ended the ride at 45.

Enjoy your trip to Palestine! I live in Jacksonville and work in Palestine. If you like BBQ, I recommend Shep's while you're in town. And Cotton Patch is good too, yummy fried green tomatoes!

I appreciate it!

[ravyrn]

I appreciate it!

No problem! Shep's is more of a hole in the wall place, so if you want regular fair, goto Cotton Patch. Their prices are fair, portions are good, and service is good. And if you want Mexican, I recommend Don Mario's though a lot of coworkers prefer El Toro.

[Ntxw]

Latest Euro weeklies out this evening show a nice active pattern across Texas through early January. The control run shows several cold blasts along with a few risks of wintry precipitation as far south as Brownsville.

I think the Aleutian ridge will come back. The struggles with the models is their inconsistencies with the MJO. The western trough is a very active (wet) pattern for us in general that progresses slowly eastward longer out. The -PNA is a poor signal for the eastern 1/3rd of the US (SE ridge) but we can benefit from that here in Texas, as evidence with the threats this weekend.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Latest Euro weeklies out this evening show a nice active pattern across Texas through early January. The control run shows several cold blasts along with a few risks of wintry precipitation as far south as Brownsville.

I think the Aleutian ridge will come back. The struggles with the models is their inconsistencies with the MJO. The western trough is a very active (wet) pattern for us in general that progresses slowly eastward longer out. The -PNA is a poor signal for the eastern 1/3rd of the US but we can benefit from that here in Texas

Yep a positive PNA is almost always cold for the SE but a glancing blow (at best) for those of us in Texas

[Ntxw]

Latest Euro weeklies out this evening show a nice active pattern across Texas through early January. The control run shows several cold blasts along with a few risks of wintry precipitation as far south as Brownsville.

I think the Aleutian ridge will come back. The struggles with the models is their inconsistencies with the MJO. The western trough is a very active (wet) pattern for us in general that progresses slowly eastward longer out. The -PNA is a poor signal for the eastern 1/3rd of the US but we can benefit from that here in Texas

Yep a positive PNA is almost always cold for the SE but a glancing blow (at best) for those of us in Texas

-EPO with -PNA is usually our best combo. -PNA brings us prolific rains in the spring.

[Brent]

Yep I'll never forget after last winter that you never want to see a +PNA for snow here... the trace at DFW on 12/28 happened during one of the only times last year it was negative.

So who's ready for the 10-degree wind chills Sunday morning after it gets near 80

[Ntxw]

Yep I'll never forget after last winter that you never want to see a +PNA for snow here... the trace at DFW on 12/28 happened during one of the only times last year it was negative.

So who's ready for the 10-degree wind chills Sunday morning after it gets near 80

You don't even have to go back that long just look at the past couple of months. any meaningful cold we've had so far is in December which started the -PNA episode. Even that mid August rain and cool shows up -PNA! It's pretty evident when the +PNA shows up, things like to slide off to our east like thundersleetdreams mentioned

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS staying consistent with below normal temps through Christmas Eve...

Cold Christmas Day...

[Brent]

Snow in DFW Christmas morning this run

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Snow in DFW Christmas morning this run

If a 1053 high is sitting in CO, I'd have to think the surface temps would look a lot colder... not that it matters, but it's fun to look at

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Just about the whole run, minus late this week is below normal

[Brent]

Almost a 60 degree drop on the Euro at DFW Saturday Night/Sunday morning. Close to 80 and some teens outside the immediate metro

Has a little precip as temps are plunging. Sunday's high is right at 32 and is still in the 20s late morning. Stays chilly through the end of the run(may not see 40 at least Mon/Tue), and nothing above 50 appears. Some hint of a wave Wednesday morning and temps start the day near freezing but no real precip appears on this run.

[A.V.]

Come on SE US ridge, expand across the Southern US, become a permanent feature, and then arctic air will never go south again (which is how it should be).