Texas Winter 2016-2017

[orangeblood]

I just noticed on the GFS DFW goes from 80 degrees Saturday afternoon to 21 degrees Sunday morning.

Which is why I believe neither will happen. I've only witnessed a temp drop like that twice. Once in December 1989 (77 to 23 in a few hours) and once in Columbus, Ohio in grad school, where it is much more likely to do that as Fall transitions to Winter.

I don't believe Saturday will be as warm as models are predicting, and while I think Sunday will be cold, I don't think anyone from DFW southward sees anything below 28-29.

What makes you think the models have temps too low ? Have you seen the source region of this airmass coming down ? This has all the makings of a model bust, with temps way below what is currently progged....shouldn't be a lot of modification with this current NA snowpack in place...

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro is warmer on Saturday too, has DFW at 79 degrees at 21z. Front incoming.

At 0z Sunday(3 hours later), it's dropped almost 30 degrees.

At 6z Sunday, it's 28 degrees.

We are supposed to go ride the "Polar Express" in Palestine on Saturday evening. LOL. It starts at 6 pm... It would be funny if it started out at 75 and ended the ride at 45.

[Brent]

Euro stays below freezing on Sunday afternoon at DFW after that crazy drop. The GFS/Euro actually are pretty close agreement now.

[aggiecutter]

12z Canadian makes much more sense holding together UL energy coming out of southwest, quite the ice storm next Monday

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

[aggiecutter]

Euro stays below freezing on Sunday afternoon at DFW after that crazy drop. The GFS/Euro actually are pretty close agreement now.

The tweakers of those two models saw my post on this board the other day. I am almost as good as JB.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

what does the Euro show out to 240? Curious if it forks from the GFS through mid next week or if it stays the course on seasonally cool weather...

[TheProfessor]

Whew, right now my forecast for Thursday is 15 degrees, and when I fly back to Texas Thursday evening temperatures could be around 40. That's almost a 30 degree increase!

[Brent]

what does the Euro show out to 240? Curious if it forks from the GFS through mid next week or if it stays the course on seasonally cool weather...

Rain and temps around 50 at the end of the run

[CaptinCrunch]

These models are flip flopping around like a fish on a hot river bank. I 100% agree with Porta and wxman57, I wouldn't give a shinny wooden nickel for one of these pretty model runs outside of 72hrs.

[orangeblood]

12Z Canadian Ensembles very aggressive with this weekends Arctic Front....low 20's for DFW on both Sunday and Monday morning, pretty impressive for a group of ensembles this far out. Also shows 24hr qpf of between 0.10-0.25 inch across North Texas

[gatorcane]

12Z Canadian Ensembles very aggressive with this weekends Arctic Front....low 20's for DFW on both Sunday and Monday morning, pretty impressive for a group of ensembles this far out. Also shows 24hr qpf of between 0.10-0.25 inch across North Texas

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_29.png

Seems like the Canadian always overdoes the cold for some reason so no reason to believe this time is different! I wonder if a team is looking at why the model has this flaw.

[Snowflake7]

So does it look like DFW will see any winter precip anytime soon??

[gpsnowman]

Steve McCauley on FB drops a subtle hint regarding this upcoming Sunday. No details except stay tuned. He does say Saturday will be quite warm.

[Snowman67]

Seems that while the models have begun to trend colder for Sunday, the cold air modifies quickly. Is this due to the projected zonal flow aloft? Thanks.

[Brent]

FWD interested in Sunday too


By Saturday night as cold air settles into the region the base of
the 500mb trough will approach the region spreading the strongest
forcing for ascent across North Texas after midnight. This also
occurs as a band of mid level frontogenesis develops across our
northwest counties into southeast Oklahoma. While this pattern
isn`t overly favorable for wintry precipitation as moisture is
generally in the process of getting scoured out...the forcing will
be quite strong so any available moisture could quickly get turned
into precipitation. Thermal profiles will, however, be favorable
for wintry precipitation...either in the form of sleet or snow. At
this time...given the uncertainty in moisture availability and
general timing of the front...will leave any mention of
precipitation out of the current forecast behind the cold
front...although it does bear watching over the next several days.

[Yukon Cornelius]

FWD interested in Sunday too


By Saturday night as cold air settles into the region the base of
the 500mb trough will approach the region spreading the strongest
forcing for ascent across North Texas after midnight. This also
occurs as a band of mid level frontogenesis develops across our
northwest counties into southeast Oklahoma. While this pattern
isn`t overly favorable for wintry precipitation as moisture is
generally in the process of getting scoured out...the forcing will
be quite strong so any available moisture could quickly get turned
into precipitation. Thermal profiles will, however, be favorable
for wintry precipitation...either in the form of sleet or snow. At
this time...given the uncertainty in moisture availability and
general timing of the front...will leave any mention of
precipitation out of the current forecast behind the cold
front...although it does bear watching over the next several days.

Our local mets have added the chance of snow in the forecast for Sunday, which I feel is a little premature at this time. Also forecasting a high of 31 and a low of 15.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

FWD interested in Sunday too


By Saturday night as cold air settles into the region the base of
the 500mb trough will approach the region spreading the strongest
forcing for ascent across North Texas after midnight. This also
occurs as a band of mid level frontogenesis develops across our
northwest counties into southeast Oklahoma. While this pattern
isn`t overly favorable for wintry precipitation as moisture is
generally in the process of getting scoured out...the forcing will
be quite strong so any available moisture could quickly get turned
into precipitation. Thermal profiles will, however, be favorable
for wintry precipitation...either in the form of sleet or snow. At
this time...given the uncertainty in moisture availability and
general timing of the front...will leave any mention of
precipitation out of the current forecast behind the cold
front...although it does bear watching over the next several days.

Our local mets have added the chance of snow in the forecast for Sunday, which I feel is a little premature at this time. Also forecasting a high of 31 and a low of 15.

Aren't you in the Falls?

[Snowman67]

WXman57 - I come in peace. I am ready to negotiate. You have bottled up the cold air up north. Can we work toward a compromise that will allow us to have a couple of winter episodes this season? I look forward to working with you.

You are too late. My azaleas are in bloom, meaning winter is over. I notice the 6Z GFS-parallel run dropped the big Christmas front with the 1055mb high in favor of warm southerly winds across Texas.

All (most) kidding aside, I've been saying don't trust any model beyond the next few days. The pattern we're moving into is going to pose problems for the models. Of course, if the models say it will be nice and warm then I'd like to believe them...

I had a feeling that this would be your response Given you unwillingness to work with us cold mongers, I have no choice but to send a winter blast upon thy azaleas at some point this winter!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

GFS loses any warm up next week and keeps Texas below normal through Christmas...

[Brent]

Has DFW hitting 80 Saturday and 21 Sunday morning again an almost unbelievable drop