Southern Plains winter wx thread (2008-2009)

[CYCLONE MIKE]

they are putting the freezing rain and snow in the nws now!

so dallas! watch out ! monday - wednesday maybe thursday

If you mean for the DFW area, no they are not, at least not in the forecast. Please post a link to support such a claim and/or be more specific about what you are referring to.

Secondly, the official NWS forecast only goes-out to 7 days.

the models 3rd time in a row shows a major snow and ice event monday through thursday for this event!

Which models? For what area? Post links!!!

This guy is like some of the people that come on here during hurricane season rambling on and on about doom and gloom scenarios because HE saw this model showing it 7-14 days out and claims the NWS is forecasting it to happen as well. And refuses to show any reasoning as to where he gets his data no matter who and how many times mods and others tell him to.

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS does show an ice storm for Oklahoma City next week.

OK, that is weird, GFS conditionals from AccuWx show snow for OKC when 850 mb temps are above freezing and 2 meter temps are safely below.


Anyway, could be sleet, 850 mb temps between 1 and 4ºC during the event, but snow seems unlikely.

Enjoy...

[severe]

You must have models and or facts to make a post on this site?
Understand you want pro mets and good model readers posting.
But do you not want the average weather enthusiast to share this forum, or do they have to have links, models, a degree, to post?

[Ed Mahmoud]

You must have models and or facts to make a post on this site?
Understand you want pro mets and good model readers posting.
But do you not want the average weather enthusiast to share this forum, or do they have to have links, models, a degree, to post?

I am an average weather enthusiast, do have a BS degree, but not in a field remotely related to atmospheric science or met.


And I can link to models, and copy and paste AFD's from the NWS and HPC and SPC discussions/products with little effort.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looks like a sleety, icy, snowy mess for Oklahoma early next week. Might be our first significant winter storm of the season here in OKC if the model trends continue.

[jasons2k]

You must have models and or facts to make a post on this site?

If you are quoting the NWS or NHC or referring to a specific model run, you do, especially if a check of the NWS does not back-up what you are posting.

Understand you want pro mets and good model readers posting.

Of course we encourage Pro Mets and "good model readers" to post

But do you not want the average weather enthusiast to share this forum, or do they have to have links, models, a degree, to post?

We also encourage amateurs and "newbies" to post as well, including you . Never have we required one to have a degree, etc., to post. However, posting that the NWS forecast includes snow when it in fact, doesn't, warrants a response and a request for a link to back-up what you are saying.

Here is another example: I can post "Tomorrow the NWS is calling for it to be sunny and 68 in Houston". Although a link would be the courteous thing, I don't necessarily HAVE to post a link because if you go to the NWS site, it clearly shows tomorrow's forecast to be sunny and 68.

(and the link is here to check: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=139)

Now, if I posted "The NWS is forecasting rain in Houston tomorrow", you can bet the first person to go to the NWS site and see 'Sunny and 68' is going to ask me for a link to see what I'm talking about. They will probably ask "rain, what rain??" Posting something like that just confuses people.

Moral of the story: when in doubt, include a link.

I hope this clears things up.

[southerngale]

You must have models and or facts to make a post on this site?
Understand you want pro mets and good model readers posting.
But do you not want the average weather enthusiast to share this forum, or do they have to have links, models, a degree, to post?

No, of course not. But when you continue to make claims of ice and snow with brutal temperatures of record proportions, major and/or biggest snow and ice events coming in the next few weeks, various vague, extreme model claims, etc., yeah, you ought to back it up, especially if you want people to believe you. And particularly when you're new and nobody knows you, yet.

However, anyone can join in with their own opinions and comments anytime.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Always hard to tell from low resolution graphics provided for free, but snow/ice Sunday into Monday in OKC, maybe reaching as far South as North Texas into Tuesday, maybe, says PSU e-Wall presentation of Euro.

[srainhoutx]

HPC's Final Update thoughts today concerning next week. A bit lengthy, but well worth the read...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
152 PM EST TUE JAN 20 2009

VALID 12Z FRI JAN 23 2009 - 12Z TUE JAN 27 2009

MULTI-DAY MEANS FROM 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN RUNS DEPICT TWO
SIGNIFICANT HGT ANOMALY CENTERS THAT SHOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON
NORTH AMERICAN FLOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE FCST PERIOD. OVER
THE PAC A STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER IS FCST APPROXIMATELY
BETWEEN ALASKA AND HAWAII. TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THIS
FEATURE FAVOR A FAIRLY DEEP TROF WITH AN AXIS SOMEWHERE OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST OR PAC NW COAST DEPENDING ON THE POSN OF THE
UPSTREAM RIDGE. MEANWHILE A STRONG NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALY EXPECTED
OVER THE NERN ATLC TELECONNECTS TO A BROAD MEAN TROF ORIENTED OVER
E-CNTRL NOAM... WITH ABOVE OR WELL ABOVE NORMAL HGTS FROM THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WRN ATLC.

GUIDANCE IS STILL HAVING DIFFICULTIES IN HANDLING FLOW OVER
ALASKA/NWRN CANADA IN THE SHORT RANGE SO THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FCST AS OF DAY 3 FRI. 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS ARE
ONCE AGAIN MORE RELUCTANT TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER HIGH OVER OR NEAR
THE NRN AK COAST VERSUS MOST OTHER GUIDANCE... SO THEIR SOLNS ARE
CONSIDERED AMONG THE LESS LIKELY ONES ACROSS SRN CANADA AND NRN
CONUS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL FAIR
AGREEMENT THAT STRENGTHENING OF THE ERN PAC RIDGE SHOULD ENCOURAGE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROF OVER THE WEST BY AROUND DAY 5 SUN. 00Z/06Z
GFS RUNS MAY BE BRINGING TOO MUCH SWRN CANADA ENERGY INTO THE NWRN
STATES DUE TO ISSUES EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD SHOWS A MORE DRAMATIC INCREASE BY DAYS
6-7 MON-TUE. WHAT AGREEMENT THAT DOES EXIST AMONG 00Z
GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WOULD INDICATE THAT UPSTREAM PAC
FLOW SHOULD APPROACH THE WEST COAST EARLIER THAN FCST BY 00Z/06Z
GFS RUNS... THUS KICKING THE WRN CONUS TROF EWD FASTER THAN THE
GFS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 00Z GEFS MEAN WHOSE TROF AXIS IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER 12Z/19 EC RUNS
THAT ARE OVER THE PLAINS AS OF EARLY DAY 7 TUE. 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN PROGRESSION IS AT LEAST AS FAST AS THE 12Z/19 EC.
AS OF EARLY TUE INDIVIDUAL GEFS/EC/CMC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW NO
WELL DEFINED CLUSTERING OF SFC WAVES... WITH A FAIRLY EVEN
SCATTERING FROM THE SRN HALF OF THE PLAINS TO THE ERN SLOPES OF
THE CNTRL-SRN APLCHNS.

12Z UPDATE... THE NEW GFS RUN APPEARS TO HAVE RESOLVED SOME OF ITS
PROBLEMS OVER NWRN NOAM IN THE SHORT RANGE. HOWEVER WHILE THE 12Z
GFS IS NOT AN OUTLIER AMONG 12Z GEFS MEMBERS IT IS FAIRLY EXTREME
WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF ITS TROF THAT DIGS INTO THE SOUTHWEST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK... AND IS MUCH DEEPER THAN THE GEFS MEAN WHICH BY
DAY 7 BEARS A CLOSE RESEMBLANCE TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN. BY
SUN-MON THE 12Z UKMET/CMC BRING CNTRL CONUS LOW PRESSURE FARTHER
NWD THAN MOST OTHER GUIDANCE IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERING DETAILS
ALOFT. WILL NOT GIVE MUCH WEIGHT TO THOSE SOLNS GIVEN THEIR
VERIFICATION HISTORY AND COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE NRN HALF-TWO
THIRDS OF THE CONUS.


EVOLUTION OF ECMWF RUNS AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS OVER THE ERN
PAC/WRN CONUS LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND SEEMS TO GO
ALONG WITH ERN PAC/WRN NOAM TELECONNECTIONS BETTER THAN
OPERATIONAL GFS RUNS... WHILE A COMPROMISE AMONG THE
ECMWF/ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOULD PROVIDE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE FOR
RESOLVING VERY UNCERTAIN TIMING DIFFS OVER THE CNTRL-ERN CONUS.
THUS THE DAYS 6-7 MON-TUE FCST STARTS WITH A 50/30/20 BLEND OF THE
00Z ECMWF/00Z GEFS MEAN/00Z EC ENS MEAN. DAY 7 WAS ADJUSTED TO A
00Z EC AND 12Z/19 EC COMPROMISE TO ARRIVE AT AN INTERMEDIATE
FRONTAL POSN OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN
SUPPORTS A SIMILAR DAY 7 POSN. A 70/30 BLEND OF THE 00Z EC/EC
MEAN... WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR 12Z GUIDANCE DAYS
3-4... PROVIDES A FAIR REPRESENTATION OF CONSENSUS WITH THE DAYS
3-5 FRI-SUN FCST THAT IS DOMINATED BY COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE CNTRL-ERN STATES AND THE LEADING LOW PRESSURE/COLD FRONT.



REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS...

...WEST...

EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEV SNOW MOSTLY ACROSS CNTRL-NRN
AREAS FRI-TUE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT AT SOME
LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD BE OF ONLY LGT-MDT INTENSITY. NRN-CNTRL
AREAS SHOULD ALSO SEE A MODEST COOLING TREND OVER THE COURSE OF
THE FCST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SNOW LEVELS.
...CENTRAL/EAST...

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO THE NORTHEAST FRI-SAT AND COLD FRONT
TRAILING INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL BE AT THE LEADING EDGE OF
ANOTHER AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHOULD SUPPORT BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER MANY AREAS OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE
CNTRL-ERN CONUS THRU THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY
SUN-TUE PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY SOME GULF MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO
STREAM OVER THIS DOME OF COLD AIR... LEADING TO A BROADENING
SHIELD OF WINTRY PCPN FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO EAST COAST WITH
RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A WHILE TO
RESOLVE DETAILS OF COVERAGE/TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE VARIOUS PCPN
TYPES.

RAUSCH

[vbhoutex]

You must have models and or facts to make a post on this site?

If you are quoting the NWS or NHC or referring to a specific model run, you do, especially if a check of the NWS does not back-up what you are posting.

Understand you want pro mets and good model readers posting.

Of course we encourage Pro Mets and "good model readers" to post

But do you not want the average weather enthusiast to share this forum, or do they have to have links, models, a degree, to post?

We also encourage amateurs and "newbies" to post as well, including you . Never have we required one to have a degree, etc., to post. However, posting that the NWS forecast includes snow when it in fact, doesn't, warrants a response and a request for a link to back-up what you are saying.

Here is another example: I can post "Tomorrow the NWS is calling for it to be sunny and 68 in Houston". Although a link would be the courteous thing, I don't necessarily HAVE to post a link because if you go to the NWS site, it clearly shows tomorrow's forecast to be sunny and 68.

(and the link is here to check: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... &map.y=139)

Now, if I posted "The NWS is forecasting rain in Houston tomorrow", you can bet the first person to go to the NWS site and see 'Sunny and 68' is going to ask me for a link to see what I'm talking about. They will probably ask "rain, what rain??" Posting something like that just confuses people.

Moral of the story: when in doubt, include a link.

I hope this clears things up.

If this and Southerngale's explanation does not clear it up please contact any admin or staff member for further explanation.

[Texas Snowman]

OKC NWS office talking about possible snow in S. Oklahoma and portions of N. Texas early next week.

This snippet is from their afternoon discussion:

MODELS THEN SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY.
HOWEVER... MODELS DIFFER ON THE UPR LVL PATTERN... WITH THE ECMWF
MORE PROGRESSIVE. MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM... WITH RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE RAIN MAY TURN TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX AS THE COLD
AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

[Texas Snowman]

Dallas NWS getting in on the act...sort of.

Here's a snippet from their pm discussion on Inauguration Day :

REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND A STRONGER FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
BUT SYSTEM WARRANTS MONITORING.

So we've got a Bear Forecast Alert - system bears watching!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The OKC NWS is still a little bearish with the snow/ice threat next week. Right now they are just calling for cold temperatures (Highs in the 30s, lows in the lower 20s) and cloudy skies for early next week. If the models keep up with the wintry scenarios though, then the NWS may need to make some big changes to the forecast in the days to come. It will be fun to watch how it all plays out.

Here is a look at the 18z GFS...

138 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif
144 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
150 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif
156 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
162 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif
168 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
174 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
180 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

The OKC NWS is still a little bearish with the snow/ice threat next week. Right now they are just calling for cold temperatures (Highs in the 30s, lows in the lower 20s) and cloudy skies for early next week. If the models keep up with the wintry scenarios though, then the NWS may need to make some big changes to the forecast in the days to come. It will be fun to watch how it all plays out.

Here is a look at the 18z GFS...

138 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif
144 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif
150 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif
156 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
162 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif
168 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif
174 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif
180 hrs: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

So much for the NTX winter storm idea...have fun with it in oklahoma
I swear its been several years since ive seen a decent winter storm in the metroplex....please tell me this is the one im looking for

/rant

[arizonasooner]

Jeez, the winter-hype on this thread and others is disturbing, to say the least.

It would be nice to have some snow in OK/TX once in awhile, but more often than not, it is simply not going to happen.

And this is from a real meteorologist who likes to call himself a climatologist from time to time.

Call me back in 15-20 years and we'll check on the snow....

[somethingfunny]

Jeez, the winter-hype on this thread and others is disturbing, to say the least.

It would be nice to have some snow in OK/TX once in awhile, but more often than not, it is simply not going to happen.

And this is from a real meteorologist who likes to call himself a climatologist from time to time.

Call me back in 15-20 years and we'll chec on thesnow....

You're saying I can kick the football without running at it first?

[arizonasooner]

You're saying I can kick the football without running at it first?

No. Just keep your head down.

[srainhoutx]

Appears to be some interest concerning Model Data for the coming period. NOAA WSPOD issued for E/NWPAC for Thursday...

NOUS42 KNHC 201930 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EST TUE 20 JAN 2009
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JAN 2009 WSPOD NUMBER.....08-051 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 76...TRACK CHANGED
A. P14/ 45.0N 134.5W (DROP 9)/ 21/1200Z
B. AF301 02WSC TRACK14
C. 21/0700Z
D. 16 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 21/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Drops should provide some good data for model guidance concerning 00Z and 12Z Thursday/Friday. Hmmm
Perhaps some future model watching may be in order.

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the model solutions today. Check out what the preliminary forecast discussion from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center this morning said:

THE PRICE YOU PAY FOR BREAKING DOWN A PERSISTENT AND AMPLIFIED
POSITIVE PNA PATTTERN IS OFTEN INCREASED MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION SPREAD DURING TRANSITION TO A NEW FLOW REGIME. THIS IS
THE CASE TODAY AS 00 UTC GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE OFFERING BELOW NORMAL RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY.

[srainhoutx]

I wouldn't get too hung up on the model solutions today. Check out what the preliminary forecast discussion from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center this morning said:

THE PRICE YOU PAY FOR BREAKING DOWN A PERSISTENT AND AMPLIFIED
POSITIVE PNA PATTTERN IS OFTEN INCREASED MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTION SPREAD DURING TRANSITION TO A NEW FLOW REGIME. THIS IS
THE CASE TODAY AS 00 UTC GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE WHILE OFFERING BELOW NORMAL RUN TO RUN
CONTINUITY.

To say the least Portastorm. The entire text leads one to believe there remains a lot of speculation concerning the eventual outcome. Perhaps this is one reason NOAA is flying this complicated mess for better model guidance.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html