Texas Winter 2020-2021

[HockeyTx82]

So is the north part of DFW missing out on anything or are just saying that 3 inches is missing out now?

I see models showing us still getting snow so are we thinking more south now? I'm confused ATM

[Haris]

Nice blanket over the state. Wouldn’t mind 2” here

[Captmorg70]

So is the north part of DFW missing out on anything or are just saying that 3 inches is missing out now?

I see models showing us still getting snow so are we thinking more south now? I'm confused ATM

The heaviest axis of snow is current pointed south of the metro.

Missing out could be 1 inch of snow, but I feel like we could see something here in Denton county.

The track and finer details will really be hammered out in the next 24-36 hrs.

I will say with the trends this year. I don’t mind being on the northern side of things atm.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z NAM is looking like it might be a repeat of the 6z for NTX

[Ntxw]

Something to note on the NAM runs is that it is depicting the cold air aloft well and has virtually an all snow event vs changing over.

[Texas Snow]

That looks great

[Ntxw]

Something to note on the NAM runs is that it is depicting the cold air aloft well and has virtually an all snow event vs changing over.

Also to add once it takes that turn to negative tilt we'll see the trowal develop. Heaviest QPF centered over the clusters of thunderstorms but then the longer duration snow sits over the I-20 and I-30 corridor behind the initial onslaught in the trowal. Overall great run. We could be looking at greater than 12 hours worth of snow falling.

[Cerlin]

I’ll take that run! Maybe even shifted north just by a few miles (which is likely to happen)

[orangeblood]

Something to note on the NAM runs is that it is depicting the cold air aloft well and has virtually an all snow event vs changing over.

Also to add once it takes that turn to negative tilt we'll see the trowal develop. Heaviest QPF centered over the clusters of thunderstorms but then the longer duration snow sits over the I-20 and I-30 corridor behind the initial onslaught. Overall great run.

Yep, spot on...pretty long duration event for this area. Amazing set up for accumulating snow while roads should remain relatively safe! Starting to find this snow hole over DFW showing up on the models pretty comical...way overestimating the urban heat island effect across the metroplex in a setup like this!

[HockeyTx82]

18z NAM is looking like it might be a repeat of the 6z for NTX

Meaning? Good, bad?

[WacoWx]

TWC app is just calling for a cold Dallas rain now, as opposed to "<1" of snow" a few hours ago. They're not buying the cold temps, apparently.

[BTAYLOR5021]

Bastardi mentioned 3-6 inches for metroplex via Twitter an hour ago.

[rwfromkansas]

Something to note on the NAM runs is that it is depicting the cold air aloft well and has virtually an all snow event vs changing over.

Also to add once it takes that turn to negative tilt we'll see the trowal develop. Heaviest QPF centered over the clusters of thunderstorms but then the longer duration snow sits over the I-20 and I-30 corridor behind the initial onslaught in the trowal. Overall great run. We could be looking at greater than 12 hours worth of snow falling.

What I would love to see is it starting in the afternoon or so so we have more time after dark to really amp totals with less fighting warming. But, overall, this looks great. You can't ask for much better in Texas. We just can't get snowstorms here with temps at 25 or something, so you work with what you got.

[Ntxw]

Something to note on the NAM runs is that it is depicting the cold air aloft well and has virtually an all snow event vs changing over.

Also to add once it takes that turn to negative tilt we'll see the trowal develop. Heaviest QPF centered over the clusters of thunderstorms but then the longer duration snow sits over the I-20 and I-30 corridor behind the initial onslaught in the trowal. Overall great run. We could be looking at greater than 12 hours worth of snow falling.

What I would love to see is it starting in the afternoon or so so we have more time after dark to really amp totals with less fighting warming. But, overall, this looks great. You can't ask for much better in Texas. We just can't get snowstorms here with temps at 25 or something, so you work with what you got.

If you believe the NAM runs, we'll get to enjoy the snow falling most of the day and then it continues after dark.

Trowel/deformation band snows can be really sneaky and often it is when the surface cools the most under such a feature. That's where you tend to see the fluffier type snow vs the heavy wet stuff. 850mb temps depicted is really cold for the usual north texas events.

[Texas Snow]

Fortunately for us these apps don't really forecast. They are just a throw up of model data not analyzed for biases by humans. I would just delete it and pay attention to the NWS (and this board for added fun)

[bubba hotep]

NAM also has surface temps near freezing in many areas. Model generated soundings are beautiful and probably promote big fat flakes and 1" /hr snow over an large area for a extended time. Historic run or as they say, "We got NAMed!"

[cheezyWXguy]

18z NAM is looking like it might be a repeat of the 6z for NTX

Meaning? Good, bad?

Good. 6z had the best setup for NTX so far, and 18z followed suit. 18z has a weird donut hole of lesser accum over dfw airport (heat island?) but it really doesn’t matter at this point. I’d be happy to lock this in

[Ntxw]

18z NAM is looking like it might be a repeat of the 6z for NTX

Meaning? Good, bad?

Good. 6z had the best setup for NTX so far, and 18z followed suit. 18z has a weird donut hole of lesser accum over dfw airport (heat island?) but it really doesn’t matter at this point. I’d be happy to lock this in

Yeah you can see clearly the qpf and soundings, it's the weird surface temp model thing with the heat island.

FW probably should be at least considering winter storm watches given we are now getting closer to business for just about the entire CWA.

[Quixotic]

Meaning? Good, bad?

Good. 6z had the best setup for NTX so far, and 18z followed suit. 18z has a weird donut hole of lesser accum over dfw airport (heat island?) but it really doesn’t matter at this point. I’d be happy to lock this in

Yeah you can see clearly the qpf and soundings, it's the weird surface temp model thing with the heat island.

FW probably should be at least considering winter storm watches given we are now getting closer to business for just about the entire CWA.

I bet they push it off to tomorrow.

[DonWrk]

Sure hope that ICON isn’t on to something.