Texas Winter 2012-2013

[HockeyTx82]

On this day, December 18, 1983.........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 8&source=0



Just a reminder as to what extremes can do be it hot or cold.......

Anyone here remember that? I was 1

[iorange55]

On this day, December 18, 1983.........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 8&source=0



Just a reminder as to what extremes can do be it hot or cold.......

Anyone here remember that? I was 1

My parents were enjoying their life kid free back in 1983, I hadn't even crossed their mind! But, wow! Almost two weeks below freezing, I didn't realize it was that long.

I'm sure we'll beat that record one day. We beat the snowfall record for a single day, so we can beat this!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Now were talking! Bring it on down!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I will say 0z GFS scenario is Houston miracle potential since they don't get a lot of snow down there!

But no wound up storm so no blizzard on it, early Dec 2008/2009 are good analogs for that run.

You what happened in Houston in early December 2008 and 2009 right?

[Ntxw]

I'm not a fan of the Canadian lately, but I will post it since it adds to the humor.

It takes the middle road blend of the two, south track, then bend to the Lakes like the Euro

[HockeyTx82]

On this day, December 18, 1983.........

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 8&source=0



Just a reminder as to what extremes can do be it hot or cold.......

Anyone here remember that? I was 1

My parents were enjoying their life kid free back in 1983, I hadn't even crossed their mind! But, wow! Almost two weeks below freezing, I didn't realize it was that long.


I'm sure we'll beat that record one day. We beat the snowfall record for a single day, so we can beat this!

I wonder what, if any, the model runs showed back then? I mean did the technology exist back then to forecast that many days out if any? Say we saw a pattern on the models that suggested we could make a run at breaking the record today? Who would believe it? Would wxman57 pack up and move further south?

[Ntxw]

GFS ensemble means

[weatherguy425]

Interesting how even with a more southern track, overall precipitation amounts appear to be much less for Texas. I'd expect more precipitation depicted, even with a much weaker low. Obviously still many issues to be resolved.

[Ntxw]

Interesting how even with a more southern track, overall precipitation amounts appear to be much less for Texas. I'd expect more precipitation depicted, even with a much weaker low. Obviously still many issues to be resolved.

Positive tilt, open trough. Cold dry air obliterates moisture source.

[weatherguy425]

Interesting how even with a more southern track, overall precipitation amounts appear to be much less for Texas. I'd expect more precipitation depicted, even with a much weaker low. Obviously still many issues to be resolved.

Positive tilt, open trough. Cold dry air obliterates moisture source.

Definitely need that more amplified negative tilt. GFS also back off southerly track of new year's storm. Guess thing to take away is still the amount of inconsistency that's present. At-least GFS isn't going against logic anymore.

[richtrav]

On this day, December 18, 1983.........

Just a reminder as to what extremes can do be it hot or cold.......

Anyone here remember that? I was 1

I'm sure we'll beat that record one day. We beat the snowfall record for a single day, so we can beat this!

I remember it (in San Antonio), I was a senior in high school. It sucked worse than the '89 freeze, which at least didn't last as long. Now the '85 snow was actually a lot of fun - and I hate cold weather. I seriously doubt the record duration for DFW will be broken in our lifetimes, I don't even think 1899 stayed below freezing that long.

[iorange55]

DFW NWS discussion

THE FOCUS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT TO THE STRONG FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND CHRISTMAS. THE MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE DAY 5-6 RANGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE FOR DAY 7 AND BEYOND. BY SUNDAY EVENING...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
IF THIS OCCURS...THIS WILL SEND THE COLD FRONT SOUTH 12-24 HOURS
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY
12Z CHRISTMAS MORNING AND THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER. THIS
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH...WHICH SLOWS ITS
EASTERN PROGRESSION...AND MOVES IT SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AS
AN OPEN WAVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING RAIN AND
PERHAPS BRIEF SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN CWA...IF THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES BEFORE THE PRECIP SHUTS DOWN. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
OPEN...BUT IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS
MOVEMENT. BY CHRISTMAS NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A 20 POP CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE CHRISTMAS NIGHT PERIOD IS NOT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE MUST STRESS
THAT THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CHRISTMAS NIGHT IS GOING
TO DIRECTLY BE INFLUENCED BY THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY SCENARIO FOR
NORTH TEXAS...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL APPEAR LOW...BUT NON-ZERO.

Let's see where the models take us today, I have a feeling they might start going back to what they were seeing a few days ago.

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS...

THE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AT THIS POINT. A VERY POTENT UPPER
TROF IS FCST TO DIG ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY MIDWEEK...BRINGING A
SHOT OF VERY COLD CANADIAN AIR. THE GFS IS A GOOD 6-12 HRS BEHIND
THE EURO WITH THIS FEATURE...AND NEITHER HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT. BOTH HAVE INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY
OF WINTRY PRECIP. POPS IN THE EXTENDED HAVE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT A
CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF BOTH MODELS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE AND WINTER WEATHER. /12/

[Portastorm]

So much for those who scoffed that this was not a pattern change. We have dust storm warnings out for the Panhandle and South Plains, we have a freeze coming again to most of Texas, and we have several potential winter weather threats next week. So much for that "zonal flow."

Now, here are some of the more interesting snippets about next week from various NWSFOs across Texas. Enjoy!

Fort Worth:
THE FOCUS FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT TO THE STRONG FRONT
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND CHRISTMAS. THE MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE DAY 5-6 RANGE...BUT
SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE FOR DAY 7 AND BEYOND. BY SUNDAY EVENING...A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LEAD SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
IF THIS OCCURS...THIS WILL SEND THE COLD FRONT SOUTH 12-24 HOURS
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY
12Z CHRISTMAS MORNING AND THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS LATER. THIS
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE PLAINS. THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS DEEPENS THE TROUGH...WHICH SLOWS ITS
EASTERN PROGRESSION...AND MOVES IT SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS AS
AN OPEN WAVE CHRISTMAS NIGHT. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING RAIN AND
PERHAPS BRIEF SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN CWA...IF THE COLDEST AIR
ARRIVES BEFORE THE PRECIP SHUTS DOWN. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH
OPEN...BUT IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS
MOVEMENT. BY CHRISTMAS NIGHT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SOLUTION WOULD MEAN LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL
WITH THE FRONT. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH A 20 POP CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE CHRISTMAS NIGHT PERIOD IS NOT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT
THE BEST CHANCES WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WE MUST STRESS
THAT THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CHRISTMAS NIGHT IS GOING
TO DIRECTLY BE INFLUENCED BY THE TIMING...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...WE CANNOT RULE OUT ANY SCENARIO FOR
NORTH TEXAS...BUT AT THIS TIME THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL APPEAR LOW...BUT NON-ZERO.

Austin/San Antonio:
MID-LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z RUNS DEPICT THE FRONT TO BE A
BIT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED...WITH A FROPA TIMING OF
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LOW. FOR THE TIME BEING...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THEN CLEARING OUT BEFORE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
SETTLE IN. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS SUBTLE TIMING/TRACK/STRENGTH DIFFERENCES OF THE
UPPER LOW AND FRONT COULD MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SORT OF
WINTER PRECIP MIX TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE HILL COUNTRY/ADJACENT
AREAS.

Houston/Galveston:
THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH MONDAY WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE CHRISTMAS WEATHER. EXTENDED MODELS ALL SUGGEST
RAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS ARE MORE SPREAD OUT
THAN YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL CHANCE POPS IN THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE...THIS RECENT MODEL VARIANCE LOWERS CONFIDENCE
ON THE TIMING OF HOLIDAY RAIN AND TO THE EXTENT OF HEAVIER WEATHER.
AS OF NOW...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WILL BE A CHRISTMAS DAY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WILL KEEP THE DAY MILD...OVERCAST AND WET....WITH A
CHILLY START TO WEDNESDAY. THE CHRISTMAS DAY TEMPERATURE FORECAST
IS STILL UP IN THE AIR AS IT ALL DEPENDS UPON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. THOSE WISHING FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS WILL HAVE TO TRAVEL
FAR NORTH OR WEST AS THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION
IS EXTREMELY LOW.

Amarillo:
CHRISTMAS DAY...
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP BUT SEEM TO BE TRENDING TOWARD
A WEAKER...MORE OPEN...AND FURTHER NORTH UPR WAVE. THIS MEANS
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS AROUND THE
PANHANDLES...THOUGH THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE.
AND THOUGH CONSENSUS MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING AWAY
FROM A SIGNIFICANT CHRISTMAS SNOW...THERE ARE STILL MODEL RUNS OUT
THERE /IE THE 06Z GFS/ THAT WANT TO HIT THE PANHANDLES WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...FELT IT PRUDENT TO
INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUE. ONE
THING DOES LOOKS FOR SURE...AND THAT IS A MAJOR COOL DOWN FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AT THE LATEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH AND ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES SOUTH.

Lubbock:
DID BOOST WIND SPEEDS UP A COUPLE MPH THIS WEEKEND ON THE CAPROCK AS
WE`LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO RID THE REGION OF VERY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS AND CONSEQUENTLY DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS TAPPING HIGHER
MOMENTUM AIR. THIS MOISTURE VOID REMAINS A BIT OF A NEGATIVE FOR
PRECIP CHANCES AS THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OR WEAK UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE SRN GREAT PLAINS EITHER CHRISTMAS EVE OR DAY...
DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE DAMPENED
WITH THIS WAVE THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF LATER RUNS REVERT BACK TO A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE AT SOME POINT
AS THE PARENT LOW IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. 00Z GEFS AND 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHARE A REASONABLY LOW
500MB HEIGHT STANDARD DEVIATION THROUGH 00Z TUE BEFORE INCREASING
MARKEDLY THEREAFTER. WHILE THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST REMAINS
QUITE MURKY...CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG POLAR OR ARCTIC INTRUSION IS
MORE CERTAIN COME CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING IN THE NRN ROCKIES WILL
HAVE EXITED STAGE RIGHT AND ALLOWED A COLD DOME TO BE RELEASED
SOUTHWARD. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE MISLEADING CLIMO
TEMP CURVE OF MOS GUIDANCE WHICH FAR TOO OFTEN MASKS THE TRUE
INTENSITY OF SUCH DISTANT COLD DUMPS.

[Ntxw]

Love it Portastorm, as a weather enthusiast can't be more excited to see so many different aspects of it! As for next week, we are in the model 'blind zone' as we saw yesterday with all kinds of separation. Lets see what whacky solutions we get today, by Friday (Nam's) range a good forecast will likely appear.

[WacoWx]

Let's see where the models take us today, I have a feeling they might start going back to what they were seeing a few days ago.

If I'm not mistaken, didn't the models back off of Snowpocalypse 2010 a few days preceding the actual event, and then a day or two before went back to the original line of thinking? I know I'm generalizing all of the models here, but I feel like there is somewhat of an expand/contract process that these models go through leading up to a major event. For some reason that comes to mind.

Or, maybe I'm just grasping at my wishcast.

[iorange55]

Let's see where the models take us today, I have a feeling they might start going back to what they were seeing a few days ago.

If I'm not mistaken, didn't the models back off of Snowpocalypse 2010 a few days preceding the actual event, and then a day or two before went back to the original line of thinking? I know I'm generalizing all of the models here, but I feel like there is somewhat of an expand/contract process that these models go through leading up to a major event. For some reason that comes to mind.

Or, maybe I'm just grasping at my wishcast.

Sometimes it seems like the models will show something in the long range, find a different solution in the medium-range and then come back to what they were showing the long range a few days before the storm. However, I am not sure if there is any evidence supporting that. It's most likely just the models struggling with the pattern. Flip-flopping will happen when a big storm like this is coming down the pipe.

I don't necessarily think the models always come back to what they were showing in the long range, I just think sometimes it turns out that what they were showing in the long range was right.

We'll just have to wait and see!

[Comanche]

I am not a good model output reader, can anyone shed light on what the 0z runs showed? Still cold or did they back off? What do you guys think here on temps?

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

If you love like a bunch of us do, you will like what Larry Cosgrove has to say today. My winter clothes collection might actually get some multiple uses in the next few weeks!

http://www.examiner.com/article/weather ... er-19-2012

I believe that the "Christmas Plus" storm will be the feature which finally drives truly cold, Arctic values into Houston by the middle of next week. In addition to a plethora of travel challenges due to intense thunderstorms, heavy rain, howling winds and a massive winter storm coverage, the giant cyclone will help to set up a vast blocking signature across most of northern Canada. If so, the recent CFS outlook calling for widespread record cold across much of the nation for January could become reality.

[ouamber]

Why do I continue to torture myself with long range models that never come true!!! And why is Larry Cosgrove mentioning a major after Christmas storm 25-27 that the models have pretty much done away with for OK/TX?