SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

[vbhoutex]

The latest from Jeff makes it look dicey for SE TX:

Significant storm system heading for TX.

Major weather impacts starting tonight for all areas

Heavy rainfall and flooding possible near the coast, snow and sleet likely interior regions with accumulations.

Discussion:
Impressive upper level storm system over southern Arizona is making the treck toward TX this morning. A weak surface cold front has moved through all of SE TX and is stalling over the coastal bend and NW Gulf, but this has allowed a very dry air mass at the surface to move into the region from the NE providing low dewpoints and setting the stage for a winter mix over our N and NE counties. Surface low will rapidly form over S TX this afternoon and quickly deepen while moving NE up the TX coast ahead of the strong forcing from the approaching upper level storm. Tremendous moisture will overrun the returning warm front with clouds rapidly developing and lowering and light rain breaking out over Matagorda Bay by early evening. Rain will quickly spread across all of SC and SE TX by late tonight. Forecast soundings over our NE counties do show the threat for precipitation starting as sleet/snow late tonight from roughly Madisonville to Lufkin.

Surface low really deepens early Sunday while moving up the TX coast with pressures falling to 1005mb. Very strong ESE winds will develop SE of the low with high SCA/low end gale conditions likely over the upper TX coastal waters Sunday. Widespread thunderstorms and heavy rains will advance across the entire region by early Sunday morning as both surface low and warm front move into SE TX. Still hard to determine where the warm front will end up, but along and south of this boundary will favor an excessive rainfall/flooding threat.

Strong low pressure will move ENE into SC LA by Sunday evening ending the rainfall of most of the area. Strong cold air advection will drive temperatures into the 30's by Monday morning.

Given the vast impacts this system is going to produce, will break each one out below:

Rainfall:
Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" is likely with isolated totals upwards of 4 inches espcailly along and S of I-10. Moisture levels are forecast to reach at least 200% above normal for early January supporting an excessive rainfall threat. Hourly rainfall rates of 1-1.5 inches will be possible under the stornger storms. Still expect a period of training cells near the warm front and this is where the greatest flooding threat will be.

Wind:
Deepening low pressure will produce a period of strong winds across the region, especially near the coast. Winds will shift to the ESE and SE tonight and increase into the 20-30mph range with gust to 40mph along the coastal locations. Winds will then shift to the NW and WNW behind the low on Sunday on the order fo 15-25mph and gusty. A wind advisory may be required for the coastal counties this evening. A few severe thunderstorms south of the warm front may produce damaging winds of 50-60mph early Sunday.

Tides:
Developing strong onshore flow will result in water level rises along the upper TX coast tonight into Sunday morning. Tides are forecast to reach 2.0-3.0 feet above normal by early Sunday morning possibly resulting in minor overwash on the west side of Galveston Bay, the west end of Galveston Island, Bolivar Peninsula, and the coastal beaches of Brazoria and Matagorda Counties. At this time significant coastal flooding is not expected.

Sleet/Snow and Accumulations:
Latest development overnight has been the trending downward of temperatures and profiles over our northern counties on Sunday as the upper level storm moves overhead. Forecast soundings for Lufkin and across our northern counties of (Houston, Trinity, Polk, and Madison) support precipitation starting as sleet/snow tonight then changing to rain early Sunday and then back to possibly heavy wet snow/sleet by noon Sunday. Little to no accumulation is expected tonight, but back edge of rain shield on Sunday midday may produce a period of heavy wet snow with rapid accumulations over the above mentioned counties. Along and north of a line from Madisonville to Groveton accumulations of 1-2 inches will be possible. Accumulations of 3-6 inches are possible northeast of our area where Winter Storm Watches have been issued. Winter Storm Watches or Advisories may be required for the above mentioned counties by this evening.

Temperatures will fall below freezing by late Sunday afternoon from Madisonville to Groveton resulting in freezing of water on bridges and overpasses. Freezing line will progress southward to College Station to Huntsville to Livingston by midnight with the threat for light freezing drizzle. Road surface still wet may freeze and ice over and travel north of Hunstville by late Sunday may become hazardous due to ice and snow accumulations over our northern counties into N and NE TX.

Current forecast hold temperatures above freezing across the rest of the area and do not expect any icing of bridges and overpasses.

Next Week:
Much focus on the near term with significant system approaching. Still looking cold next week with cloudy skies behind the arctic boundary Tuesday-Thursday. Models still trying to bring a weak short wave across Wednesday night/Thursday morning in the cold air and generating some QPF. Would be looking at P-type problems if moisture is able to reach the ground, but for now will go with just an increase in mid level clouds and await better model agreement. Will maintain only about a 5-8 degree range in lows/highs Tue-Thurs given expected clouds...so most of the time will be spent in the 30's.

[JenBayles]

"tremendous moisture" ... groan....

We did a major leaf and gutter clean-out yesterday in anticipation of heavy rain. Boo hisss!

[southerngale]

‎90% snow/sleet is the forecast for Jasper tomorrow, about an hour north of here. My forecast is 90% rain. I wish the wintry fun would shift south a little!!

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
103 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-090600-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
103 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY...

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...A WINTRY MIX
OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND STRONG WINDS
AND HIGH TIDES ALONG THE COAST.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN
TEXAS TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST
ON SUNDAY. RAIN WILL BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO LOUISIANA BY SUNRISE. RAIN WILL BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND SOME STORMS MAY BE
STRONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.

COLD AIR FILTERING INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN TO MIX WITH SLEET BEGINNING LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...NO SLEET
ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY EAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM SUNDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 35 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER COASTAL SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

THESE STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL RESULT IN TIDES RUNNING 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK TIDE LEVELS REACHING FROM 2 TO 3 FEET MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER. TIDES WILL DROP RAPIDLY LATER IN THE DAY AS
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY ALONG THE COAST.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM EVENT.

$$

SHAMBURGER

[vbhoutex]

"tremendous moisture" ... groan....

We did a major leaf and gutter clean-out yesterday in anticipation of heavy rain. Boo hisss!

I did the same. Almost got water in the house the other day it came down so hard and fast.

[vbhoutex]

Latest I found out of HGX

POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS TEXAS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO
THE AREA. A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT RESULTING
IN A RAPID INCREASE IN MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PWS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.1-1.5 INCHES OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGLY DIFFLUENT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL SET UP ALONG THE COAST WITH AN 850 MB
BOUNDARY SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PORTION OF THE CWA. BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THESE TWO BOUNDARIES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES ESPECIALLY
OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
GRIDS AND HWO WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING. TREMENDOUS AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR ARE FORECAST BY THE MODELS (HELICITIES > 800
M2/S2). MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WARM FRONT
SURGING INLAND OVER THE COASTAL ZONES FOR A FEW HOURS FROM AROUND
10-16Z SUNDAY. SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS A SEE TEXT FOR THE COASTAL
ZONES. THE DYNAMICS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE WHICH
WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL AND MARINE ZONES DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND WATERSPOUTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.
WILL MENTION SEVERE THREAT IN THE HWO BUT NOT THE GRIDS. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR ISOLATED THUNDER FOR INLAND AREAS AS WELL.
THE HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY AFTN WITH
WRAP AROUND PRECIP LINGERING OVER NRN ZONES INTO THE AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE POTENTIAL...STRONG WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE COASTAL AND MARINE AREAS...WITH ELEVATED
TIDES AS WELL. SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY FOR COASTAL
AREAS.

WINTER WEATHER IS ANOTHER THREAT AS WELL OVER OUR NE ZONES. THE
GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KLFK INDICATES PRECIP STARTING OFF AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX LATE TONIGHT...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN FOR A FEW
HOURS IN THE MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO A WINTER MIX IN THE
AFTN. 00Z NAM SHOWED A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT WHILE THE ECMWF WAS A
GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN IS
HOUSTON...MADISON...TRINITY...AND NORTHERN POLK COUNTIES. WILL
FORECAST A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IN
THIS AREA...WITH SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING VERY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES SUNDAY EVENING. IF THE
CHANGEOVER OCCURS IN THE MORNING...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY
SLEET OR WET SNOW TO FALL IN THIS AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
HAVE HELD OFF ON A WATCH FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED ONE IN A LATER
FORECAST PACKAGE. FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO IMPACT AREAS AS
FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS COLLEGE STATION...HUNTSVILLE...AND
LIVINGSTON SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...PRECIP AT THIS POINT WOULD BE
VERY LIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS EITHER NON-EXISTENT OR STAYING IN
THE ADVISORY RANGE.

THE WEATHER WILL TURN SHARPLY COLDER SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE STORM WITH MAX TEMPS OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY MOST AREAS.
COLDER WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
SECONDARY MODIFIED ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SE TX
TUESDAY MORNING. COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO THE TEENS/LOW 20S.
HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN COLDER ECMWF AND GFS FOR TEMPS. IF SKIES
CAN CLEAR ENOUGH THAN A HARD FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NRN
ZONES TUE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WED NIGHT. FURTHER SOUTH...ONLY
A LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK FORMING. ALTHOUGH SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT SLEET AND POSSIBLY
SNOW THIS PERIOD...HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST AS LOW
LEVELS ARE VERY DRY. MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE
30S WITH THE CLOUD COVER. WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST THU
NIGHT AS SFC HIGH MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER
TEMPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

[JenBayles]

I couldn't stand it. There's a homeless dude that hangs out near the Wal-Mart grocery on Hiway 6 and Rippling water near our church. Dave's struck up a friendship with him since last Spring. He's not your usual homeless dude in that 99% of the time he politely turns down offers of money or food. He's mostly happy just to have someone to shoot the breeze with. When the Christmas Eve storm rolled in, we got him a couple nights at the Scottish Inn. I ran into him this afternoon and asked if he was going inside tonight. Nope. I got him bundled off to the Scottish Inn again. It's not going to be a night fit for man nor beast whether it's frozen stuff or not, and I couldn't sleep knowing that someone I personally know is stuck out there when I could do something about it. We're as ready as we can be for our typical Bear Creek flash flood and Homeless Dude is tucked in so bring it on!

[iorange55]

I couldn't stand it. There's a homeless dude that hangs out near the Wal-Mart grocery on Hiway 6 and Rippling water near our church. Dave's struck up a friendship with him since last Spring. He's not your usual homeless dude in that 99% of the time he politely turns down offers of money or food. He's mostly happy just to have someone to shoot the breeze with. When the Christmas Eve storm rolled in, we got him a couple nights at the Scottish Inn. I ran into him this afternoon and asked if he was going inside tonight. Nope. I got him bundled off to the Scottish Inn again. It's not going to be a night fit for man nor beast whether it's frozen stuff or not, and I couldn't sleep knowing that someone I personally know is stuck out there when I could do something about it. We're as ready as we can be for our typical Bear Creek flash flood and Homeless Dude is tucked in so bring it on!

That is awesome.

[KatDaddy]

Totally awesome Jen. You guys are great.

[JenBayles]

Just paying it forward. We've had a lot of blessings come our way from unexpected sources, so when my conscience gets nudged I listen.

But back to weather - rain's moving in fast from the west. When these storms really get rolling after midnight, will they slow down? Any training forecast?

[srainhoutx]

21Z SREF suggests a closed upper low over SE TX by hour 24. We will see. It does look like an intersting 24-36 hour...and then that front...

[Jagno]

I don't mind the rain or even a little cold but I cannot handle the intense winds. I live outside of the city and I have open fields to my west and south which is where 80% of our strongest winds come from. I am tired of replacing wooden fences, decks, awnings, gazebo's, outbuildings, my roof and even my house in 2005.

I work at a major grocery market and management heeded the warnings for a change! They tripled the orders and had us put out pallets of Guidry's Creole Seasoning Mix, Tony Chachere's, green onions, celery, bell peppers, yellow onions, roux, gumbo mixes and bases(for our yankee friends who can't cook it from scratch)LOL, chicken, sausage and seafood. He said, "It's gonna be some serious GUMBO WEATHER". It's amazing how much we've sold already. Once the rain starts tonight we'll be sold out completely by noon tomorrow.

I'm going get some more firewood in the morning. Out here we tend to lose electricity in extremely high winds.

Keep us updated on conditions in your area.

[JenBayles]

Now that's a manager with a brain for a change! If I hadn't done the gumbo routine last weekend, this one would be it. Gonna settle for a shrimp etouffe instead.

Check out the Texas state radar. The further west you go, the nastier it gets. Yowza!

[vbhoutex]

Waking up to 39f and rain here in W Houston. YUCK!!!

[Jagno]

The wind has been terrible all day. We started out with vagrants catching our city's largest all wood children's park on fire early this morning. I'm sure what would have been minimal in normal times became a towering inferno instantly in these winds. It's sad but becoming an all too familiar scene in this economy.

I was able to get all of my firewood unloaded just as the morning rains began. It certainly has come in handy today. I must be getting old because for the life of me I simply cannot understand this new winter fashion statement of short soccer shorts and either cowboy boots are mud boots worn with the shorts. Geesh! Another mind number is those with pants and big coats on and wearing flip flops.

[SETXPTNeches]

Hi Jagno, I am new to the board but have read for years! And I have to agree with you on the fashion statement...Coats, long pants and flip flops drive me crazy....

[djmikey]

Honestly, I am very dissapointed at the whole event that unfolded yesterday and for the upcoming week for SETX. I followed this thread and the Texas Winter thread, and what I got here in the Beaumont area was a little rain, little wind and the usual temp drop. Pfft. After all the hype of the scare of the sub-freezing temps thats suppose to happen this coming week and the "scary" "flooding" rains we WERE suppose to get, everything looks like the typical we've seen already this winter.

I follow these threads for the latest info on whats to come and what will happen, but this whole recent rains and this weeks temps sure made me realize that the majority is hype until 1-2 days of the event. Why even discuss these events if they change 10 times before they unfold? Anyway...just dissapointed.

[Tireman4]

Why even discuss these events if they change 10 times before they unfold?

Because it is fun.....

[srainhoutx]

Well we certainly had more further W. A lot more. We in the Houston area watched you folks in B/PT get days of rain while we had nada for months on end. Sorry for your disappointment, but we folks further W are very grateful for the rainfall. Also folks near Victoria were thankful for the advice since that area had severe weather and a reported tornado.

[jg5894]

djmikey,

I can't tell you how many times i have gone to bed excited and woking up dissapointed only to do it all over again. But when it all pans out it makes it all worth it. And as others said it's fun! There is always the next storm to look foward to!

[vbhoutex]

Well it appears we have reached our high of 43f today as the temp has started to drop slowly. At least on OCM is calling for snow flurries mid week with the short wave expected to come through. I will take a look later and see what I think. right now I think it is COLD!!