Texas Winter 2020-2021

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I knew a northern shifty was possible 5 days out, doesnt look good for SE Tx. Happy for the North Tx crew though!

[Cerlin]

6z NAM is the first one to be in a decent range for this event and it sets up a near perfect track for DFW. The ending frame has a majority of Texas covered in snow showers and dropping 8 inches west of DFW without it even being done.

[cheezyWXguy]

6z NAM looks awesome for northern half of Texas. The run ends right as the heaviest snow begins moving across DFW

[TropicalTundra]

I love how TWC app says “potential winter storm”

[Cerlin]

https://i.ibb.co/NCmMVWb/9-D48-E4-A2-C068-4-E3-E-A659-318-A78343-F72.png

(I keep trying my best but I’m not sure I’m formatting these images right)

[gpsnowman]

Wow almost 6 pages since I went to bed. The overnight trends are amazing. Certainly having Feb 2010 flashbacks.

[EnnisTx]

Looking like a big win along the I 20 corridor and all of North Texas with some 2in per hour rates in heavy banding. Holding my breath as I'm smack dab in the middle of that. GOOD MORNING SNOW ENTHUSIAST!

[Brent]

This feels almost too good to be true guys like it's been 5 years of looking into a light for a few flakes

[WacoWx]

Remember the disappointment of getting burned by the models? I do. Not even getting excited until tomorrow afternoon, then the sled gets dusted off on Saturday for a full dress rehearsal, assuming models remain the same.

[rwfromkansas]

Okay, while still cautious, I’m getting excited. That looks amazing.

[benrayrog]

Life seems so much more satisfying when there is legitimate winter weather talk for north and east Texas.

[bubba hotep]

06z GFS & GEFS shift back south. Still a long way to go.

[rwfromkansas]

Of course. I posted a cautionary watch the weather on FB, so now it trends away. Lol.

I am hoping it can cool to 30 or so to help increase ratios.

[cheezyWXguy]

06z GFS & GEFS shift back south. Still a long way to go.

Kind of, the 500mb low track looks the same, but slower than the 0z. I think it’s surface depictions are too conservative with surface temps, considering other models forecasting accumulations in Dfw are generally showing a similar track. Didn’t look at the gefs yet though

[Brent]

Of course. I posted a cautionary watch the weather on FB, so now it trends away. Lol.

I am hoping it can cool to 30 or so to help increase ratios.

I'm so afraid of jinxing this lmao

I've been on a quick trip to Oklahoma but I'm coming back home today and i said today was gonna be the day it got real but I'm still afraid so many busts before

[orangeblood]

06z GFS & GEFS shift back south. Still a long way to go.

Looks like a little wobble which is to be expected...axis is probably narrowed down to 50-75 miles at this point

06Z Euro ENS shifts slightly north with some massive winter storms on numerous ensembles

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS is 5-10 degrees warmer than other models at the onset of precip Sunday. I see nothing at the upper levels or surface that should lead to this warmth. GFS also struggles to get moisture north to I-20.

[bubba hotep]

12z 12k NAM looks great at 84hr. Tad slower than 06z and upper levels look explosive.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NAM shifts slightly south, but is still in very good shape for NTX. I would not get hung up on where within the swatch the highest accumulations are depicted. These are clearly a result of convective banding which is still too far out to accurately resolve. Would like to see that upper low track edge back north a little though

[PTrackerLA]

12z NAM has snow all the way to Houston. Keep some SE Texas hopes up