Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Snowman67]

Thanks for clarifying and sharing that map. I just wanted to make sure I was reading the maps correctly and figured your explanation would educate me (and the others).

I'm guilty of assuming that a 0-degree isotherm on an 850mb map almost always equates to freezing at the surface level and I'm reminded here that is not always the case.

In this case, it's quite odd that the two freezing lines are so far apart. More typically, the surface freeze line is south of the 850mb freeze line. One potential reason for the opposite in this case would be for cloud cover. Clouds would keep temps up at the surface but not at 850mb. Regardless, I think this event has the potential to bring a hard freeze to the upper TX coast next week. Though I'd only forecast upper 20s for lows next Thu, there is the potential for lower 20s. Pains me to say that...

You now have my full attention. What great bike riding weather that would be

[wxman57]

Ok lets be a little clear before people cliff dive. We are being picky at surface features a week out. That being rain/snow line and temps. Don't panic! It is still a very potent storm, the 12z gfs is fine the low heights and big high will drill down the cold.

The event is still mostly out in the low-res part of the GFS run. I don't expect the models to really get a handle on things for another 3-5 days (about 2 days before it starts). Expect lots of jumping around each model run until then.

[Ntxw]

^ and thank you wxman for posting the euro qpf maps, my source doesnt go out quite as far so I had to extrapolate, much appreciated !

[wxman57]

^ and thank you wxman for posting the euro qpf maps, my source doesnt go out quite as far so I had to extrapolate, much appreciated !

I don't buy the Euro runs. They just don't look "right" for next week.

[Ntxw]

^ and thank you wxman for posting the euro qpf maps, my source doesnt go out quite as far so I had to extrapolate, much appreciated !

I don't buy the Euro runs. They just don't look "right" for next week.

Very much agree, how many storms drive up into high pressure and stalls with a kicker off the west coast? Not many that's for sure!

[Ntxw]

For travelers the coming week. Things continue to look fine the rest of this week and right up into the Holiday. Things change on the trip back anywhere from the 26th, 27th, and 28th. Check your flights and road plans in case changes might be needed. Even if there is no wintry conditions directly, the storm will still impact a large chunk of the country.

Also be aware that if you plan to stay longer, the days leading up to New Years may be problematic as well, the pattern will repeat itself.

[weatherguy425]

For travelers the coming week. Things continue to look fine the rest of this week and right up into the Holiday. Things change on the trip back anywhere from the 26th, 27th, and 28th. Check your flights and road plans in case changes might be needed. Even if there is no wintry conditions directly, the storm will still impact a large chunk of the country.

Also be aware that if you plan to stay longer, the days leading up to New Years may be problematic as well, the pattern will repeat itself.

2nd system could have a fresh snow-pack and even colder air to deal with come 12/30-1/1

[iorange55]

The 12z GFS looks fine to me. Still shows a potent storm, cold air driving down...it's just impossible to sort out the details this far out. And even further out, the 12z run shows extremely cold temperatures and another winter storm.

Nothing to panic about, at all.

[Ntxw]

Want to see a model at it's best? 12z Euro sends the storm to Illinois on Christmas! #funny

[ouamber]

WOW! The 12Z Euro completely did away with the block and takes the ULL WAAY north...not sure what to believe...was really hoping for some snow across OK/TX...not sure now. Trying not to be a model hugger, but man...that was a downer! Granted, I am not a met, so someone please chime in on what you see:) Is this normal for the Euro?

[iorange55]

WOW! The 12Z Euro completely did away with the block and takes the ULL WAAY north...not sure what to believe...was really hoping for some snow across OK/TX...not sure now. Trying not to be a model hugger, but man...that was a downer! Granted, I am not a met, so someone please chime in on what you see:) Is this normal for the Euro?

No need to worry, this was expected. The flip flopping will continue 'til late this week. I do think the pattern is in our favor, though.

[Ntxw]

Check out the cold air that the omega block will be dislodging from Canada and Alaska, -45F to -50F

[gboudx]

For travelers the coming week. Things continue to look fine the rest of this week and right up into the Holiday. Things change on the trip back anywhere from the 26th, 27th, and 28th. Check your flights and road plans in case changes might be needed. Even if there is no wintry conditions directly, the storm will still impact a large chunk of the country.

Also be aware that if you plan to stay longer, the days leading up to New Years may be problematic as well, the pattern will repeat itself.

Thanks for the tip. We're coming back from NOLA on the 26th unless the roads are a skating rink, which doesn't look or sound like an issue. Still, I hate driving in rain, and especially a rainy interstate at night. Need to try and get back before sundown.

[wxman57]

WOW! The 12Z Euro completely did away with the block and takes the ULL WAAY north...not sure what to believe...was really hoping for some snow across OK/TX...not sure now. Trying not to be a model hugger, but man...that was a downer! Granted, I am not a met, so someone please chime in on what you see:) Is this normal for the Euro?

With this type of flow pattern, I'd expect such wild fluctuations from model run to model run. Looking at model runs 7-10 days out is interesting, but they're clearly clueless. 12Z Euro has no snow in TX or OK next Tue-Wed.

[Ntxw]

In other news, DFW is at a whopping 76 degrees beating the previous record on this date of 73! I know Wxman57 is loving it

Edit: Correction, the 73 is tomorrow's record (will likely be broken too). Today's is 81

[Comanche]

Wxman, what do you expect to transpire in the coming two-weeks? Do you think we indeed flip this pattern over to a cold pattern?

[Tireman4]

We are sitting at 79 now.....record is 82...hummm...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

77.0F here. Sun feels hot too, not like a winter sun. Feels like spring.

[ouamber]

Tulsa TSA NWS put this out about an hour ago....and they are NEVER the ones to put out ANYTHING EARLY!

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
LATEST LONGER RANGE NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS
OR MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THE 25TH OR 26TH.

A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW THIS WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WILL ACTUALLY UNFOLD. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...EMERGENCY
PREPAREDNESS PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..

''THE CONFIDENCE IN A WARM/BREEZY AND DRIER PATTERN SLOWLY RETURNING
TO A MORE HUMID PATTERN GOES AWAY RATHER COMPLETELY BY TUESDAY.
SEPARATION BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS INCREASED IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS TAKING A SLOWER...DEEPER INSIDE
SLIDER TYPE UPPER LOW DOWN THE WEST COAST BEFORE SHIFTING IT WESTWARD
OVER TEXAS. THIS WOULD KEEP ANY FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MAKING IT
THROUGH UNTIL WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST...WHEREAS THE ECMWF TRENDED A
LITTLE WEAKER...AND MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER LOW PREFERRING
A TRACK THROUGH THE PLAINS AND THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A MODERATE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGEST THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS A WESTERN/STRONGER OUTLIER AND LEANED
THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECWMF. BUT WITH TWO TOTALLY DIFFERENT
SYNOPTIC SOLUTIONS/IMPACTS FROM OUR MORE TRUSTED LONG TERM GUIDANCE
AND A FAIRLY ENORMOUS SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FORECAST FROM
CHRISTMAS DAY AND BEYOND IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.''