Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

Ukmet-you can see the trend below. If Euro holds, then it will be hard for FW to ignore the trend and likely will have to start mentioning significant snow accumulation possible for the WFO.




From earlier 12z



It will be exciting to look at mesoscale banding and lightning with this system as there are some indications of strong convection going on in the cold air.

[Captmorg70]

Anyone look at the RGEM?

Only out to 84, but that last frame looks like a good looking snowstorm winding up for someone...

[Ntxw]

Anyone look at the RGEM?

Only out to 84, but that last frame looks like a good looking snowstorm winding up for someone...

I've noticed over the years, the RGEM tends to be the higher resolution reflection of the Canadian. It does tend to lean slightly cold, but overall goes with what the parent model does.

[Brent]

Y’all enjoy and deserve it for sure. It’s gonna be too painful to watch from here. I’m out

Maybe I’ll drive if it gets close

If it does pan out that way, I would definitely make the the trip if you can. Especially since it is a weekend. Us folks here in DFW know too well when it's oh so close and instead it's Abilene, or WF, and OKC.

Yeah even if DFW gets buried Sunday I still have no regrets driving to Abilene last week it was fun

[Cpv17]

I wouldn’t give up hope yet for anyone who lives in central or southeast TX. Still plenty of time but don’t get your hopes up is all I can tell ya!

[Captmorg70]

Anyone look at the RGEM?

Only out to 84, but that last frame looks like a good looking snowstorm winding up for someone...

I've noticed over the years, the RGEM tends to be the higher resolution reflection of the Canadian. It does tend to lean slightly cold, but overall goes with what the parent model does.

Ive actually always assumed it was. Because it does follow the CMC closely.

[bubba hotep]

I'm out. I'll check in later for Brent's classic Euro updates. Then tomorrow, "waiting up for the Euro" will kick in for me!

[rwfromkansas]

A lot can go wrong...the cold isn’t there or it goes too far north. Worried it may keep going north and be OK again.

But, it’s the most potential in years.

[Ralph's Weather]

A lot can go wrong...the cold isn’t there or it goes too far north. Worried it may keep going north and be OK again.

But, it’s the most potential in years.

I don't think warmth or a north trend are an issue for N or NE TX. We are within 100 hours and the surface low is depicted on the coast with the upper low crossing Central Texas and cutting into Louisiana along with an existing cold air mass before the system arrives. I am struggling to find the negatives because I don't want to be burned.

[Haris]

Weird..

[Cerlin]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/9NWzm6J/8271-A603-DC71-48-B3-BB2-B-77-F5-BE353091.png [/url]

Weird..

This seems to be an outlier given that most other ensembles/deterministic models have shifted northward.

[Cerlin]

00z Euro is coming in and just based off of 500mb and zonal wind patterns, it looks like it will have a slightly northern shift too.

[Brent]

Mmm come to papa



Looking good



DFW can't get out of the "mix"

[Ntxw]

Euro is a big hit for the northern (and northern part of central TX) of the state.

In fact compared to the 12z it shifted a little northward with the heaviest axis.

If the onset is a tad cooler at the surface we could probably add a few more inches to that total.

[Brent]

[Ralph's Weather]

:froze:

https://i.ibb.co/QMr7xTR/sn10-acc-us-sc-20.png

I'll happily take over 1" QPF with the column below freezing for the whole event. 8-12" of snow sounds pretty nice. That is showing a 700mi x 150mi swath with >6" of snow. Though in convection and some places would easily see over a foot.

[Ralph's Weather]

What's amazing about this storm is that most all models have had this system dumping snow on Texas since Sunday though on Monday they shifted it south, and as expected they have brought it back north over the past couple days. I expect that the models have this thing pretty well handled though a shift 100 miles north or south is possible.

ECMWF Hi-Res 01-03 12Z to 01-07 0Z Total Snow Accumulation 10:1 loop

01-07 0Z Total Snow Accumulation 10:1 All models loop

[Cerlin]

A concern could be (because this is showing the potential for convective banding and 2 inch/hr rates of snow) wet bulb cooling that might plummet temperatures even further which could cause some dangerous travel conditions. If the models uphold a large snow event for DFW over the next 24 hours, I expect maybe to see some watches issued and for all the mets around the area to discuss the possibility of snow. There is almost unanimous model agreement 90 hours out...and while I’m still expecting a bust, it seems like this could be our ticket and a big one at that.

[Ntxw]

What's amazing about this storm is that most all models have had this system dumping snow on Texas since Sunday though on Monday they shifted it south, and as expected they have brought it back north over the past couple days. I expect that the models have this thing pretty well handled though a shift 100 miles north or south is possible.

This will likely be historic for somebody in the northern half of the state. The operational guidance tends to be a little coarse so we could see some wild totals once in the high resolution range. There has not only been a northern trend, but also a SLOWING trend which will only increase the totals and duration should that continue.

[Cerlin]

EPS signals are just insane. Average for the Euro Ensemble Mean is 3 inches for DFW with snow probability of greater than 6 inches at 30%.