Texas Winter 2012-2013

[HockeyTx82]

From the NWS

A strong cold front will bring very cold temperatures to North Texas around Christmas. A large upper low will track through the southern plains behind the front around the 26th. There is still many uncertainties to the track and timing of this low pressure center. The exact track it takes will have a direct impact on whether or not any precipitation and what type of precipitation falls over North Texas. Many of these factors are likely to change over the next several days. Check back through the weekend for updates to the forecast.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=2

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anyone see the crazy Uncle model from our friends to the North?

Joe B has a Tweet feed with the pic...

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/statu ... 93/photo/1


That would be pipe busting stuff for us if it came down this way, I would think?

Saw that this morning. Thats a serious hp and not out of the question with this type of pattern.

[weatherdude1108]

From our friends in the New Braunfels office:

"
Special Weather Statement
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
744 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-181700-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
744 AM CST TUE DEC 18 2012

...A VARIETY OF WEATHER CHANGES ARE COMING TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
IN THE NEXT WEEK...AFTER A WARMING TREND TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS
COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE EAST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A FAST
MOVING PACIFIC COLD FRONT. COOL...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.
A COLD NIGHT WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
20S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
OVER ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS COOLER
THAN USUAL FRIDAY.

A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE WEST. COLDER WEATHER
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK."

[orangeblood]

The CFSv2 model has some of the most extreme temperature anomalies I've ever seen on that model over the central plains in the coming 4-5 weeks. With it coinciding with the coldest time of year, you're looking at the potential to be one of the coldest periods since the 1980's


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Portastorm]

The CFSv2 model has some of the most extreme temperature anomalies I've ever seen on that model over the central plains in the coming 4-5 weeks. With it coinciding with the coldest time of year, you're looking at the potential to be one of the coldest periods since the 1980's


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Here is the image:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Boooooo! (as in the scary boo)

Now I wonder how cold we will be after Christmas.......

Will be loading up on snowballs to send your way.

[orangeblood]

And that image doesn't truly reflect the extremity of the forecast....there are some 10 day periods of 15-25 F below normal as an entire 10 day average

[wxman57]

192, day after Christmas, there's a blizzard from Waco north on the Euro. Pretty much identical to the GFS. Also is trying to make it snow in the teens. Some snow for Porta too!

Okay, you pulled me out of lurking. Good work, Ntxw.

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro high-res version snow accumulation product and it has a light dusting of snow along the Red River. Heavy snow NE OK to Iowa. Nothing as far south as Dallas, much less Waco. It doesn't even have a freeze to Houston post-Christmas. Let's see what the 12Z says. This event is just too far out for much detail. I did compare the 00Z GFS and Euro 500 pattern and they are much closer than they were 12Z yesterday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

192, day after Christmas, there's a blizzard from Waco north on the Euro. Pretty much identical to the GFS. Also is trying to make it snow in the teens. Some snow for Porta too!

Okay, you pulled me out of lurking. Good work, Ntxw.

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro high-res version snow accumulation product and it has a light dusting of snow along the Red River. Heavy snow NE OK to Iowa. Nothing as far south as Dallas, much less Waco. It doesn't even have a freeze to Houston post-Christmas. Let's see what the 12Z says. This event is just too far out for much detail. I did compare the 00Z GFS and Euro 500 pattern and they are much closer than they were 12Z yesterday.

I can never get a good graphic of the Euro other than RyanMaue's site which is now with weatherbell. Link for a good site?


I think if the moisture is there, could rival 2010 storm but with mor wind. Bold statement i know but im thinking the track will be similar. Maybe a tad north once the low hits the ArkLaTex region.

[Portastorm]

OK Wxman57, not that I doubt you ... I learned years ago that was a fruitless endeavor ... but when I see this map (below), I'm scratching my head about your comment that the 0z Euro doesn't show a freeze for Houston. Look at those 850mb temps! Is this a resolution issue and your access to higher resolution products makes the difference? I'm really curious.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

OK Wxman57, not that I doubt you ... I learned years ago that was a fruitless endeavor ... but when I see this map (below), I'm scratching my head about your comment that the 0z Euro doesn't show a freeze for Houston. Look at those 850mb temps! Is this a resolution issue and your access to higher resolution products makes the difference? I'm really curious.

http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/3881/usatmp850mb216.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I saw that, Portastorm. I plotted the Euro 0C isotherm for the surface and 850mb and it does have the 850mb freeze line way out in the Gulf but the surface freeze line well north of Houston. Here, take a look. The image below is for 12Z the 26th, but the surface freeze line (blue) is well north of the Gulf coast while the 850mb freeze line is way out in the Gulf. Same thing on the morning of the 27th, but each line is a little farther south. Freeze line at the surface dips to around Lafayette to our east but stays well north of the 850mb line. I agree, that's quite odd and I don't believe it.

As for the 00Z Euro snow areas, those are plotted on the map. The map shows 24hr accumulation from 12Z the 25th to 12Z the 26th. It's in goofy units (millimeters of liquid) so you have to do some conversions. 25mm = about an inch of liquid. 1-3mm around the red river would be about 1/2 to 1" snow.

[Portastorm]

Thanks for clarifying and sharing that map. I just wanted to make sure I was reading the maps correctly and figured your explanation would educate me (and the others).

I'm guilty of assuming that a 0-degree isotherm on an 850mb map almost always equates to freezing at the surface level and I'm reminded here that is not always the case.

[wxman57]

Thanks for clarifying and sharing that map. I just wanted to make sure I was reading the maps correctly and figured your explanation would educate me (and the others).

I'm guilty of assuming that a 0-degree isotherm on an 850mb map almost always equates to freezing at the surface level and I'm reminded here that is not always the case.

In this case, it's quite odd that the two freezing lines are so far apart. More typically, the surface freeze line is south of the 850mb freeze line. One potential reason for the opposite in this case would be for cloud cover. Clouds would keep temps up at the surface but not at 850mb. Regardless, I think this event has the potential to bring a hard freeze to the upper TX coast next week. Though I'd only forecast upper 20s for lows next Thu, there is the potential for lower 20s. Pains me to say that...

[Portastorm]

12z GFS running now ... thru 144 hours, the trough digging out west isn't nearly as deep as it was on the 0z run and high pressure coming down from Canada doesn't look quite as strong. Will be interesting to see how the rest of this run shakes out. Again, take each run with a grain of salt (and compare it to the ensembles and to the Euro).

[wxman57]

12z GFS running now ... thru 144 hours, the trough digging out west isn't nearly as deep as it was on the 0z run and high pressure coming down from Canada doesn't look quite as strong. Will be interesting to see how the rest of this run shakes out. Again, take each run with a grain of salt (and compare it to the ensembles and to the Euro).

12Z GFS is MUCH different over Texas on Christmas. Much warmer. Has a slower and deeper trof approaching from the west. May be making a classic mistake in driving the cold air back north ahead of the upper trof.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

On wxmans map, im in that bubble with below freezing in SW Houston. Its the small things.

That is a very large disparity though. What causes this? Stronger than normal winds at the 850-level? These types of cold air outbreaks are typically pretty shallow so i didnt think the difference would be that big.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

12z GFS running now ... thru 144 hours, the trough digging out west isn't nearly as deep as it was on the 0z run and high pressure coming down from Canada doesn't look quite as strong. Will be interesting to see how the rest of this run shakes out. Again, take each run with a grain of salt (and compare it to the ensembles and to the Euro).

12Z GFS is MUCH different over Texas on Christmas. Much warmer. Has a slower and deeper trof approaching from the west. May be making a classic mistake in driving the cold air back north ahead of the upper trof.

The GFS is being the GFS.

[wxman57]

On wxmans map, im in that bubble with below freezing in SW Houston. Its the small things.

That is a very large disparity though. What causes this? Stronger than normal winds at the 850-level? These types of cold air outbreaks are typically pretty shallow so i didnt think the difference would be that big.

That red circle is freezing temps at 850mb (5000 feet above the surface). The blue line is freezing temps at the surface.

Note that the 12Z GFS is still coming in VASTLY different from the 00Z across Texas and the Southern Plains for the 25th-28th. That doesn't mean it's correct, just different. I think it may be making a classic mistake of driving the cold, dense air north into Oklahoma as a warm front ahead of the upper trof.

[Snowman67]

192, day after Christmas, there's a blizzard from Waco north on the Euro. Pretty much identical to the GFS. Also is trying to make it snow in the teens. Some snow for Porta too!

Okay, you pulled me out of lurking. Good work, Ntxw.

I'm looking at the 00Z Euro high-res version snow accumulation product and it has a light dusting of snow along the Red River. Heavy snow NE OK to Iowa. Nothing as far south as Dallas, much less Waco. It doesn't even have a freeze to Houston post-Christmas. Let's see what the 12Z says. This event is just too far out for much detail. I did compare the 00Z GFS and Euro 500 pattern and they are much closer than they were 12Z yesterday.

I agree that their could be large discrepancies either way. I remember just a few years ago when North Texas got pounded with heavy snow - the models were calling for a dusting to an inch or so within 48hrs of the event.

[Ntxw]

Ok lets be a little clear before people cliff dive. We are being picky at surface features a week out. That being rain/snow line and temps. Don't panic! It is still a very potent storm, the 12z gfs is fine the low heights and big high will drill down the cold.