TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

[MiamiensisWx]

Expectations of severe freezes in portions of Texas are equivalent to expectations of snow in Miami, FL. You will be burned if you rely on those operational GFS runs and other long-range guidance. Obviously, since the upcoming chances of a severe freeze event are very low, you cannot imagine the low probabilities for snow in south FL. There have been rare exceptions (i.e. January 1977), but you should usually play by the rules or averages.

Obviously, even that statement isn't very comprehensive, since south FL has been above normal over the past few winters. Don't laugh - statistics do exist here. The urban heat island in MIA, FLL, and PBI may play a greater role than pre-development eras.

Regardless, I apologize for the inconvenient buzzkill, but you shouldn't shoot the messenger. These annual "Texas freeze/snow" threads pop up every year, and the extreme solutions (like tropical cyclones and severe weather) overwhelmingly do not verify. You should always remain cautious about extreme depictions in model runs. These "Texas freeze" and "severe Miller A/B nor'easter" long-range runs are winter's equivalent scenario of that Category 5 into MIA or Long Island, NY on the long-range operational GFS or Euro in summer.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Expectations of severe freezes in portions of Texas are equivalent to expectations of snow in Miami, FL. You will be burned if you rely on those operational GFS runs and other long-range guidance. Obviously, since the upcoming chances of a severe freeze event are very low, you cannot imagine the low probabilities for snow in south FL. There have been rare exceptions (i.e. January 1977), but you should usually play by the rules or averages.

Obviously, even that statement isn't very comprehensive, since south FL has been above normal over the past few winters. Don't laugh - statistics do exist here. The urban heat island in MIA, FLL, and PBI may play a greater role than pre-development eras.

Regardless, I apologize for the inconvenient buzzkill, but you shouldn't shoot the messenger. These annual "Texas freeze/snow" threads pop up every year, and the extreme solutions (like tropical cyclones and severe weather) overwhelmingly do not verify. You should always remain cautious about extreme depictions in model runs. These "Texas freeze" and "severe Miller A/B nor'easter" long-range runs are winter's equivalent scenario of that Category 5 into MIA or Long Island, NY on the long-range operational GFS or Euro in summer.

But the GFS about ten days out did have a couple of runs, before it disappeared, that sort of predicted the Christmas Eve 2004 Miracle Storm, when enough snow fell at my house to dust my car and palm trees.


And, reading one of the Cline brother's books, back in 1899 or 1900, a freeze hit SE Texas that was so severe that Galveston Bay started to freeze up and lethargic fish could be caught by hand, and when the thaw finally hit, the smell of rotting fish was dreadful.

For that matter, I recall the hard freeze of 1989 in Austin, and I believe it was around Christmas 1984 that a hard freeze, that was strong enough to kill some palm trees, hit Orlando when I was stationed there. And that wasn't even in Texas, a state that gets all four seasons.

[jinftl]

Those events are distinct enough...and rare enough...that they can be referred to by the year they took place....and there are decades between them....there is always going to be a statistical outlier...a once in a decade/century weather event or something like that...but not every run of the GFS 200+ hours out can be viewed as much more than a wild snapshot estimate.

It doesn't legitimize the models that far out by claiming that the model (or the trend) ended up being right to some extent since a cold front did come through...we don't need models in December to tell us there will be cold fronts!

Not looking at any models, i would expect 4-8 fronts to pass through texas during the month of December, some will be stronger than others, there may be some freezing temps, and inevitably the temps will rebound...and this will continue more or less for the next 12 weeks or so...when a overall warm-up will begin.

[jinftl]

forecast trending mighty warm along the Gulf Coast and SE mid-month

[richtrav]

This is more BAD NEWS if you wanted a cold December!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

What a waste! Look at these extreme cold conditions in Canada, but nothing to transport it south.

http://maps.wunderground.com/global/Reg ... ature.html

Below N.O.

Excellent news so far this year! Nobody in South Texas wants a repeat of the 1980s nightmare(s).

[Portastorm]

This is more BAD NEWS if you wanted a cold December!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

What a waste! Look at these extreme cold conditions in Canada, but nothing to transport it south.

http://maps.wunderground.com/global/Reg ... ature.html

Below N.O.

Excellent news so far this year! Nobody in South Texas wants a repeat of the 1980s nightmare(s).

Well, I wouldn't go THAT far ... there are a few kooks like me that wouldn't mind some historic winter weather every now and then.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This is more BAD NEWS if you wanted a cold December!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.gif

What a waste! Look at these extreme cold conditions in Canada, but nothing to transport it south.

http://maps.wunderground.com/global/Reg ... ature.html

Below N.O.

Excellent news so far this year! Nobody in South Texas wants a repeat of the 1980s nightmare(s).

I realize how bad the freezes of 83 and 89 were to the the Ag and Nursery industry in South Texas (lived in the RGV at the time and it permantley changed the physical landscape) . Would not like to see anyone have to endure that again , but the economic impact would not be a severe as the RGV economy has diversified quite a bit since then. However, would you say that record freeze events or something close to them are like what wildfire is to the western states or hurricanes to the swamps, marsh lands, and barrier islands along the Gulf coast. That being sort of a natural correction to other weather events or natures way of starting over with things. The reason I ask is because the only thing next to drought or wildfires (which I don't think we want either one on a large scale) that will clear out overgrowth, bugs, allergens, and mold thanks to last summers record rains is a prolonged freeze event.

[Brent]

You jinxed it with this thread!

Indian summer next week and probably through Christmas. Thanks! It was warm last Christmas too.

This is why I NEVER even look at the GFS beyond 7 days. You will get burned every time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

You jinxed it with this thread!

Indian summer next week and probably through Christmas. Thanks! It was warm last Christmas too.

This is why I NEVER even look at the GFS beyond 7 days. You will get burned every time.

Yeah, it looks to get quite warm for the Gulf coast the rest of this week and into this weekend. I feel really bad for you in Alabama though, because the warmth will have even more of a hold over your area than it will here in Texas. We might catch a break over here next week with a few fronts trying to push in from the north, but over there in Alabama it looks like you may not be quite as lucky. Hopefully we all get a good shot of cold around Christmas!

BTW - - It is odd to hear that you had a warm Christmas last year. In Houston it was cloudy, windy and cold with a high struggling to get out of the 40s and scattered showers. In fact, snow was even in the forecast at one point, but it never materialized.

[Brent]

You jinxed it with this thread!

Indian summer next week and probably through Christmas. Thanks! It was warm last Christmas too.

This is why I NEVER even look at the GFS beyond 7 days. You will get burned every time.

Yeah, it looks to get quite warm for the Gulf coast the rest of this week and into this weekend. I feel really bad for you in Alabama though, because the warmth will have even more of a hold over your area than it will here in Texas. We might catch a break over here next week with a few fronts trying to push in from the north, but over there in Alabama it looks like you may not be quite as lucky. Hopefully we all get a good shot of cold around Christmas!

BTW - - It is odd to hear that you had a warm Christmas last year. In Houston it was cloudy, windy and cold with a high struggling to get out of the 40s and scattered showers. In fact, snow was even in the forecast at one point, but it never materialized.

We were near 70 on Christmas but the next day was very cold, of course.

[richtrav]

I realize how bad the freezes of 83 and 89 were to the the Ag and Nursery industry in South Texas (lived in the RGV at the time and it permantley changed the physical landscape) . Would not like to see anyone have to endure that again , but the economic impact would not be a severe as the RGV economy has diversified quite a bit since then. However, would you say that record freeze events or something close to them are like what wildfire is to the western states or hurricanes to the swamps, marsh lands, and barrier islands along the Gulf coast. That being sort of a natural correction to other weather events or natures way of starting over with things. The reason I ask is because the only thing next to drought or wildfires (which I don't think we want either one on a large scale) that will clear out overgrowth, bugs, allergens, and mold thanks to last summers record rains is a prolonged freeze event.

Oh it would still be plenty bad for the local economy, the amount of citrus in the region has declined due to urbanization (the '80s didn't help either) but the nursery industry is still going strong here. It would also diminish that tropical ambience that is an attraction for some people and could hurt tourism to a slight extent. The worst part would be the very expensive removal of a lot of dead trees, the vegetation adapted to the area is overwhelmingly subtropical to tropical and another freeze along the magnitude of an '89 would damage nearly all of them and even a good deal of the native vegetation as well. Fortunately I don't think most of us will live to see another freeze that severe at the tip of Texas, only 1899 was worse (records by the way go back to the 1840s, maybe the 1820s if you use the accounts of a few naturalists).

As far as the ecosystem, I can't see how they're beneficial in the same way a brushfire on the plains or a hurricane in coastal areas would be. The main effect of these occasional hard freezes is to keep the most tropical plants on the Tamaulipan plains contained down to a line pretty much south of the 24th parallel at best, usually they don't start up until you get to about the Tropic line. The dead foliage may provide some fuel for brushfires but drought is a much better catalyst for such events (funny how I don't see people cheering for a good long drought). The vegetation south of the river 100 or even 200 miles down is much the same wherever soil conditions and precipitation are comparable. A few more tropical plants appear where water is available (i.e. the rare Ficus) but the ecosystem is still basically Tamaulipan thorn scrub, the same basic plants are present they just don't die back as much in megafreezes. I would suspect the coast would be where changes would be most noticeable if hard freezes were absent: the mangroves would be larger and a few tropical beach-inhabiting plants may increase in numbers. Precipitation however plays a much more significant role in determining local vegetation. It would probably still be too dry for coconuts on the coast, for instance, if the major Arctic outbreaks were to cease. So in a nutshell, I think the main beneficiaries of these unfortunate events are the perverts who for some reason like brutal highly destructive cold weather (now you can have all the 12" snowfalls you want every few years if it doesn't get overly cold - 2004 and 1985 caused little significant damage compared to past events)

This brings up an interesting topic of what the general warming pattern may have on the local flora and landscapes of South Texas. Looking back at the records it is unprecedented for Brownsville to have gone nearly 2 decades without temperatures below 28F. I doubt this is just due to an incredibly lucky winning streak - I'd like to hear a meteorologist's thoughts. If conditions up north are indeed warming, shouldn't the odds of an extreme outbreak in Brownsville diminish? Not that they'll go away entirely, but it may take a series of events to play out perfectly that were already rare enough in cooler decades past. There is, by the way, a big difference on many plants between a freeze that bottoms out in the mid-20s (a la 1930 or 1949) versus a 1983 or 1989 type event.

[boca]

Here in S FL I run my air 365 days a year. Arizona has a better shot at rain than we do here in the sunshine state.Warm=dry.Cold=wet as far as Florida goes.

[Portastorm]

There is some chatter this morning from several Texas NWS forecast offices about wintry weather next week.

From Amarillo: PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS IS A TRUE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND IT DOES NOT
GET MODIFIED MUCH...THEN OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH BY
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...STAY TUNED!

From Fort Worth: DESPITE SOME DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CA FRONT AMONG
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS (AND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS)...
BELIEVE ARCTIC AIR WILL EASILY SLIDE BENEATH SW FLOW AND SURGE
THROUGH CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTENSITY OF COLD AIR STILL UP FOR
DEBATE. POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP AS EJECTING UPPER LOW
APPROACHES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL FAR TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIP IN WEATHER GRIDS.

[Ed Mahmoud]

There is some chatter this morning from several Texas NWS forecast offices about wintry weather next week.

From Amarillo: PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS IS A TRUE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND IT DOES NOT
GET MODIFIED MUCH...THEN OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH BY
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...STAY TUNED!

From Fort Worth: DESPITE SOME DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CA FRONT AMONG
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS (AND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS)...
BELIEVE ARCTIC AIR WILL EASILY SLIDE BENEATH SW FLOW AND SURGE
THROUGH CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTENSITY OF COLD AIR STILL UP FOR
DEBATE. POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP AS EJECTING UPPER LOW
APPROACHES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL FAR TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIP IN WEATHER GRIDS.

I can't get excited if wintry precip doesn't get South of I-20. Amarillo, Lubbock and Wichita Falls get snow every winter, there is nothing remarkable about that.

I want snow, or at least freezing rain, in the Houston area or Austin/San Marcos/San Antonio corridor on I-35.

[gboudx]

There is some chatter this morning from several Texas NWS forecast offices about wintry weather next week.

From Amarillo: PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS IS A TRUE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND IT DOES NOT
GET MODIFIED MUCH...THEN OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH BY
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...STAY TUNED!

From Fort Worth: DESPITE SOME DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CA FRONT AMONG
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS (AND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS)...
BELIEVE ARCTIC AIR WILL EASILY SLIDE BENEATH SW FLOW AND SURGE
THROUGH CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTENSITY OF COLD AIR STILL UP FOR
DEBATE. POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP AS EJECTING UPPER LOW
APPROACHES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL FAR TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIP IN WEATHER GRIDS.

DFW mentioned the possibility in last evening's discussion as well, but only for the NW counties. Today's discussions seems to bring the Metroplex in play. Time will tell and the Bears Watch has been issued.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

There is some chatter this morning from several Texas NWS forecast offices about wintry weather next week.

From Amarillo: PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS IS A TRUE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND IT DOES NOT
GET MODIFIED MUCH...THEN OUR FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE TOO HIGH BY
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IF WE SEE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...STAY TUNED!

From Fort Worth: DESPITE SOME DISPARITY IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF CA FRONT AMONG
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS (AND BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL PERTURBATIONS)...
BELIEVE ARCTIC AIR WILL EASILY SLIDE BENEATH SW FLOW AND SURGE
THROUGH CWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. INTENSITY OF COLD AIR STILL UP FOR
DEBATE. POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIP AS EJECTING UPPER LOW
APPROACHES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. STILL FAR TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO
INCLUDE ANY WINTRY PRECIP IN WEATHER GRIDS.

Lucy getting out the football for DFW and Amarillo......

[lrak]

if the models can change to warm weather over night, then they could change right back to cold over night There could be a piece of straw waiting to fall and break the Camels back. Right?

[jinftl]

At least in the realtive short term....the camel might have to worry more about getting a sun burn on its back!

if the models can change to warm weather over night, then they could change right back to cold over night There could be a piece of straw waiting to fall and break the Camels back. Right?

[jasons2k]

Rich,

Excellent post!! Bravo!!

The same could be said for Florida. The vegetation in the Tampa metro area has taken-on a decidedly more tropical look than it was in the 80's. There are plenty of Royal Palms, Manila Palms, Christmas Palms, even Coconut Palms are relatively common now. I was shocked during my vist a few weeks ago.

Back in the 80's it was almost exclusively your typical 8B-9A vegetation (Queen Palms, Citrus, etc.), which of course is still all there, but with a lot more true tropical thrown-in since there has been a lack of hard freezes.

I've also noticed a lot more 10 & 11-zoned plants being sold here in Houston and actually surviving the winters...

[jinftl]

Great discussion about plant zones...found this map which shows changes in plant hardiness zones from 1990-2006...very interesting

http://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm