Cold Turkey Day for Texas?

[southerngale]

wall cloud... you're talking about the airmass for Thanksgiving, correct? I know that's what the thread is about, but then there's been some talk in this thread about something even colder next week, so just checking.

[wall_cloud]

I'm talking about Wed-Sat

[TexasStooge]

Some people in the Texas Panhandle area must be dreaming of a White Thanksgiving, because from Thanksgiving Day to Friday Night, they'll see a slight chance of snow as shown in the Travel Hotspots:

AMARILLO
Thanksgiving Day: 38°F | 22°F
Friday: 35°F | 23°F

DALHART
Wednesday: 37°F | 19°F
Thanksgiving Day: 38°F | 21°F
Friday: 35°F | 22°F

LUBBOCK
Thanksgiving Day: 38°F | 30°F
Friday: 40°F | 24°F
Saturday: 37°F | 20°F
Sunday: 41°F

CHILDRESS
Thanksgiving Day: 43°F | 32°F
Friday: 42°F | 31°F
Saturday: 43°F | 32°F
Sunday: 45°F
_______________________________________________________________________________

I highly doubt we'll see any winter weather this Thanksgiving in the DFW area...in fact, after seeing unusually warm weather yesterday going on Tuesday, I highly doubt we'll even have a winter. Even if we do, it'll just be snow flurries, but that's it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Some people in the Texas Panhandle area must be dreaming of a White Thanksgiving, because from Thanksgiving Day to Friday Night, they'll see a slight chance of snow as shown in the Travel Hotspots:

AMARILLO
Thanksgiving Day: 38°F | 22°F
Friday: 35°F | 23°F

DALHART
Wednesday: 37°F | 19°F
Thanksgiving Day: 38°F | 21°F
Friday: 35°F | 22°F

LUBBOCK
Thanksgiving Day: 38°F | 30°F
Friday: 40°F | 24°F
Saturday: 37°F | 20°F
Sunday: 41°F

CHILDRESS
Thanksgiving Day: 43°F | 32°F
Friday: 42°F | 31°F
Saturday: 43°F | 32°F
Sunday: 45°F
_______________________________________________________________________________

I highly doubt we'll see any winter weather this Thanksgiving in the DFW area...in fact, after seeing unusually warm weather yesterday going on Tuesday, I highly doubt we'll even have a winter. Even if we do, it'll just be snow flurries, but that's it.

Actually Im gonna have to disagree with you here. The forecast right now for wed night is lingering showers with a low in the mid 30's...just a little cooler and well see very light snow, even though it wouldnt accumulate. BUT, Friday night, lows fall into the low-mid 30's with a 40 chance of rain.....even DFW's AFD they imply that theyre conservative with the weekends forecast

[Portastorm]

JB in his blog this morning is still raising the prospect of icy conditions stretching down into the Hill Country this weekend. He said "ugly holiday weekend weather watch in effect" for Texas.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB in his blog this morning is still raising the prospect of icy conditions stretching down into the Hill Country this weekend. He said "ugly holiday weekend weather watch in effect" for Texas.

I was in the Mid-Cities (HEB) during the 1993 Sleet Bowl w/ the Miami Dolphins and Leon Lett.

That was a magical time.


Looks like any potential precip is too late for the football game.

However, 6Z GFS MOS shows drizzle/light rain, cloudy and low to mid 40s for The University of Texas game Friday at the town time forgot up Highway 6 past Navasota.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Big Dog video didn't address Texas at all.

[PTrackerLA]

The latest (12z) GFS seems to indicate less cold air with the front coming through Wednesday night but then lots of precipiation over the weekend due to a surface low moving up the Texas coast and into southern LA. Looks like a cool and rainy holiday weekend which I'll take over 80 degrees and humidity.

[double D]

Maybe JB thinks Texas won't be so "nasty" after all this weekend?

I honestly do not know what to expect this weekend as the GFS keeps changing solutions. Just yesterday it had the low cutoff to the west, now it has the low more progessive. So who knows what to expect, I don't.

I think this is a case where we will have to wait for the actual event to occur, to see what lies ahead for Texas.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Maybe JB thinks Texas won't be so "nasty" after all this weekend?

I honestly do not know what to expect this weekend as the GFS keeps changing solutions. Just yesterday it had the low cutoff to the west, now it has the low more progessive. So who knows what to expect, I don't.

I think this is a case where we will have to wait for the actual event to occur, to see what lies ahead for Texas.

JB said that on his blog, not the video.

[southerngale]

The latest (12z) GFS seems to indicate less cold air with the front coming through Wednesday night but then lots of precipiation over the weekend due to a surface low moving up the Texas coast and into southern LA. Looks like a cool and rainy holiday weekend which I'll take over 80 degrees and humidity.

Exactly. I'm just anxiously awaiting any kind of cool down at this point. My A/C went out Friday night. I was having a birthday party here... great timing. It wasn't too bad though because it was cool outside and we just opened windows and ran fans. Each day it has gotten warmer though and now it's freaking hot in here. I'm sitting at home in front of a big fan waiting for the A/C repairman to come look at it. I'm sweating. I skipped coffee this morning. It's November 19th. It's just not right. lol

[double D]

Maybe JB thinks Texas won't be so "nasty" after all this weekend?

I honestly do not know what to expect this weekend as the GFS keeps changing solutions. Just yesterday it had the low cutoff to the west, now it has the low more progessive. So who knows what to expect, I don't.

I think this is a case where we will have to wait for the actual event to occur, to see what lies ahead for Texas.

JB said that on his blog, not the video.

Oh, okay. Thanks cctxhurricanewatcher.

[gboudx]

It's November 19th. It's just not right. lol

I hear ya southerngale. I used this past weekend to get a jump on putting up our Christmas lights. I sweat my butt off out there. I tell ya, it just taint right.

[Portastorm]

Well for those of you hoping for the frozen stuff, the model trend is not in your favor. Today's 12z GFS looks even warmer than the 0z run and yesterday's 12z GFS for Thanksgiving and beyond. Now when I write "warmer" ... let's keep it in context ... we're still talking high temps in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. But based on how the GFS is trending, looks just like a cold, damp holiday weekend. Hey ... it'll still feel seasonal and that's fine by me!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well for those of you hoping for the frozen stuff, the model trend is not in your favor. Today's 12z GFS looks even warmer than the 0z run and yesterday's 12z GFS for Thanksgiving and beyond. Now when I write "warmer" ... let's keep it in context ... we're still talking high temps in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s. But based on how the GFS is trending, looks just like a cold, damp holiday weekend. Hey ... it'll still feel seasonal and that's fine by me!

Actually, the 12z GFS is really only warmer for the highs on Thursday and Friday (due to the fact that it is now showing some clearer skies). Saturday and Sunday, however, look just as cold as they ever have with highs in Houston only reaching the low 40s Saturday and the mid/upper 40s Sunday (according to the 12z run). By Sunday night, the 12z GFS even goes on to show a possible freeze threat for SE Texas.

This is definitely an interesting situation setting up as our highs and lows will greatly depend on the amount cloud cover and rain and rain each area sees. This could easily end up being one of those times where one city is cloudy and 48˚ during the afternoon, while another city only 2 hours away is partly sunny and 56˚.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Will the Oklahoma vs Oklahoma State game be played in snow?

Technically not in Texas, but really close, and football fans will be watching.

[southerngale]

Interesting snippet from the overnight Houston AFD:

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT SLEET OR SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN FOR
NOW. AT THE LEAST...THE LOW WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION ACROSS EAST TX WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. 32
&&

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=HGX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[TexasStooge]

The forecast right now for wed night is lingering showers with a low in the mid 30's...just a little cooler and well see very light snow, even though it wouldnt accumulate. BUT, Friday night, lows fall into the low-mid 30's with a 40 chance of rain.....even DFW's AFD they imply that theyre conservative with the weekends forecast

Well, you could be right, we might see a wintry Thanksgiving weekend after all. Low temperatures are still forecasted to be in the mid to upper 30s though. We'll just wait and see what the next 24 to 48 hours has in store for us in North Texas.

But here are the DEFINITE trouble spots to keep an eye on:

AMARILLO
Thanksgiving Day: 36°F | 24°F
Friday: 35°F | 25°F
Saturday: 35°F | 24°F

DALHART
Thanksgiving Day: 36°F | 23°F
Friday: 34°F | 23°F
Saturday: 36°F | 21°F

LUBBOCK
Thanksgiving Day: 36°F | 28°F
Friday: 37°F | 25°F
Saturday: 35°F | 27°F
Sunday: 41°F

CHILDRESS
Saturday: 39°F | 30°F
Sunday: 45°F

WICHITA FALLS
Saturday: 46°F | 33°F

[cheezyWXguy]

The forecast right now for wed night is lingering showers with a low in the mid 30's...just a little cooler and well see very light snow, even though it wouldnt accumulate. BUT, Friday night, lows fall into the low-mid 30's with a 40 chance of rain.....even DFW's AFD they imply that theyre conservative with the weekends forecast

Well, you could be right, we might see a wintry Thanksgiving weekend after all. Low temperatures are still forecasted to be in the mid to upper 30s though. We'll just wait and see what the next 24 to 48 hours has in store for us in North Texas.

But here are the DEFINITE trouble spots to keep an eye on:

AMARILLO
Thanksgiving Day: 36°F | 24°F
Friday: 35°F | 25°F
Saturday: 35°F | 24°F

DALHART
Thanksgiving Day: 36°F | 23°F
Friday: 34°F | 23°F
Saturday: 36°F | 21°F

LUBBOCK
Thanksgiving Day: 36°F | 28°F
Friday: 37°F | 25°F
Saturday: 35°F | 27°F
Sunday: 41°F

CHILDRESS
Saturday: 39°F | 30°F
Sunday: 45°F

WICHITA FALLS
Saturday: 46°F | 33°F

I think that tomorrow or so, they will change our forecast to look like wichita falls, since its not too far away from the conditions they expect right now. But before its said and done, i expect them to go a few degress cooler than what they have right now for the weekend. I still think theyre being pretty conservative

[Johnny]

Well folks,

Their is nothing bone chilling about this air mass coming down at all. I mean, look at the temps in Canada and in the northern states.

Billings, Montana is sitting at 26 degrees and Bozeman, Montana is registering 22.3 degrees. Once that air gets here, it will be cool/chilly. I hardly doubt any parts in Southeast, Texas will even get close to freezing with this one. It will feel alot colder though with the moisture in the air. It just looks like some cool damp weather but that sure the heck beats warm temps. for Turkey Day. I'll take it!!!