(New!!) Cold for the Deep South (Models, Maps, Discussion)

[cheezyWXguy]

Does anybody have any thoughts on the march weather pattern? Will there be one last shot at winter for Texas?

[Tyler]

That map displays my current thoughts for Texas this weekend. Please note I am not calling for a major ice storm, I am just pointing out if moisture does fall (and it likely will), then that is what those areas can expect, IMO. Again, if the air is colder than expected, I will lower that freezing rain/rain line farther south. It is unclear if this is just a minor event, or if something is in the making, way to early to tell. Just stay tuned!

[PTPatrick]

so if this arctic cold is so strong...why is it not going to make it down to souther LA, MS, AL. The way everybody was talking was that this will be colder than this past weekend...but my forecast doesnt even have a low that flirts with 40...much less freezing. Should we expect the cold to remain north toward arkansas and tennessee?

[plainsman]

this front willbe more of a blue norther ( arctic air that shoots from the northern plains straight down into Texas and Oklahoma and stalls... some arctic air may drift into northern al ga and ms and tenn but the bulk of it will will stall out in tx and ok...

[Tyler]

so if this arctic cold is so strong...why is it not going to make it down to souther LA, MS, AL. The way everybody was talking was that this will be colder than this past weekend...but my forecast doesnt even have a low that flirts with 40...much less freezing. Should we expect the cold to remain north toward arkansas and tennessee?

It is very strong, however, the upper air pattern will keep the brunt north of here, while a weak push of cold air will move into the south, shallow in nature, thus the potential for ice.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ok. JB is on board for nasty and icy weather for Texas this coming weekend. He also said it COULD be colder in McAllen than the Houston area this weekend which means myself in Corpus might be in between.

I tell you what Tyler and Extremeweather Guy. I have some friends and family down in the McAllen area. I'll have them Fedex some ice fromthere to you.

[cheezyWXguy]

I just checked out wunderground.com and they have freezing rain and sleet forecasted for my area on sat nite and sunday....also Troy Duncan(i dont remember how to spell his name) mentioned the possibilty of even colder temps than forcasted and possible icing

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ya..umm...anyway JB did screw a few of the winter weather events up...from what see...he does overhype a lot of things...I remember the late december POSSIBLE snowstorm...he said the entire state would be incased in ice...I got nothing but rain up here But if you think about it...he did get major storms rite

In his defense he did call that one way out in advance (two to three weeks). But this event is much closer to happening ( less than a week out).

I agree he does toot his own horn to much and goes to the the extremes. But he nailed the great South Texas Christmas Snowstorm of 2004 when alot of other people at that time would have had him committed.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ya..umm...anyway JB did screw a few of the winter weather events up...from what see...he does overhype a lot of things...I remember the late december POSSIBLE snowstorm...he said the entire state would be incased in ice...I got nothing but rain up here But if you think about it...he did get major storms rite

In his defense he did call that one way out in advance (two to three weeks). But this event is much closer to happening ( less than a week out).

I agree he does toot his own horn to much and goes to the the extremes. But he nailed the great South Texas Christmas Snowstorm of 2004 when alot of other people at that time would have had him committed.

Yes thats rite...thats why i put that he got the major storms rite...I think JB is way better with the hurricanes than the winter weather events(as I am)although gets a few winter events rite

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ya..umm...anyway JB did screw a few of the winter weather events up...from what see...he does overhype a lot of things...I remember the late december POSSIBLE snowstorm...he said the entire state would be incased in ice...I got nothing but rain up here But if you think about it...he did get major storms rite

In his defense he did call that one way out in advance (two to three weeks). But this event is much closer to happening ( less than a week out).

I agree he does toot his own horn to much and goes to the the extremes. But he nailed the great South Texas Christmas Snowstorm of 2004 when alot of other people at that time would have had him committed.

Yes thats rite...thats why i put that he got the major storms rite...I think JB is way better with the hurricanes than the winter weather events(as I am)although gets a few winter events rite

Agree. JB does darn well with Canes. Sure he might miss the exact target intially (please tell me who doesn't). But he did a fantastic job this last season predicting storm formation when their wasn't even a swirl of clouds in some areas. I found myself watching him on TV a few times scratching my head about where he saw something forming or the potential for formation and sure enough something developed.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Checking out GFS surface temps. It has us at or below 45F for highs on both Saturday AND Sunday in North Houston. That is pretty chilly by my standards.

[cheezyWXguy]

Checking out GFS surface temps. It has us at or below 45F for highs on both Saturday AND Sunday in North Houston. That is pretty chilly by my standards.

man, Extreme... if you have 45 that probably pust the suburbs of dallas where i live, rite around freezing

[deltadog03]

early indications from me is that the DFW area and along and north of there could be looking at a SIGNIFICANT FZRA event this weekend. Too early to see what may or maynot happen. But, if the 12z gfs is right there could be 1/2"-3/4" of ice

[Extremeweatherguy]

Checking out GFS surface temps. It has us at or below 45F for highs on both Saturday AND Sunday in North Houston. That is pretty chilly by my standards.

man, Extreme... if you have 45 that probably pust the suburbs of dallas where i live, rite around freezing

yes, the 18Z GFS surface temp. forecast has your area in the middle 30s on Saturday and the lower 30s on Sunday.

[cheezyWXguy]

Checking out GFS surface temps. It has us at or below 45F for highs on both Saturday AND Sunday in North Houston. That is pretty chilly by my standards.

man, Extreme... if you have 45 that probably pust the suburbs of dallas where i live, rite around freezing

yes, the 18Z GFS surface temp. forecast has your area in the middle 30s on Saturday and the lower 30s on Sunday.

WHOA!!! AWESOME!!! I cant wait to see what happens next weekend...but what makes me a little skeptical is tha last friday...I checked the weather and the had me for a 90% chance of ice pellots! nothing happened

[Extremeweatherguy]

Checking out GFS surface temps. It has us at or below 45F for highs on both Saturday AND Sunday in North Houston. That is pretty chilly by my standards.

man, Extreme... if you have 45 that probably pust the suburbs of dallas where i live, rite around freezing

yes, the 18Z GFS surface temp. forecast has your area in the middle 30s on Saturday and the lower 30s on Sunday.

WHOA!!! AWESOME!!! I cant wait to see what happens next weekend...but what makes me a little skeptical is tha last friday...I checked the weather and the had me for a 90% chance of ice pellots! nothing happened

this situation will be very different though...you guys will probably have a much better chance of frozen precip. this time around. Now those 18Z temp. forecasts, I remind you, come from the GFS at 5-6 days out (so don't get too excited...yet) and will probably change (may be even colder?)...but as for now I think they will end up being pretty accurate for what you will see. The more I look at this, the more I see a nice winter storm for your area. I just hope some of that frozen weather can make it to Houston! Doubt it though. As for the Dallas area on the other hand..stay tuned..

[wxman22]

Heres my current thinking:Well things are looking pretty intresting for NORTH Texas as they may see a ice event. Right now it doesnt look like the air will be cold enough around here for any frozen precip. But I must note this is 5+ days out and it's to early to tell who's gonna end up with just plain old rain and whos gonna end up with a Ice Storm. If I were to draw the dividing line beetween the Ice & rain along & north of I-20 would be were the precip falls as frozen precip & south of I-20 would be just plain old rain. NOTE: It's still to early to really no whats going to happen so before it's all said & done we COULD end up maybe with a little frozen precip but right now I dont see that happening..... Stay tuned!!!!

[gboudx]

early indications from me is that the DFW area and along and north of there could be looking at a SIGNIFICANT FZRA event this weekend. Too early to see what may or maynot happen. But, if the 12z gfs is right there could be 1/2"-3/4" of ice

I hope that doesn't happen. There is nothing fun about weather like that.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ya, gboudx...that sounds really severe...I hope we get some good snow in there(i doubt it tho)to dull things down a little bit

[gboudx]

Evaporative cooling has made some freezing rain events turn into sleet/snow events in our area. I guess it will depend on the the depth of the sub-freezing air.