North Texas Winter Weather Outlook/Updates 2005-06

[Raider Power]

early January, with some emphasis on the 1st through the 3rd? I will be sitting in the Cotton Bowl at 10 AM on January 2nd and would curious as to whether you think we will be in a deep freeze or if things will be fairly nice.

Hopefully not a day like the UH - ND game of the Joe Montana era.

[gboudx]

Jan 1 is way out there at this point and none of the models extend out that far. Check back next week and especially the week after Christmas.

However, my experience of living in the Dallas area for almost 11 years is that it's usually very cold. And twice there was some form of wintry precip.

[txprog]

Jan 1 is way out there at this point and none of the models extend out that far. Check back next week and especially the week after Christmas.

However, my experience of living in the Dallas area for almost 11 years is that it's usually very cold. And twice there was some form of wintry precip.

Unfortunately not the case. Jan 1 high temps last 11 years:

2005 - 74
2004 - 71
2003 - 68
2002 - 43
2001 - 30
2000 - 76
1999 - 63
1998 - 58
1997 - 72
1996 - 53
1995 - 46

Not sure what that means as winter temps are so variable here, although all but one or two of these years has been above average for the DJF period. We are clearly in a warmer than normal winter cycle. I hope this ends soon....

[gboudx]

Yeah, he said he's going to the Cotton Bowl for the 10am game. It's usually cold that time of morning. Even in the year's the high was in the 60's, it probably was cold/cool at kickoff.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP WINTER-TIME UPPER LOW POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
WESTERLIES IS UNDERCUTTING THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH A WEAKENING LOW
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN LIQUID PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES BELOW 850 MB FRIDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...AND AREAWIDE WITH A WARMER NOSE FORMING DURING THE
SATURDAY.

THE WESTERN RIDGE EXTENDS FAR INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY BY THIS
WEEKEND...THUS FORMING A MCFARLAND PATTERN. THIS SHOULD TRANSPORT
ANOTHER SLUG OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A REINFORCING SHORT NEXT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW UNDERCUTS THE WEST RIDGE AND MOVES
ACROSS TEXAS. BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH IS
CLOSER TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THUS
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS AND
UP TO 1/3 INCH OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
A WET SNOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ONE QUARTER TUESDAY AND BASICALLY LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE REST OF THE CWA. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE MID LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT.

RIGHT NOW...WE DO NOT FORESEE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR MAJOR TRAVEL
PROBLEMS DOWN SOUTH NEXT TUESDAY.

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-161200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
335 PM CST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN. AT THIS TIME...WINTER
PRECIPITATION APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO INSUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY WHILE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ORGANIZES OVER BAJA. THE COMBINATION
OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESSED IN THE COMING DAYS AND WILL BE OUTLINED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

[TexasStooge]

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-171200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
555 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MONDAY WHILE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ORGANIZES OVER BAJA. THE COMBINATION
OF COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND MOISTURE AND LIFT SUPPLIED BY THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO ASSESSED IN THE COMING DAYS AND WILL BE OUTLINED IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BY LATE MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS...AROUND
5000 FEET...EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS AT
11Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT... MAINLY AFTER 05Z...BUT AM KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005
MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER FOR NEXT WEEK...JUST LIKE THEY
DID FOR THIS WEEKEND. ALL MENTION OF SNOW OR WINTER PRECIP IS OUT
FOR SATURDAY AND THE LIKELY AREAS IN SOUTHEAST ARE DOWN TO CHANCE.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT TO HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIP SOUTHERN HALF RATHER
THAN ALL SNOW. IF MODEL TREND OF TURNING WARMER AND DRIER AS
EACH EVENT APPROACHES CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TUESDAY
WILL BE A NO-RAIN EVENT INSTEAD OF A NO-SNOW EVENT (CONSIDER THAT
A DROUGHT JOKE)...TIME WILL TELL. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY RIDGING MOVES
INTO TEXAS AND A WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN THURSDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BACK ON FRIDAY AS NEW SYSTEM EXITS ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1125 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN TEXAS. SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE EAST...RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. CIGS
WILL LOWER THRU THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR OVC010 FROM 10 TO 14Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN PREVAILING GROUPS STARTING AROUND 01Z IN ACT
AND 03Z IN DFW...AND ENDED AROUND 14Z. EXPECT VSBYS TO STAY MVFR AS
WELL. /13

&&

.UPDATE...
1115 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE.   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO SLOWLY INCREASE TODAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.  BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT MOST AREAS MAY
SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVELS BECOME
SATURATED AND WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT PERSISTS.  RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MORE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IN PLACE.

WILL ADD SOME SPRINKLES TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER TO OVERCAST THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN SETTING UP.  WILL NOT MAKE ANY
MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECASTED AFTERNOON HIGHS. /79

&&

.AVIATION...
540 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND WE WILL SEE A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE CEILINGS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN BY LATE MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS...AROUND
5000 FEET...EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH OVER EAST TEXAS AT
11Z...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...RESULTING IN THE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BEFORE SUNRISE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT... MAINLY AFTER 05Z...BUT AM KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS
TIME.

&&


.DISCUSSION...
327 AM CST FRI DEC 16 2005
MODELS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WARMER FOR NEXT WEEK...JUST LIKE THEY
DID FOR THIS WEEKEND. ALL MENTION OF SNOW OR WINTER PRECIP IS OUT
FOR SATURDAY AND THE LIKELY AREAS IN SOUTHEAST ARE DOWN TO CHANCE.

ON TUESDAY EXPECT TO HAVE SOME MIXED PRECIP SOUTHERN HALF RATHER
THAN ALL SNOW. IF MODEL TREND OF TURNING WARMER AND DRIER AS
EACH EVENT APPROACHES CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TUESDAY
WILL BE A NO-RAIN EVENT INSTEAD OF A NO-SNOW EVENT (CONSIDER THAT
A DROUGHT JOKE)...TIME WILL TELL. BY NEXT WEDNESDAY RIDGING MOVES
INTO TEXAS AND A WARM UP SHOULD BEGIN THURSDAY...WITH SOUTH WINDS
BACK ON FRIDAY AS NEW SYSTEM EXITS ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CST FRI DEC 16 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING THIS AFTERNOON HAS EVAPORATED
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...BUT THE INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
HELP SOME MEASURABLE RAIN REACH THE DRY NORTH TEXAS SOIL TONIGHT.
UNFORTUNATELY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN
MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS
TRANSLATES EAST OF REGION. LOOKS LIKE ALL WINTER PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
A FEW FLAKES MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

A REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST COAST. THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL ALLOW A DEEPER TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
TEXAS TUESDAY AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. 12Z
MODEL RUNS HAVE ALL TRENDED TO A MUCH WARMER PROFILE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A PRECIPITATION REMAINING AS
ALL RAIN. FOR NOW...WE WILL LEAVE IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR
MOST ZONES AND WAIT FOR SOME RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE
PULLING THE MENTION OF SNOW. EVEN IF SOME SNOW DOES MANAGE TO
FALL...IT DOESN`T APPEAR THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE MANY PROBLEMS. WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS.

A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BRING DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005

.AVIATION...
RECENTLY CIGS WENT MVFR OVER THE METROPLEX AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS WELL AT ALL.  EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY RISE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT AM HOLDING ON TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z FOR
METROPLEX SITES.  WILL BRING THEM BACK DOWN TO MVFR (AND EVEN IFR
FOR AFW/FTW) LATER TONIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH MET/FWC GUIDANCE.  -RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TODAY...BUT HAVE OMITTED MENTION
IN THE TAFS DUE TO AN INABILITY TO DETERMINE WHEN IT WILL
OCCUR...AND IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON VISIBILITY/AVIATION.

TR/92

&&

.SHORT TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SIDE EASTWARD TODAY.  THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
CLOUDY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. #58

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE FAVORED BECAUSE THEY LIE IN BETWEEN THE COLDER ETA AND THE
WARMER GFS. ALTHOUGH THE 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ON
MONDAY...WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COLD
ADVECTION WE SEE IN NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS EVEN THE COLDER ETA SHOWS JUST A COLD
RAIN. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CONTEND WITH RAIN OR SOME
TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIP. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
WHETHER IT WILL BE SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE GENERIC RAIN OR SNOW WORDING FOR NOW.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS. A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005

.UPDATE...
1050 AM CST

BRIEF UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDCOVER TODAY...AND REMOVE RAIN FROM ALL
BUT NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AND SE ZONES. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK
GOOD. MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT...UPDATED POP NUMBERS BELOW. 25

&&

.AVIATION...
540 AM CST

RECENTLY CIGS WENT MVFR OVER THE METROPLEX AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS WELL AT ALL.  EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY RISE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT AM HOLDING ON TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z FOR
METROPLEX SITES.  WILL BRING THEM BACK DOWN TO MVFR (AND EVEN IFR
FOR AFW/FTW) LATER TONIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH MET/FWC GUIDANCE.  -RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TODAY...BUT HAVE OMITTED MENTION
IN THE TAFS DUE TO AN INABILITY TO DETERMINE WHEN IT WILL
OCCUR...AND IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON VISIBILITY/AVIATION.

TR/92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
407 AM CST

SHORT TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SIDE EASTWARD TODAY.  THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
CLOUDY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. #58

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE FAVORED BECAUSE THEY LIE IN BETWEEN THE COLDER ETA AND THE
WARMER GFS. ALTHOUGH THE 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ON
MONDAY...WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COLD
ADVECTION WE SEE IN NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS EVEN THE COLDER ETA SHOWS JUST A COLD
RAIN. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CONTEND WITH RAIN OR SOME
TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIP. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
WHETHER IT WILL BE SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE GENERIC RAIN OR SNOW WORDING FOR NOW.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS. A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1050 AM CST SAT DEC 17 2005

.UPDATE...
1050 AM CST

BRIEF UPDATE TO INCREASE CLOUDCOVER TODAY...AND REMOVE RAIN FROM ALL
BUT NORTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AND SE ZONES. TEMPS AND WINDS LOOK
GOOD. MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
UPDATE ALREADY OUT...UPDATED POP NUMBERS BELOW. 25

&&

.AVIATION...
540 AM CST

RECENTLY CIGS WENT MVFR OVER THE METROPLEX AND MOS GUIDANCE IS NOT
HANDLING CURRENT TRENDS WELL AT ALL.  EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY RISE
DURING THE MORNING...BUT AM HOLDING ON TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z FOR
METROPLEX SITES.  WILL BRING THEM BACK DOWN TO MVFR (AND EVEN IFR
FOR AFW/FTW) LATER TONIGHT IN ACCORDANCE WITH MET/FWC GUIDANCE.  -RA
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TODAY...BUT HAVE OMITTED MENTION
IN THE TAFS DUE TO AN INABILITY TO DETERMINE WHEN IT WILL
OCCUR...AND IT WILL NOT HAVE ANY IMPACT ON VISIBILITY/AVIATION.

TR/92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
407 AM CST

SHORT TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SIDE EASTWARD TODAY.  THE
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
CLOUDY COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.  WE MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AND EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES. #58

LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THE UKMET/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
ARE FAVORED BECAUSE THEY LIE IN BETWEEN THE COLDER ETA AND THE
WARMER GFS. ALTHOUGH THE 1040 MB HIGH BUILDS SOUTH ON
MONDAY...WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF COLD
ADVECTION WE SEE IN NORTH TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SWING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT WILL HAVE LIMITED
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WE HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF SNOW FROM
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS EVEN THE COLDER ETA SHOWS JUST A COLD
RAIN. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL CONTEND WITH RAIN OR SOME
TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIP. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE
WHETHER IT WILL BE SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE GENERIC RAIN OR SNOW WORDING FOR NOW.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS. A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AS DRY NW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
856 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2005

.UPDATE...
WE/VE SPENT THE EVENING ANALYZING MODEL THICKNESSES...SOUNDINGS...
FORCING/LIFT...MID-LEVEL SATURATION IN THE -5 TO -20 DEGREES RANGE
FOR THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. THE 12Z/18Z/00Z ETA RUNS SEEM TO
BE A BIT COLDER BELOW 10KFT THAN THE GFS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ETA
HAS BEEN RUNNING THIS COLD BIAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THUS WE PREFER A
70 PERCENT GFS / 30 PERCENT ETA BLEND FOR THE UPDATE.

THE PROSPECTS FOR SNOW OR SLEET ARE WEAK BUT BEST NORTH OF I-20. THE
PROSPECTS FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE BETTER AND MOSTLY LIMITED TO THOSE
HOURS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FREEZING - MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST ONE HALF TO TWO-THIRDS CWA.
HAVE READJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A LITTLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
BUT UPWARD SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
ALSO...WILL EXIT THIS SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
524 PM.
NOT MUCH CHANGE AS WK GULF SFC LO OFF OF DEEP S TX/NRN MEX COAST
HELP KEEP BL-850MB MSTR ARND. XPCT MAINLY VFR CIGS THRU THIS EVE
OR 06Z FLUCTUATING BTWN 050-030. 06Z-14Z...OCNL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
OCCUR AS SFC-BL COOLS. LGT ENE/VRB WNDS 03-05 KTS XPCTD NEXT 24
HRS...BEFORE WK GULF SFC LOW SHUNTS ESEWD...WHICH ALLOWS WK BACKDOOR
CAA FROM THE N AND SOME DRIER...WHICH APPEARS PER MOS GUIDANCES
AND MODELS SOUNDING MAY ALLOW FOR SCTG OF LOW CLOUDS OVER ~ NE 1/2
OF N TX AND HAVE INDICATED SUCH OVER D/FW AREA TAF SITES...BUT
LEFT BKN/VFR LOW CLOUDS OVER KACT FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM CST SAT DEC 17 2005/

BULK OF PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL THIS
WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
CHANCES RETURN WITH FROPA AND WEAK IMPULSE SUNDAY NIGHT. ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN GENERALLY NW HALF...PERHAPS A FEW
FLAKES MIXED IN.

CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT REMAINS WITH EVOLUTION OF CA AIR
MASS AND NEXT SIGNIFICANT UPPER SYSTEM. NOT UNCOMMON FOR DISPARITY
WITH SHALLOW CA AIR MASSES. GFS AND ETA STILL AT ODDS...ETA COLDER
AND WETTER...THOUGH GFS IS STRONGER WITH UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY.
UKMET/CANADIAN TRENDING WARM...TOWARD LATEST GFS SOLUTION...BUT
FEEL ETA MAY BE HANDLING SFC HIGH BETTER. OTHER MODELS SEEM TO BE
TOO INCLINED TO SHUNT COLDEST AIR EAST IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. BY THE LOOKS OF THE SUB-ZERO HIGH TEMPS IN SK/MB...DAMMING
IN THE HIGH PLAINS SHOULD OCCUR. ONCE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
500-700MB FLOW WILL BE IRRELEVANT.

THAT SAID...WILL BRING NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH ENTIRE CWA MONDAY.
WEAK FLOW ABOVE FRONTAL LAYER...UPGLIDE LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO
AREAS WEST OF CWA IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH. PVA AND UPGLIDE AREA
WILL APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE POPS ARE REINTRODUCED.
DIFFICULT NOW TO PREDICT DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF COLD AIR...WHICH
WILL DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
SHOULD YIELD WARM NOSE THAT WILL LIMIT ICE NUCLEATION. LIGHT RAIN
WILL LIKELY BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ALL BUT NORTHERN
ZONES...THOUGH SOME RASN COULD OCCUR SOUTH OF I-20...EVEN IF
EVENTS UNFOLD AS WARMER SOLUTIONS SUGGEST. WILL KEEP -SN AND -RASN
AREAS IN PLACE. MODELS TRENDING POPS HIGHER...BUT WILL KEEP MAINLY
30 POPS FOR NOW. HEALTHY QPF FOR A WINTER EVENT...BUT 18Z RUNS
BACKING OFF A BIT...GFS PERFECT-PROG PRECIP MAINLY SOUTH OF CWA.
WILL KEEP QPF AND WX GRIDS LIGHT FOR NOW. SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT
TO FORECAST MAY BE NEEDED AS EVENT APPROACHES. STAY TUNED.

SYSTEM EXITS WEDNESDAY. AFTER EVENT...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONAL VALUES WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES THE REST OF THE
UPCOMING WORKWEEK.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 AM CST SUN DEC 18 2005

.UPDATE...
1140 AM CST

CURRENT TEMPS APPROACHING MAX T GRID VALUES. DESPITE DRY SFC
LAYER...OVERCAST SKIES AND UPSLOPE NE/E WINDS FILTERING IN CP AIR...
FULLY EXPECT TEMPS TO STAY WITHIN A CATEGORY OF CURRENT ZFP WORDING.
NO MORNING UPDATE TO BE ISSUED.

INITIAL ASSESSMENT OF 12Z MODEL RUNS...TREND TOWARD WARMER
POSTFRONTAL SFC LAYER AND WEAKER UPPER SYSTEM TUESDAY CONTINUES.
MODEL EVOLUTION OF CA AIR MASSES OFTEN UNDERESTIMATES THE EXTENT TO
WHICH THE CA FRONTAL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD CAN BELIE THE UPPER FLOW.
THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES FOR TUESDAY SYSTEM STILL INCLUDES
SOME RASN IN CWA. BUT FOR AFTERNOON ISSUANCE...WILL LIKELY PUSH
RASN/RA BOUNDARY EVEN FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 25

&&

.AVIATION...
1117 AM CST

VFR CIGS LINGER OVER ALL TAF SITES WITH BROAD E-NE FLOW CONTINUING.
OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE NELY THROUGH 18Z MON. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TODAY IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING TOWARD TAF SITES FROM E.
WILL SCATTER OUT LOWER DECK IN TAFS BUT KEEP TEMPO 040-050 CIGS
THROUGH ABOUT 20Z. SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS GRADUALLY REFORM
OVERNIGHT...WILL TAKE DOWN CLOSE TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK MON BUT WILL
KEEP VFR FOR NOW. THANKS ZFW.
..06..

&&

.AVIATION...
530 AM CST

STILL SOME MVFR CIGS AROUND THE TRACON...BUT CANT TELL WHERE THEY
ARE ON SATELLITE DUE TO MID-UPPER LEVEL STRATUS MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  HAVE KEPT TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS THROUGH
14-15Z.  EXPECT LOW END VFR CIGS NEAR 050 TO SCATTER OUT MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT N/NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TR/92

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
429 AM CST

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL SLIDE
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATTER SYSTEM
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PARTIAL THICKNESS
VALUES...AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER EXTENT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...
INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE AIRMASS COOLS A LITTLE
MORE TUESDAY MORNING...THE CHANCE OF WINTERY TYPE PRECIPITATION
MAY SHIFT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...BUT SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE PROBABLE CHANGES
IN THE MODELS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...HAVE NOT
TRIED TO PUT TOO MUCH DETAIL IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPES...EXCEPT
FOR MENTIONING RAIN/SNOW FOR NOW. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...IF THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAY
REMAIN IN THE 30S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
WHICH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST...WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
406 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005

.DISCUSSION...
400 PM CST

CA SFC HIGH SQUEEZING SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. DEEP ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...JUST A BUBBLE HEADING SOUTH.
FRONT DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH WITH CP AIR AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
ALREADY IN PLACE. SOME OVERUNNING MOISTURE...BUT GRADUAL SLOPE OF
ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL LIKELY INITIALLY YIELD ONLY POSTFRONTAL
CLOUD COVER. A SPRINKLE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEST MONDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS AREA
OF UPGLIDE PROGRESSES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
NONETHELESS...LOW-END CHANCE POPS CERTAINLY JUSTIFIED AS COLD AIR
COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE WARM NOSE VIA
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

RETURN FLOW MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IN
GUIDING SFC HIGH INTO ARKANSAS. EVEN IF THIS PANS OUT...RECYCLING
COLD AIR BENEATH CLOUD DECK WILL MEAN LITTLE MODIFICATION. CA HIGH
HAS TRAVERSED SNOW PACK UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND REMAINS
QUITE COLD. EVEN SO...DEPTH OF LAYER ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD BE TOO
DEEP FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP AT THE GROUND EXCEPT FAR NORTH ZONES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS I-20 NORTHWARD HOVERING NEAR FREEZING AT 850MB.
BELOW 850...TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. AT THIS TIME...FEEL SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND PROFILES WILL NEED TO
BE ASSESSED FURTHER AS EVENT APPROACHES.

GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH SLOWER PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP
SOME POPS INTO WED NIGHT PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
ONLY SLOW A SUNSHINE-AIDED WARMING TREND. WINDY FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES. STRONG SW WINDS MAY PUSH THE MERCURY ABOVE 70F ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE CAUTIOUS FOR NOW. DEW POINTS DO NOT LOOK
ABYSMAL...SO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY BE LIMITED TO GUSTY WINDS.

WEAK MP FRONT IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THIS PRECIP WILL BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK SUNNY AND MILD.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005


.AVIATION...
GNLY HELD TO PREV TAF FCST AS VFR CIGS JUST NW OF KDTO/KAFW
(ALREADY OVR KMWL/KLUD AREAS) CONTS TO MOVE SE TOWARD D/FW TAF
SITES AT 10 MPH. INTERPOLATION TOOL SHOWS ARRIVAL KAFW BY
01Z...KFTW/KDFW 02Z...KDAL BY 03Z...SO PREV FCSTR`S TIMING WAS
PRETTY GOOD. NO REAL AFFECT AVIATION-WISE. MAIN CULPRIT IS INCRG
SFC-850 NLY FLOW COOLS LOW LVLS WITH CD FNT NOW NEARING RED RIVER
AND ARRIVING I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z/BEYOND WITH N/NE WNDS 6-9 KTS.
AT KACT...SOME BDRLN VFR/MVFR CIGS JUST OFF THE SSW AND PUT TEMPO
THIS THRU 04Z...BUT GNLY SIMILAR CIG/VSBY SITUATION AS PREVIOUS
DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005/

DISCUSSION...
400 PM CST

CA SFC HIGH SQUEEZING SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. DEEP ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...JUST A BUBBLE HEADING SOUTH.
FRONT DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH WITH CP AIR AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
ALREADY IN PLACE. SOME OVERUNNING MOISTURE...BUT GRADUAL SLOPE OF
ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL LIKELY INITIALLY YIELD ONLY POSTFRONTAL
CLOUD COVER. A SPRINKLE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEST MONDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS AREA
OF UPGLIDE PROGRESSES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
NONETHELESS...LOW-END CHANCE POPS CERTAINLY JUSTIFIED AS COLD AIR
COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE WARM NOSE VIA
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

RETURN FLOW MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IN
GUIDING SFC HIGH INTO ARKANSAS. EVEN IF THIS PANS OUT...RECYCLING
COLD AIR BENEATH CLOUD DECK WILL MEAN LITTLE MODIFICATION. CA HIGH
HAS TRAVERSED SNOW PACK UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND REMAINS
QUITE COLD. EVEN SO...DEPTH OF LAYER ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD BE TOO
DEEP FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP AT THE GROUND EXCEPT FAR NORTH ZONES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS I-20 NORTHWARD HOVERING NEAR FREEZING AT 850MB.
BELOW 850...TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. AT THIS TIME...FEEL SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND PROFILES WILL NEED TO
BE ASSESSED FURTHER AS EVENT APPROACHES.

GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH SLOWER PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP
SOME POPS INTO WED NIGHT PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
ONLY SLOW A SUNSHINE-AIDED WARMING TREND. WINDY FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES. STRONG SW WINDS MAY PUSH THE MERCURY ABOVE 70F ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE CAUTIOUS FOR NOW. DEW POINTS DO NOT LOOK
ABYSMAL...SO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY BE LIMITED TO GUSTY WINDS.

WEAK MP FRONT IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THIS PRECIP WILL BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK SUNNY AND MILD.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
903 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005

.UPDATE...
18Z/00Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS MODEL TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY...SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT (BOTH OMEGA AND Q-VECTOR
DIVERGENCE) ARE NOT AS STRONG AS WE WOULD PREFER FOR A GOOD RAIN.
MOISTURE AT 850MB WILL BE LACKING - GENERALLY DEWPOINTS LESS THAN 1
DEGREE C DURING THE PERIOD.  ALSO...MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW
ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE -5 TO -20 DEGREE LAYER FOR DECENT
HYDROMETEOR ICE PRODUCTION.

TONIGHTS NEW ETA/NGM RUNS (LIKE YESTERDAYS) HARDLY DROP ANY
PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS WE HAVE
CUT BACK ON POPS...QPF AND LIMITED ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME JUST AFTER CHRISTMAS...
BUT THIS ONE IS LOOKING SKIMPY AS WELL. OUR SEVERE NORTH TEXAS
DROUGHT AND ASSOCIATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE INTO JANUARY.  75

&&

.AVIATION...
532 PM.
GNLY HELD TO PREV TAF FCST AS VFR CIGS JUST NW OF KDTO/KAFW
(ALREADY OVR KMWL/KLUD AREAS) CONTS TO MOVE SE TOWARD D/FW TAF
SITES AT 10 MPH. INTERPOLATION TOOL SHOWS ARRIVAL KAFW BY
01Z...KFTW/KDFW 02Z...KDAL BY 03Z...SO PREV FCSTR`S TIMING WAS
PRETTY GOOD. NO REAL AFFECT AVIATION-WISE. MAIN CULPRIT IS INCRG
SFC-850 NLY FLOW COOLS LOW LVLS WITH CD FNT NOW NEARING RED RIVER
AND ARRIVING I-20 CORRIDOR BY 12Z/BEYOND WITH N/NE WNDS 6-9 KTS.
AT KACT...SOME BDRLN VFR/MVFR CIGS JUST OFF THE SSW AND PUT TEMPO
THIS THRU 04Z...BUT GNLY SIMILAR CIG/VSBY SITUATION AS PREVIOUS
DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CST SUN DEC 18 2005/

DISCUSSION...
400 PM CST

CA SFC HIGH SQUEEZING SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. DEEP ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...JUST A BUBBLE HEADING SOUTH.
FRONT DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH WITH CP AIR AND NORTHERLY SFC FLOW
ALREADY IN PLACE. SOME OVERUNNING MOISTURE...BUT GRADUAL SLOPE OF
ISENTROPIC SURFACES WILL LIKELY INITIALLY YIELD ONLY POSTFRONTAL
CLOUD COVER. A SPRINKLE OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE WEST MONDAY.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS AREA
OF UPGLIDE PROGRESSES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS A WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
NONETHELESS...LOW-END CHANCE POPS CERTAINLY JUSTIFIED AS COLD AIR
COULD BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SUFFICIENTLY SATURATE WARM NOSE VIA
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.

RETURN FLOW MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY IF MODELS ARE CORRECT IN
GUIDING SFC HIGH INTO ARKANSAS. EVEN IF THIS PANS OUT...RECYCLING
COLD AIR BENEATH CLOUD DECK WILL MEAN LITTLE MODIFICATION. CA HIGH
HAS TRAVERSED SNOW PACK UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND REMAINS
QUITE COLD. EVEN SO...DEPTH OF LAYER ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD BE TOO
DEEP FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIP AT THE GROUND EXCEPT FAR NORTH ZONES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS I-20 NORTHWARD HOVERING NEAR FREEZING AT 850MB.
BELOW 850...TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WITH NO ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. AT THIS TIME...FEEL SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND PROFILES WILL NEED TO
BE ASSESSED FURTHER AS EVENT APPROACHES.

GFS IS THE OUTLIER WITH SLOWER PASSAGE OF SHORTWAVE...WILL KEEP
SOME POPS INTO WED NIGHT PERIOD DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL
ONLY SLOW A SUNSHINE-AIDED WARMING TREND. WINDY FRIDAY BEFORE NEXT
FRONT ARRIVES. STRONG SW WINDS MAY PUSH THE MERCURY ABOVE 70F ON
FRIDAY...BUT WILL BE CAUTIOUS FOR NOW. DEW POINTS DO NOT LOOK
ABYSMAL...SO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES MAY BE LIMITED TO GUSTY WINDS.

WEAK MP FRONT IN TIME FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BUT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THIS PRECIP WILL BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK SUNNY AND MILD.

[ETXHAMXYL]

Don't you love the "Just a Bubble moving South" More like our bubble was burst on the cold and frozen stuff.

[TexasStooge]

Code: Select all

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
515 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AROUND 050 HAVE MOVED INTO ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THESE CIGS
TO REMAIN IN THE 040-050 RANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. /13

&&

.DISCUSSION...
408 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION JUST
ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP. SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO QPF WILL LIKELY BE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR
POPS WILL BE USED. LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS AREA...SO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND TRAVEL SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.

TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT
FROM NW TO SE. WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
LIGHT FREEZING FOG OVER THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY WED-THU AS SW BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD WARM ADVECTION. NEXT TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK
WITH AND WILL KEEP JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF 20 POPS FOR THE EXTREME
EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKING LIKE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.