Winter Storm Watch coming for NC Mountains

[Brent]

COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED STRONG COLD
ADVECTION...WITH RAPID DRYING LEE. THICKNESS SUPPORTS ALL SNOW.
STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVE AND 850MB NW WINDS SUPPORT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT
THAT MAY REACH AS FAR E AS BLUE RIDGE. WITH SUCH A STRONG SHORTWAVE
...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN LEE BEFORE DRYING.
WILL ISSUE WATCH FOR SNOW/WIND NC MTS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WENT TOWARD
COOLER ETA TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SAT WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING...NE FLOW...AND THICK CLOUDS.

Wind is going to be terrible as well. Wind chills near or below zero possible.

[Brent]

NWS Morristown:

.LONG TERM...(SAT NIGHT THROUGH FRI)...MODELS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT IN HANDLING EXITING SYSTEM SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TREND
CONTINUES TO BE FOR PRECIP TO EXIT MORE QUICKLY. ANOTHER TREND THAT
CONTINUES IS COLDER AIR PUSHING IN FASTER...SO BULK OF ANY PRECIP
SAT NIGHT SHOULD BE SNOW SHOWERS. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE
NORMALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SW VA...CHANCE ELSEWHERE ALL BUT FAR SOUTH WHERE WILL GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SW VA...DRY SOUTH AND FLURRIES IN
BETWEEN. MAY NEED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SAT NIGHT IN NORMALLY
FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS...AND WINDS MAY MEET ADVISORY OR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS WELL. SINCE STILL THIRD PERIOD AT THIS
POINT...WILL DEFER TO THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT AND JUST CONTINUE SPS.

[JenyEliza]

You know, Brent, tonight I'm getting a funny feeling about this storm. I (am probably wrong), think perhaps even Atlanta will feel the effects of this storm in a most unpleasant way. I've lived here long enough (since 1968) to know that Atlanta can (and often is) unexpectedly broad-sided by winter weather.

"Flurries" are still predicted overnight Saturday for Atlanta. Well, we saw what "flurries" and a "dusting" was in NC on Wednesday....and I am thinking (with absolutely ZERO scientific fact to back it up) that this could happen here. I've seen it before.

When the mets here say "nothing for us", in the face of a strong winter east coast storm, we have sometimes ended up with much more than nothing. We have (in the past) been absolutely slammed in such circumstances.

This is all a hunch....nothing more. But...I'm feeling it much more strongly tonight than I have in the last two nights. We shall see what happens....all I can say is, I hope it's snow not ice if we get anything.

Anywho.....go have a great time in Gatlinburg and check in when you can!!

Jeny

[JenyEliza]

This is what is giving me the funny feeling. I've seen this kind of NWS discussion from Peachtree City before--and I've seen it bust big before too.

So....I leave you with this thought....and then head out to "Family Fun Night" at our school.

ENJOY THE SNOW, Brent. We want a full report when you can (pictures too).

Jeny

000
FXUS62 KFFC 212246 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
530 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...WEDGE POISED TO PUSH INTO GA THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...HOWEVER THIS IS TAKING LONGER THAN FIRST EXPECTED. SOME CONFLICT WITH FWC/MAV POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON RAIN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG WEDGE IS AND HOW FAR WEST IT EXTENDS. HAVE GENERALLY GONE FOR HIGHS BELOW BOTH FWC AND MAV. LIKELY POPS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL FOR SATURDAY...WITH CHANCE SOUTHEAST STILL LOOKS OKAY...AND HAVE MADE NO REAL CHANGES TO POPS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION ENDING QUICKLY AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. ETA/GFS SHOW MOST OF THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE STAYING NORTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION...SNOW FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.