NWS San Angelo AFD Slams the GFS!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Funny Statment about the GFS for the weekend from NWS San Angelo. You live with the GFS, you die with it.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
954 AM CST WED JAN 12 2005

.UPDATE...JUST UPDATED GRIDS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO BRING
OUR OFFICE BACK INTO CONCENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS
CONCENSUS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ETA AND DGEX. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS STILL NOT MAKING MUCH SENSE WITH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
VERY BAD! WANTED TO GO AHEAD AND BRING THE FORECAST BACK CLOSER
TO WHAT WE THINK...AND NOT THE GFS.

WILL UPDATE TEXT PRODUCTS FOR THIS SHORTLY.

[JETSTREAM BOB]

I agree I just looked at the 6Z & 12Z runs,they don't show hardly any cold artic air pushing southward at least through the 1/22/05....This could be dangerous knowing the severe cold artic air building in Canada pushing to the lower conus catching people unaware....JSB

[aggiecutter]

The operational GFS doesn't even agree with its Ensembles, which really drills the Arctic air into the Central part of the country this weekend.

Checkout the upper level flow 96hr-144hr.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 11200.html

[millerblizzard1]

Good point Aggie. I checked out the link you mentioned. Why so much of a lack of continuity between the model and ensembles?

[dvdweatherwizard]

Funny Statment about the GFS for the weekend from NWS San Angelo. You live with the GFS, you die with it.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
954 AM CST WED JAN 12 2005

.UPDATE...JUST UPDATED GRIDS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY TO BRING
OUR OFFICE BACK INTO CONCENSUS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS
CONCENSUS IS SUPPORTED BY THE ETA AND DGEX. THE PREVIOUS RUNS OF
THE GFS STILL NOT MAKING MUCH SENSE WITH RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
VERY BAD! WANTED TO GO AHEAD AND BRING THE FORECAST BACK CLOSER
TO WHAT WE THINK...AND NOT THE GFS.

WILL UPDATE TEXT PRODUCTS FOR THIS SHORTLY.

Wow, an interesting statement to say the least. Not only did it make a poke at the GFS, but it also indirectly pokes at the previous forecaster for following the GFS as well as being out of the "concensus". I'd like to be a wall in that office if those two forecasters ever get together, especially given the fact that the Lubbock NWS office this morning said. "IT APPEARS WINDS COULD VEER IN LOW LEVEL WAA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IF THIS HAPPENS...COLD TEMPS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION. HANDLED SITUATION BY RAISING TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY...IN HIGH COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING WFOS."

I'm not saying by any means that they should follow the GFS, but it's still interesting to read stuff like that.