18z ETA/GFS thoughts and comment on the ECMWF

[Anonymous]

I'm expecting everything to shift south this evening...this is a supressed system.

I disagree... it appears to me (correct me if I'm wrong) that this is a very volatile system where a small difference in the two shortwaves can mean a world of difference because it affects whether or not they phase. In other words, even if the Euro shows a terrible solution for us, it may not take that drastic a shift at 500mb to change things dramatically.

[molecules]

Colin,

Relax and wait

[Erica]

Exactly, I agree with you 100%.

it's like I talked about in my post, a great deal of what happens here depends on the northern stream s/w. If the situation like the GFS 18z run has, then it's suppressed. But if we have something more like the 18z ETA, or 12z GFS, this is a major winter storm for many.

[Erica]

Colin,

Relax and wait

Yes, please do!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Erica, When You Mean "Major" ( Or So, IF IT SHIFTS) 1996 Blizzard? or that's WAYYY TO EXTREME?

[Erica]

Erica, When You Mean "Major" ( Or So, IF IT SHIFTS) 1996 Blizzard? or that's WAYYY TO EXTREME?

No, I don't mean that at all. I'm talking about something similar to what the GFS 06-18z runs showed yesterday or today's 12z run.

[Guest]

Colin,

Relax and wait

Yes, please do!

IMO i think from now on we should all just ignore these comments made by these same people who always seem to do this. For one they have no understanding of the weather or model forecasting because if they did they wouldnt go on ranting like this at the turn of each model run for every system that threatens them. So imo its just best to ignore them and keep up with the great discusions we are having. Eventually they may get a clue and knock it off with this same ole crapola they post everytime we have a storm threat. Not trying to be mean or anything but just stating my opinion here! Just sit back guys and try to learn something before saying things like that!

[Erica]

Yeah, well said, King.

[molecules]

Colin,

Relax and wait

Yes, please do!

IMO i think from now on we should all just ignore these comments made by these same people who always seem to do this. For one they have no understanding of the weather or model forecasting because if they did they wouldnt go on ranting like this at the turn of each model run for every system that threatens them. So imo its just best to ignore them and keep up with the great discusions we are having. Eventually they may get a clue and knock it off with this same ole crapola they post everytime we have a storm threat. Not trying to be mean or anything but just stating my opinion here! Just sit back guys and try to learn something before saying things like that!

King of Weather excellent post.....I have to take your advice to ignore these post I just get annoyed by this w/ every storm. EC storms are like a puzzles! You have to look at every piece and see what fits.

[Erica]

The only thing that really concerns me here is the ECMWF consistency in showing a suppressed system. We really won't know where the ETA's at until tonight's 0z (in order to determine whether or not the 18z run was a hiccup), though right now, i would vote no on that one, and the same goes for whether or not the 18z GFS was a hiccup, which if the the 0z GFS is back to the 12z solution is likely.

Eeven still, when it comes to major east oast snowstorms, I would much rather have the ECMWF on my side than against me. But the GGEM has been pretty consistent, and past preformance hasn't been that bad. The 0z run was the extreme, and that was inland, while the 12z run supported the GFS 12z run also.

Plus, lets also remember that the 06z and 18z runs don't have the same new RAOB/Dropsonde data to work with like the 0z and 12z runs do.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes, GGEM, Has been pretty darn good this year.

[SacrydDreamz]

I'm expecting everything to shift south this evening...this is a supressed system.

What are you basing this on?

[SacrydDreamz]

Great discussion Erica. Nice to have you here.. you've done a great job explaining the mods in an easy to understand way. Thank you for your analysis, it's always welcome!

[Anonymous]

So far this winter I've been relying on the GFS and ECMWF for the most part, but it was a very confusing winter since they always changed with each new update, especially in the LR. Didn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Too many model flip/flops this winter with the NAO/PNA/AO has made it hard to rely on any consistency at all. The flow this entire winter was too progressive, IMO. From now on I might look more into the ETA and GGEM for better reference.

Ken

[donsutherland1]

Great discussion, Erica. I very much enjoyed reading it.

[Stephanie]

Colin,

Relax and wait

Yes, please do!

IMO i think from now on we should all just ignore these comments made by these same people who always seem to do this. For one they have no understanding of the weather or model forecasting because if they did they wouldnt go on ranting like this at the turn of each model run for every system that threatens them. So imo its just best to ignore them and keep up with the great discusions we are having. Eventually they may get a clue and knock it off with this same ole crapola they post everytime we have a storm threat. Not trying to be mean or anything but just stating my opinion here! Just sit back guys and try to learn something before saying things like that!

The uncertainty of the weather on the EC makes it much more interesting IMHO. It is disappointing when we are teased by the potential of a SECS or a MECS and then our hopes are dashed, but that's the way it is. I'm sure that it is much more frustrating for the forecasters than it is for the novices.

I agree that it can definately be frustrating and even annoying when "winter is over" is repeated like a broken record. I'd saying it's especially annoying for the mets here who have put alot of thought and time and effort into their forecasts only to have them totally ignored. I think we all must get over the knee-jerk reactions we've been having to every change of the models and look at the trends.