Sterling Cancels Winter Storm warning, issues WSWATCH

[Cheesy_Poofs]

WINTER STORM WATCH

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 PM EST MON JAN 26 2004

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


DCZ001-MDZ004>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ021-025>027-029-030-036>042-
050>056-WVZ054-271000-
ALBEMARLE VA-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA VA-
AUGUSTA VA-CARROLL MD-CULPEPER VA-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA DC-FAIRFAX VA-
FAUQUIER VA-FREDERICK MD-GREENE VA-HARFORD MD-HIGHLAND VA-HOWARD MD-
LOUDOUN VA-MADISON VA-MONTGOMERY MD-NELSON VA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-
ORANGE VA-PAGE VA-PENDLETON WV-PRINCE GEORGES MD-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK VA-RAPPAHANNOCK VA-
ROCKINGHAM VA-SHENANDOAH VA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-SPOTSYLVANIA VA-
STAFFORD VA-WARREN VA-

...WINTER STORM WARNING CANCELED...
...WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS CANCELED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. PERIODS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH A LITTLE SLEET OR LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHT ICING
OF LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH ON EXPOSED SURFACES WILL OCCUR AS
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING.

ANY ICING WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED
SURFACES AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT. IF YOU
VENTURE OUT...ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION AND USE
CAUTION.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A
MULTI-HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD CREATE HAZARDOUS ICING CONDITIONS AS ICE TOTALS
COULD APPROACH ONE-QUARTER INCH ON EXPOSED SURFACES. LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
OVER TO A PERIOD OF ALL SNOW BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.


$$

SMZ/ND/LR/ABW

[JCT777]

Sounds like fun with all that ice. NOT! I hope you are able to get some snow beyond just an inch or two.

[Anonymous]

I have a bad feeling this is going to bust too (just like the WSW they continued this morning even when in the AFD the forecaster said we'd be dry-slotted all day and night)... the latest ETA temps indicate that we may go over to RAIN tomorrow afternoon before the changeover to snow, and with the way it's trending, we'll be lucky to squeeze more than 0.2" QPF out of this entire event.

[stormtrackerFDK1]

I have a bad feeling this is going to bust too (just like the WSW they continued this morning even when in the AFD the forecaster said we'd be dry-slotted all day and night)... the latest ETA temps indicate that we may go over to RAIN tomorrow afternoon before the changeover to snow, and with the way it's trending, we'll be lucky to squeeze more than 0.2" QPF out of this entire event.

I'm not understand where you are seeing this? Temps will be cold at the surface for freezing rain and not plain rain. If anything, there could be sleet throughout the area. LWX finally is getting one right with this one. ETA temps never get us above freezing.

[Anonymous]

I'm not understand where you are seeing this? Temps will be cold at the surface for freezing rain and not plain rain. If anything, there could be sleet throughout the area. LWX finally is getting one right with this one. ETA temps never get us above freezing.

This is what I was talking about:
[/img]

[Anonymous]

IT gets far, far, far worse.........................

Later this week our highs will average in the upper 40s. Even more dismal, there are rain events forecast.

Well I know I live in a mild part of the nation, and I know its nearly February, but.................I can not help but think of all the cold days we enjoyed, only to finally get some good snow, and to face our usual mild weather in just a couple days 'time, with rain into the bargain.

Oh well, the way I see it, if it has to melt, lets get it done quick. A good heavy rain plus highs in the upper 40s and overnight lows above freezing.

This type of trend is precisely why I tended to bellyache so much all thru the month------because this is exactly what happens here in the MA------We get a week, two weeks of nice cold weather, and we ache for just a little snow so we can enjoy it while its cold. During the cold, most snow misses us, even the inch-deep dustings. Then, we got a good 4-inch event last night, which I was utterly thankful for, but the caveat is.......BY Thursday, we are progged to hit the 40s for highs, with 53 degrees and RAIN by Friday.

If you don't believe me about all therain and milder air late this week, please consult this resource for confirmation lol.

Oh well.................If the central MA is anything, it IS consistent LOL!!!

It's a shame........We may well get more snow later.......BUT, and here's the rub, We have to lose the snow we have first, PLUS endure a few days of 40s, even a day or two of 50s.

THIS is why I get SO d@mn obsessed with snow here. It tends to be very, very hard-won here, and we can wait nearly all winter to get it, only to rise right back up into the snow-killing 40s and 50s within 48 to 72 hours and it melts so fast.

Such is the lot of the central MA Snow Weenie LOL!!


-JEB.

[stormtrackerFDK1]

I'm not understand where you are seeing this? Temps will be cold at the surface for freezing rain and not plain rain. If anything, there could be sleet throughout the area. LWX finally is getting one right with this one. ETA temps never get us above freezing.

This is what I was talking about:
[/img]

ETA, even with its excellent CAD represenation is ALREADY too warm in a few places. And take a look at LWX's latest AFD, very good:


TUE...MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING A SLUG OF MOISTURE IN THE MID-LVLS
(90% RH IN THE 700-500 LYR) AND GOOD LIFT AFTER 18Z AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND SFC LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF HAT AND TRACKS NORTH RESULTING A
3-6HR PERIOD OF MDT-HVY PRECIP MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 2PM-6PM. WITH
COLD AIR DAMMING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA AND ALREADY A
WARM NOSE SEEN ON 18Z IAD SOUNDING THIS WILL BE A FZRA EVENT FOR
MOST PLACES EXCEPT FOR FAR SRN MD. NEW 18Z META INDICATES ABT A
QUARTER INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON
HAVE GONE WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ISSUED A
WINTER WX ADVISORY TO COVER THE -FZDZ THRU NOON TOMORROW. ALSO
INTERERSTING TO NOTE IS THAT ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS VALID 21Z FOR DCA
SHOW SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 100 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE WITH
K INDEX OF 30 SHOWALTER OF +1C AND TT OF 53. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS LFC
ON SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY HIGH AROUND 600MB AND IT WILL BE VERY TOUGH
TO ATTAIN. ANY WAY SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIP CAN GET INVOLVED HERE
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER AMTS. BY THE WAY SPC DY2 HAS
OUTLOOKED AREA UNDER GENERAL THUNDER TOMORROW. THE LAST TIME IAD
EXPERIENCED -TSRA FZRA WAS DEC 16 2000. PROB LOOKS TOO LOW RIGHT NOW
TO MENTION ANY THUNDER. FZRA WILL END AS BRIEF PERIOD OF -SN TUE
EVENING.

So, I think you shouldn't worry about being above freezing.