Both the GFS and Euro (and nationwide notable forecasters Bastardi and Cosgrove) are all advertising major cold blast next week for the Southland from Texas eastward to Dixie.
If we can keep the Southern jet active, this could get REAL interesting.
Here are a few NWS forecast discussion snippets from this morning:
NWS Corpus Christi, TX:
BEYOND DAY 7...GFS
INDICATES A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH A POSSIBLE ARCTIC CF BY
MID WEEK ESPECIALLY GIVEN PROGD UPPER LEV PATTERN. IF THIS SOLN
VERIFIES...WE ARE IN FOR COLD TEMPS FOR DAYS 8 AND 9.
NWS Fort Worth, TX:
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE FULL-CONTINENTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG INDICATIONS THAT 1040MB PLUS ARCTIC
HIGH WILL MOVE OUT OF SIBERIA...ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND SINKING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS NEXT WEEK. FIRST ARCTIC INTRUSION IS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING NORTH OF I-20 FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SURGE
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANY POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LATE NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND THIS FORECAST
NWS Lubbock, TX:
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON CARVING OUT A BROAD UPR
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AS STRONG UPR RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NORTH TO GULF
OF ALASKA. IF THIS PANS OUT...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR SURGES OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR PLUNGING SOUTH FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL
INTRODUCE COOLING TEMPERATURES MAINLY ON TUESDAY
NWS Norman, OK:
ATTENTION THEN TURNS NORTH AS NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER NW CANADA
AND ALASKA. MODELS WANT TO BEGIN TO MOVE THIS LARGE COLD AIRMASS
SOUTH BY THE WEEKEND. IT WILL JUST BE A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE IT
GETS HERE. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD MAKE ITS APPEARANCE
INTO OK/N TX BY MONDAY... WITH MRF ABOUT A DAY FASTER THAN LATEST
ECMWF. WILL GO WITH FASTER MRF AT THIS POINT. AIRMASS THAT COLD
USUALLY GETS HERE QUICKER THAN MODELS PREDICT. MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND
PERHAPS A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
NWS Tulsa, OK:
THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO WHAT COULD BE THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
OUTBREAK OF THE SEASON. COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. WITH COLDER AIR HEADED THIS WAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP
TUESDAY AND WE ALREADY HAD SOME RAIN MENTIONED. ADJUSTED FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
Southern Snow Geese unite!!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Portastorm
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Southern Snow Geese unite!!
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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Portastorm
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And by the way, the link below will take you to the forecast discussion this morning from Dodge City, KS, forecasters from NWS. They have an excellent explanation on next week's potential events.
For those of us in the Southern Plains, unless there is a monstrous Southern jet shunting the cold air eastward, we can bet that what Kansas gets in terms of cold air will eventually come our way.
Here it is:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/DDC/AFDDDC
For those of us in the Southern Plains, unless there is a monstrous Southern jet shunting the cold air eastward, we can bet that what Kansas gets in terms of cold air will eventually come our way.
Here it is:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/data/DDC/AFDDDC
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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weatherlover427
FWIW, here's Topeka's take on the situation (I copied and pasted since their AFD is one giant paragraph basically):
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS A NORTHERN STREAM 5H RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE 5H CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF EASTERN KS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. A STRONG 5H TROUGH WILL MOVE ON SHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY. A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MONDAY THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL AMPLIFY AS ANOTHER 5H TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH. I INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE SLIGHT SNOW CHANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. IF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...I THINK THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. I ONLY PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...SINCE THE EXTENDED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER...ALL THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SEEM TO CONVERGE ON A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AS A NORTHERN STREAM 5H RIDGE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE 5H CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TX SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PRECIP WELL SOUTH OF EASTERN KS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD. A STRONG 5H TROUGH WILL MOVE ON SHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE INTERIOR MOUNTAIN WEST BY SUNDAY. A COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MONDAY THE 5H TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL AMPLIFY AS ANOTHER 5H TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGER WAVE LENGTH 5H TROUGH. I INSERTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND HAVE THE SLIGHT SNOW CHANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. IF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO OUR WEST...I THINK THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE I KEPT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. I ONLY PLACED SLIGHT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW...SINCE THE EXTENDED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS MAY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER...ALL THE LONGER RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS DO SEEM TO CONVERGE ON A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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CaptinCrunch
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Here is the D/FW forecast from weather.com
Today: Partly cloudy. High 53F. Winds light and variable.
Tonight: Partly cloudy skies early will give way to cloudy skies late. Low near 40F. Winds light and variable.
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies. High 59F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy skies early will become overcast later during the night. Low 43F. Winds light and variable.
Friday: More clouds than sun. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 40s.
Saturday: Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low 40s.
Monday: Cloudy. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper teens.
Wednesday: Snow showers. Highs in the mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
Thursday: Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the mid 40s.
Friday: Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
Also here is Ch11 CBS weather page by Weather Underground
http://weather.cbs11tv.com/
Today: Partly cloudy. High 53F. Winds light and variable.
Tonight: Partly cloudy skies early will give way to cloudy skies late. Low near 40F. Winds light and variable.
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy skies. High 59F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph.
Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy skies early will become overcast later during the night. Low 43F. Winds light and variable.
Friday: More clouds than sun. Highs in the mid 50s and lows in the upper 40s.
Saturday: Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the low 40s.
Monday: Cloudy. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the upper teens.
Wednesday: Snow showers. Highs in the mid 40s and lows in the upper 20s.
Thursday: Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper 50s and lows in the mid 40s.
Friday: Mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the mid 40s.
Also here is Ch11 CBS weather page by Weather Underground
http://weather.cbs11tv.com/
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Portastorm
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Gosh I sure hope you are right Johnny. We've all been disappointed several times in the last month. But everyone this time seems "on board." Gonna be fun to watch.
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vbhoutex
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A quick look at a few things in a few models lends some hope, but it did the same thing 10 days ago too so?????
I must say the discussions shown so far lend much more hope than they did 10 days ago. Time for another in depth look at several different sources.
I'll give it one HONK.
I must say the discussions shown so far lend much more hope than they did 10 days ago. Time for another in depth look at several different sources.
I'll give it one HONK.
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Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
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vbhoutex, you are right. All of us have been honking since the 1st of January and have not see it materialize yet. BUT the big boys are starting to honk with this one. I have been pretty skeptical this month but don't feel so with the latest news. Here's what Joe Lundberg has to say with the cold coming down in the extended. Wow!!!!!!!
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/...?type=lundbergj
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/...?type=lundbergj
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PTrackerLA
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CaptinCrunch
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
423 AM CST THU JAN 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...
CUT-OFF LOW WILL LINGER OVER BAJA/NW MEXICO A LITTLE LONGER THAN
AVN/GFS SHOWING. HOW DECIDED TO RIDE WITH ETA/ECMWF/CANADIAN THIS
CYCLE...DELAYING EJECTION OF UPPER LOW...ONSET MAIN PRECIPITATION
EVENT...AND WARMER TEMPS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT
NOTHING MAJOR UNTIL UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST... AND QPF (1/4 TO
3/4 INCH) ACROSS THE CWA...MAIN SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY DUE TO JET
DYNAMICS AND PVA PATTERN. THIS SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN WARMER WEDNESDAY AS STRONG CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST. BY LATE THURSDAY A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR OVERTAKES THE CWA WITH QUITE COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 75
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
423 AM CST THU JAN 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...
CUT-OFF LOW WILL LINGER OVER BAJA/NW MEXICO A LITTLE LONGER THAN
AVN/GFS SHOWING. HOW DECIDED TO RIDE WITH ETA/ECMWF/CANADIAN THIS
CYCLE...DELAYING EJECTION OF UPPER LOW...ONSET MAIN PRECIPITATION
EVENT...AND WARMER TEMPS. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SHOWERS EXTREME SOUTH TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...BUT
NOTHING MAJOR UNTIL UPPER TROUGH SWING THROUGH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
WE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY SOUTH AND EAST... AND QPF (1/4 TO
3/4 INCH) ACROSS THE CWA...MAIN SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR SATURDAY DUE TO JET
DYNAMICS AND PVA PATTERN. THIS SYSTEM EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK...INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN WARMER WEDNESDAY AS STRONG CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST. BY LATE THURSDAY A SECOND SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR OVERTAKES THE CWA WITH QUITE COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 75
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