next cold snap and snow chance

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon everyone. The big story has been cold and wind as of late. However for today at least, while it's cold, winds are near calm for the time being. The following below are the actual high and low temperatures I observed from here in Essex, Maryland in Baltimore County since Thursday and some snow stats from Saturday night and for the 2003-2004 winter season so far. It's been a cold period in through here. Our normal high in Baltimore is 41 and normal low is 23 for this time of year.

Thursday low temp: 18
Thursday high temp: 30
Friday low temp: 12, wind chill -10
Friday high temp: 31, wind chill 14-21
Saturday low temp: 19
Saturday high temp: 37
Sunday low: 29 with snow, mixed with sleet
Sunday high: 37 with sleet changing to rain.

1 inch of snow fell Saturday night into Sunday morning. That brings our total since December 1st, 2003 to 12 inches. BWI has received 10.4 inches since December 1st, 2003.

Monday low: 20 and windy
Monday high: 30 and windy
Tuesday low: 18 and breezy
Tuesday high: 32 and calm

Looking ahead, there is some hope for a brief thaw across the Middle Atlantic region on Thursday with a high of 42 in Baltimore and Washington DC on Thursday. This will be near average for a change. Then a clipper system will move through the Mid Atlantic region later in the day Thursday with much colder air and gusty winds Thursday night with wind chills near zero from DC through Baltimore and Philly with lower wind chills lower than that north and west.

This same clipper system has dumped 3.4 inches of snow on Muskegon, Michigan and 0.4 inches in grand rapids, Michigan so far. 3-6 inches of snow is expected in west central Lower Michigan with this clipper. However there could be locally higher amounts in the favored lake effect or lake enhanced zones through this evening.

As this clipper moves east tonight through tomorrow, snow could affect the northeast and mid atlantic region in the form of snow showers or brief squalls. No huge accumulations are expected except in the favored lake effect areas where up to 6 inches is possible locally. Some portions of Lakes Erie and Ontario are frozen though. So maximum accumulations of lake effect snow are not likely as many areas of Lakes Erie and Ontario are freezing over.

Behind this clipper, temperatures tank and wind chills could approach dangerous levels once again with negative numbers just northwest of the major metro areas.

With this cold air remaining in place through the weekend, a southern stream storm system will approach the mid atlantic region at the same time on Saturday. From central Pennsylvania southward into north central Maryland and northern West Virginia, snow could accumulate significantly up to over 4 inches potentially before changing over or mixing with rain or sleet south of the mason dixon line later Sunday through Monday am. The highest snow amounts will likely be along the mason dixon line eastward over to south central New Jersey. This will likely be the next real snow chance for Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington DC, and even up to New York City as well. The best chance for significant snow in these places will be from Saturday night through Sunday evening before tapering off Sunday night or early Monday morning.

More updates on this storm later tonight.

Jim

[Chris the Weather Man]

Jim, Great Forecast!