ggem, ukmet, and nogaps are all showing a classic track for

[Guest]

NC snow. Nogaps, ukmet, ggem are all in exceptional agreement in the track of the SLP system for this weekend/monday. The only missing piece of the puzzle is a strong high pressure system over southeast canada. A piece which i think will put in place as we draw closer and closer to this weekend, due to the intense 500mb/SLP system near NF. If things were to go as the global models are portraying now, there would be a CAD/in-situ/CAD type situation. This would lead to a snow/ice/rain mix over to snow, over portions of central and west NC/VA. GFS is showing copious amounts of moisture in TX/southeast.

SLP track from gulf coast to off of hatteras.

ISSUES-

1.) NF low- if the low near 50/50 is stronger than expected then there will be a higher chance for sinking air/HIGH pressure in southeast canada. This will also be a key influence on number 2.

2.) Alaskan Vortex s/w- Late this week a piece of energy appears to be ejected out of this alaskan vortex into southern canada. What happens with this s/w? does it gets sheared apart, does it get forced south? RIght now i would go for option 1, leading to no phase, and no blockbuster storm.

3.) Cutoff in the southwest- How fast will this s/w eject energy into the southeast or will it cutoff for a period of time?

Timing will be have to be perfect for a "MECS".

Timing will be crucial for a "major" NC snowstorm.

TIming will be significant for a "moderate" NC snowstorm.

[chadtm80]

Great Post!!! Thanks for sharing your thoughts

[jpp5862]

Good post HKY. I would really like to see this verify, even for a moderate NC snow event. Will be interesting to see if the cold air is in place and stays there long enough to give us some snow.

[Anonymous]

I go by a real simple rule...................



"The simpler the storm, the more likely it will verify."


The more complicated the scenario........................the less probable it is to verify...................unless we are talking the upper northeast corridor, because MUCH less has to come together for there to be a BIG storm up there.

Can you say "Climatologically favored" ?





-JEB

[JQ Public]

great post...not that it matters but twc called for snow monday and a rain snow mix for part of nc/va sunday