TWC is not showing ANYTHING

#1 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 7:22 am

for Thursday! I guess it wasn't a hiccup afterall for the models.

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 8:47 am

Weather channel shows something for me just not what I care to see :cry:

Would be great if these temps were about 15-20 degrees colder at night. Oh well, I guess I will give up hope on a snowy florida... when hurricane season starts :wink:

Saturday: Occasional showers. Highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

Sunday: Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the mid 40s.

Monday: Few showers. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the low 40s.

Tuesday: Chance of showers. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the low 40s.

Wednesday: Some sun with a few showers possible. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the low 40s.

Thursday: Rain. Highs in the mid 60s and lows in the upper 40s.

#3 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 9:26 am

JB announced though on Accuweather on KYW 1060 Philadelphia that he still expects 3 - 6 inches.

JCT777 · #4 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 10:24 am

Stephanie - I have no idea what TWC was looking at, unless they expect all the snow to fall between 6 PM Wednesday and 6 AM Thursday (which would mean they would not show snow during the day for Wed. or Thursday). BTW - The 12z ETA looks a little more promising, as it shifts the track of the storm south. 3 to 5 (and maybe 6) inches for the Philly area looks good, with maybe 7 or 8 inches in ACY.

#5 Postby **Stephanie** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 12:32 pm

JCT777 wrote:Stephanie - I have no idea what TWC was looking at, unless they expect all the snow to fall between 6 PM Wednesday and 6 AM Thursday (which would mean they would not show snow during the day for Wed. or Thursday). BTW - The 12z ETA looks a little more promising, as it shifts the track of the storm south. 3 to 5 (and maybe 6) inches for the Philly area looks good, with maybe 7 or 8 inches in ACY.

Thanks! I didn't look at the models when I first posted that. The local radio station (Atlantic City) is calling for 2 - 4 inches. I saw the 6z GFS this morning and it still looked good for snow. I was just in shock!

#6 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 12:41 pm

Appears as though models have a better grasp on the clipper now. Now with the clipper on shore, it should be easier to follow as others have pointed out. D.C is now saying 1-3 area wide with Winter weather advisories being issued Wed a.m. for some areas. We might see 2-4 in areas as well.

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 2:43 pm

Weather.com has now changed the Woodbridge, VA page to read, Partly Cloudy and 34 degrees on Thursday.

That north track can really pack a sting. However, all you lucky folks up north and east, ENJOY THAT SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It'll be heavy at times, the sweet spot will easily see 10 inches!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey, who's gonna put up the Winter Screw Warning for northern Virginia? LOL!!!! Because for N VA, a genuine WS event is imminent within the next 24 to 36 hours LOL!!!!

-JEB

#8 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 2:53 pm

NWS states model trends are further south and a bit deeper system. Do not count it out yet. Last week you guessed 17 flurries and got a solid inch on the ground.

JCT777 · #9 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 2:59 pm

Lowpressure wrote:NWS states model trends are further south and a bit deeper system. Do not count it out yet. Last week you guessed 17 flurries and got a solid inch on the ground.

Agreed. IMO, the DC area should see at least a couple of inches of snow.

Anonymous · #10 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:10 pm

Ok I'll take that under advisement until after the storm.

The official Jebcast Weatherplex forecast for N VA with this system is 5 to 12 flurries, with anywhere from a coating to half-an-inch of snow.

-JEB

mathias1979 · #11 Postby **mathias1979** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:13 pm

When will you people learn to quit trusting TWC? They've been worthless ever since they stopped using NWS forecasts as the local forecast. I'm pretty sure the local forecasts are now all computer generated, no actual humans work on those forecasts. Therefore, they change with every model run and are very unreliable. So to all you non-meteorologists, start using NWS forecasts or local television stations, you'll be much better off.

-Matt

JCT777 · #12 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:16 pm

Mathias - good advice. I did get a good laugh though from seeing the 7 day local forecast on TWC that showed no precip at all for Wednesday or Thursday. I just think it stinks for those less informed who actually think TWC local forecasts beyond day 1 are meaningful.

#13 Postby **Dave C** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:20 pm

Your better off watching storm stories then watching their forecasts. :lol:

Anonymous · #14 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:30 pm

mathias1979 wrote:When will you people learn to quit trusting TWC? They've been worthless ever since they stopped using NWS forecasts as the local forecast. I'm pretty sure the local forecasts are now all computer generated, no actual humans work on those forecasts. Therefore, they change with every model run and are very unreliable. So to all you non-meteorologists, start using NWS forecasts or local television stations, you'll be much better off.

-Matt

Thank you very much for straightening me out, matthias. I really appreciate it. I will watch TWC no more, and I am removing weather.com from all my web pages and html listings of URLs as of tomorrow.

000
FXUS61 KLWX 131959
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EST TUE JAN 13 2003

TONIGHT-WED

AS OF 18Z ARCTIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR WHITE PLAINS NY TO JUST
SOUTH OF JST TO NEAR WILMINGTON OH. FRONT WILL CROSS THE FCST AREA
AROUND 21Z AND SHOULD BE WELL S OF THE ARA BY 00Z TUE. THERE COULD
BE A BRIEF PERIOD (1-2HR) OF 30-35 MPH GUSTS WITH FROPA ASSOCIATED
WITH ISOLABARRIC PRES SURGE. LOW TEMP FCST A CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT.
MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. HOWEVER MOS DOES NOT
PERFORM TOO WELL NEAR BDRIES. DEWPOINTS ARE FCST TO CRASH INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BY MORNING WITH HIGH PRES SETTLING OVR THE AREA BY 12Z
ALG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. GIVEN EXPECTED EXCELLENT
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BY MORNING AND ARCTIC AIR MASS MOVING IN
DECIDED TO GO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN MOS. WENT WITH LOW RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TEENS ALG THE MASON DIXON LINE TO THE MID TEENS METRO
AREA TO THE UPPER TEENS NEAR CHO.

TOMORROW...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY. 12Z MESOETA
AND GFS INDICATE -SN DEVELOPING AFTER 4PM AS SEEN ON Q VECTOR FIELDS
AND H7-H5 RH AND OMEGA FIELDS. AMTS THRU 00Z THU WILL BE LIGHT LESS
THAN AN INCH. WENT COLDER AGAIN THAN GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 20S NORTH TO NEAR FREEZING NEAR CHO.

ROSA

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-TUE):

SN LOOKS TO BECOME HVIER DURG WED EVE HRS...PRBLY HVST BTWN 9 PM - 2
AM. ATTM THNIKING 1-2" IN NOVA/DC/ERN WV/MD...UP TO 1" SRN VA. ALTHO
SN MAY BEGIN LATE IN 2ND PD THE BULK WOULD BE IN THE 3RD PD. THIS
MEANS THAT WE'LL HOLD ON ADVSRY SINCE IT'S A 3RD PD EVENT.

FNT WL MV RAPIDLY OFF THE CST THU MRNG. FEEL SOME LGT SN COUD GET
WRUNG OUT IN THE COLDER AIR...BUT PCPN WL TAPER QUICKLY BY THE END
OF THE MRNG RUSH ON THU. A RLTVLY COLD DAY THEREAFTER W/ NW WINDS.

WE ARE CURRENTLY IN WHAT ARE CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE COLDEST DAYS OF
THE YR...AND THE PROGGED AIR FM THE HUDSON BAY SOURCE RGN SHOULD
KEEP THAT STAT INTACT THROUGH THE ERLY PART OF NEXT WK.

QSTNS OVER WHAT WL HAPPEN W/ THE NEXT PSBL SNOWMAKER ON MON. BOTH
00Z MRF AND TDA'S MAN PROGS TTRACK THE LOW OVR GA. THIS ISN'T A
PRIME POSN FOR SN IN OUR CWA. HOWEVER IF MDLS TRACK THIS FURTHER N
IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS... HENCE A CHC OF SN WL BE FCST FOR MON.

WOODY!

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SML CRFT ADVSRY PTMC AND NRN CHES BAY.

$$

Yup, I do believe I see what everyone's talking about here. Let's hope the FCST verifies and the model tracks keep moving south and the storm deepens just a bit more, and we may just have something here in N VA.

-JEB

mathias1979 · #15 Postby **mathias1979** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:52 pm

See...what a utopian society this would be if everyone were more like Jeb.

But seriously, sorry if I came off sounding like a jerk, that tends to happen when I get on rants like that. I just want people to know that TWC is far from the most accurate forecasts available out there.

-Matt

Anonymous · #16 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 4:08 pm

mathias1979 wrote:See...what a utopian society this would be if everyone were more like Jeb.

But seriously, sorry if I came off sounding like a jerk, that tends to happen when I get on rants like that. I just want people to know that TWC is far from the most accurate forecasts available out there.

-Matt

Thanks Matt

Nope, you did NOT come off sounding like a jerk. I stick with the NWS now, not that crappy weather.com

-JEB

TWC is not showing ANYTHING

TWC is not showing ANYTHING

TWC...

Who is online