JAN 14-15 SECS...BRUTAL COLD to follow...among other things:

ColdFront77 · #21 Postby **ColdFront77** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 8:56 pm

That's true, that would be the opposite of NVA which is Negative Vorticity Advection... but of course that isn't the topic of this discussion.

Now back to the potential for this week's storm.

Stormsfury · #22 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 9:03 pm

Now back to your regularly scheduled update. :wink:

Even the ETA phases the system out to sea and the two lows (the PV and the phased system begin to Fujiwhara around each other at the end of the 84 hour period (18z run)

That would introduce EXTREMELY bitterly cold air ... notice the -30ºC pocket right over ME, and the amazing thing here is that the arctic dome is DENSE and the SFC temperatures to 850mb heights may not be THAT MUCH DIFFERENT! ... I would NOT be surprised to see some -30º to -40º temperature reports coming from Maine in that timeframe!

SF

Stormsfury · #23 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:25 pm

EURO day 10 3 day average

Interesting ... PV in a more climo position, PNA ridging, a weak -NAO signal and another s/w in the split flow ...

weatherfan · #24 Postby **weatherfan** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:31 pm

HM on the other board imo brought up a very good point regarding simple set ups for major winter storms.And more challening sets up such as this.As when you look back at our biggest snow storms like 1996,1993 1978.These were accually all simple set ups.That was much easeyer to see coming and to forecasts out in the long range and also seems to favor our worse storms.The challening sets ups were March 2001,December 2000 and January 25,2000 while Januarey,2000,25 was an exceation.Most of the times in these chellenings types of set ups where there is just to many compcutated things going on.With all sorts of differents sws and time iusses.These sets ups always more times then not go wrong for the major east coast blizzards and snow storms and more people then not normally get screwed.Anker March 2001 and December 2000 are great examples of this.Januarey 2000,25 was the exceation to the rule.So while there is possablteys this weekend because of the complex and compucated of it.It is also likey that we will not see a historect storm this weekend.Base on everything not coming all togeather for it.Which is accually not unusel in these compcucated sets up.

#25 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:38 pm

Stormsfury wrote:EURO day 10 3 day average

Interesting ... PV in a more climo position, PNA ridging, a weak -NAO signal and another s/w in the split flow ...

thats the stuff of trouble...and take notice to whats going on in europe...

Stormsfury · #26 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:42 pm

FLguy wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:EURO day 10 3 day average

Interesting ... PV in a more climo position, PNA ridging, a weak -NAO signal and another s/w in the split flow ...

thats the stuff of trouble...and take notice to whats going on in europe...

Hmmm, nice cutoff low in Europe under the ridge which is yielding a slightly NEG NAO signal .. also along with the PNA ridging, the PAC JET is screaming again under the Aleutian Low, and Alaskan ridging is appearing once again ...

Oh boy ...

#27 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:48 pm

on the new 0z run (valid 1/16 at 06z):

loses the dipole structue and re-centers the PV at the other end of the lobe over Nova Scotia. with NO fujiwhara effect:

notice also tha the PV is still VERY strong at 492 decameters. heights are extremely low across eastern new england and with the snow cover on the ground i think this may lead to one of the more impressive Arctic outbreaks well see for some time to come.

1000-500 thicknesses are also very low across new england.

Stormsfury · #28 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:55 pm

And the 00z GFS at 78 hours appears to be trending towards that same idea ...

SF

#29 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:55 pm

still however it doesnt appear as if the cold will directly impact the southern states.

#30 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:57 pm

Stormsfury wrote:And the 00z GFS at 78 hours appears to be trending towards that same idea ...

SF

but if we are to be able to get the system coming through the STJ to phase with the PJ nd become a big problem for the eastern US this weekend we need to get that F**** PV out of there.

#31 Postby **FLguy** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 10:59 pm

it would be a damn shame to waste that prime STJ energy.

Stormsfury · #32 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:02 pm

Agreed ... and it's placement displaced that far south and east is LOUSY for a MECS/SECS for the weekend event ... however, could imply something ... ok, for the Carolinas (NC, particularly) IF a damming high can set up ...

Yeah, tell me about it ... and ashame to waste that MUCH cold air and it's fairly localized in the NE/MA ... shift the whole pattern 250 miles west and we'll talk ... :lol:

Stormsfury · #33 Postby **Stormsfury** » Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:12 pm

HOLY CRAP! ... The 00z GFS at 72 hours has the -36ºC isotherm over MT. Washington at 72 hours!!!! ...

Anonymous · #34 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 12:05 am

I get the feeling, that during this next outbreak of cool arctic air, that I will be taking a very cool jebwalk, but this time in air considerably cooler than 9 degrees at the time of the jebwalk.

-ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

will · #35 Postby **will** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 12:51 am

Jeb wrote:I get the feeling, that during this next outbreak of cool arctic air, that I will be taking a very cool jebwalk, but this time in air considerably cooler than 9 degrees at the time of the jebwalk.

-ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Bet you wish you were here:)
Forecast for tommorrow is 2-4 inches of snow, a high temperature of 5-10 degrees(as I write this, at 1am, the temperature outside is -15) and then a low of -25 with wind between 20 and 30 and windchills near -60.

Anonymous · #36 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 1:20 am

will wrote:
Jeb wrote:I get the feeling, that during this next outbreak of cool arctic air, that I will be taking a very cool jebwalk, but this time in air considerably cooler than 9 degrees at the time of the jebwalk.

-ARCTIC BLAST JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Bet you wish you were here:)
Forecast for tommorrow is 2-4 inches of snow, a high temperature of 5-10 degrees(as I write this, at 1am, the temperature outside is -15) and then a low of -25 with wind between 20 and 30 and windchills near -60.

Yup I wish I were there. We are in for another direct smashing hit from Old Man Spring tomorrow, with highs in the upper 50s. Additionally, we will probably be screwed by the clipper as it takes a much more northerly track. I would be the very first to insist that winter is FAR from over; with the caveat that even though this winter is certainly a cold one for the MA and NE, I believe that this winter may turn out to be more of a dry event though quite arctic. Here's hoping for 3 to 6 flurries LOL!

-JEB

Lehigh · #37 Postby **Lehigh** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 4:25 am

SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE. HIGHEST TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND... WASHINGTON DC... AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE DEPENDING UPON TRACK OF THE STORM

JCT777 · #38 Postby **JCT777** » Tue Jan 13, 2004 10:17 am

FLguy and Stormsfury - awesome thread! I love reading your discussions. Keep up the great work.

JAN 14-15 SECS...BRUTAL COLD to follow...among other things:

The Simplest set ups seem to faver our wrost storms.

Who is online