UGH ... EURO 8-10 day 3 day average depicts ...

[Stormsfury]

THE ABSOLUTE worst nightmare for snow hounds in the East ... a Pos. NAO, and a SCREAMING PAC JET with a strong TROUGH in the WEST ...

3 day average Day 10 EURO

[Upslope]

SF,

ALL models are going to have some messed up runs as we transition from the hectic pace we have seen with the very short wavelengths to the longer wave troughs that are likely to develop.

I think Tonight's run of the EURO is crap in the 7-10 day run. It looks as if it STILL has the remnants of the Christamas closed low sitting in the NE during the 7-10 day period. I DON'T think that will be the case. But, let's say it's correct, wouldn't that closed low across the NE be raising heights ahead of it? I would think so, but it shows NO ridging ahead of it and has a very positive NAO instead. That just looks suspect to me!

Even if the EURO is correct, this still looks to be a very broad based trough that is TRANSIENT in nature moving into the plains state.

Notice in the pacific... the STJ is still very much alive and well, however we are seeing ridging reaching into Alaska. This would suggest that while arctic air is moving through the west and plains... indercutting storms from the STJ are certainly likely. Based on the overall flow, these storms would likely ride along the southern edge of this arctic boundary and pull the trough more toward the east. At least that's my theory!

But, as I said... I don't like the solution the EURO has come up with!

[RNS]

THE ABSOLUTE worst nightmare for snow hounds in the East ... a Pos. NAO, and a SCREAMING PAC JET with a strong TROUGH in the WEST ...

3 day average Day 10 EURO

Its only temporary IMO. and thats providing that the EC is correct.

The GFS ensembles continue to indicate the development of a DEEP eastern US trough around and after the new year:

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 21812.html

Notice strong ridge just off the west coast of north america...split flow across the pacific...trough east of hawaii and weak trough in western europe and blocking in NW canada by the end of the period (372 hrs VT 0z 1/3/04). All in all looking like a very cold and stormy pattern to start the new year.

The nasty ridge forming this week in central asia would implicate the formation of a trough near the alleutian islands (about a week and a half to two weeks down the road)...which supported by our sub-tropical trough east of HI would allow for the development of a strong ridge just off the west coast of north america with blocking in northwestern canada (indicated by the GFS ensembles). as a split flow develops across the eastern pacific



(deja-january '03??) this would then establish the large...deep trough in the eastern part of the country and an arctic outbreak to begin the month of JAN and the new year in the EUS.

Notice also the variance in the ensem. members just to the east of hawaii indicating plenty of STJ energy to go around.

there is strong support as well among the ensemble members to tank the Arctic Oscillation toward the first of JAN after being mostly positive for several weeks:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

[Stormsfury]

The EURO hasn't exactly been lackluster with the handling of the SBJ only to catch on late in the game ... sort of sub-standard, by the ECMWF's normal standards ..

I haven't really sat down and looked at the ensembles (glanced at the 12z ens. means earlier

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/GFS.html

and look at the 12z Ensembles at 192, 216, and 240 hrs and the scary thing is the ensemble spread somewhat supports the op EC depicts (spooky)...

Here's the Day 10 GFS 12z Ens. Spread ... and most ALL point to trough west ... but with maybe a HINT of changes to come ...



One of the other things that bugs me though are these ripples (or 500mb disturbances around the trough in the East currently ... particularly the one that is currently affecting SE KY, E TN, the favored upslope regions in NC and even in VA away from the mountains ...

Even the 18z ETA even hints at an energy split with the next storm system driving the low southeastward through the Western States ...



I really don't know what I should be expecting, but in the next couple of days, I wouldn't be surprised to see some really surprising solutions (case in point, the 18z GFS) ...

[Stormsfury]

Holy sh!t, RNS ... if the GFS ensemble means for Jan 2, 2004 pan out, we're talking cross-polar flow straight from the Siberia! ...

SF

[RNS]

The EURO hasn't exactly been lackluster with the handling of the SBJ only to catch on late in the game ... sort of sub-standard, by the ECMWF's normal standards ..

I haven't really sat down and looked at the ensembles (glanced at the 12z ens. means earlier

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Models/GFS.html

and look at the 12z Ensembles at 192, 216, and 240 hrs and the scary thing is the ensemble spread somewhat supports the op EC depicts (spooky)...

Here's the Day 10 GFS 12z Ens. Spread ... and most ALL point to trough west ... but with maybe a HINT of changes to come ...



One of the other things that bugs me though are these ripples (or 500mb disturbances around the trough in the East currently ... particularly the one that is currently affecting SE KY, E TN, the favored upslope regions in NC and even in VA away from the mountains ...

Even the 18z ETA even hints at an energy split with the next storm system driving the low southeastward through the Western States ...



I really don't know what I should be expecting, but in the next couple of days, I wouldn't be surprised to see some really surprising solutions (case in point, the 18z GFS) ...

Also SF...the strong trough coming into japan tomorrow argues for a trough in the EUS 6-10 days later...which would take us out to between the 24th and 28th (another reason why the EC is suspect...IMO)... however I still cant be too sure due to the goings on in western europe during that period. for instance the EC off tonights run in the 8-10 day means is developing a clearly defined ridge in western europe...which obviously teleconnects to a ridge off the southeast coast...at the same time as the events taking in place in japan argue for the trough in the EUS.

[Stormsfury]

The EURO, in other words for a 3 day mean, totally contradicts itself from a telekenetic standpoint ...

SF

[RNS]

Holy sh!t, RNS ... if the GFS ensemble means for Jan 2, 2004 pan out, we're talking cross-polar flow straight from the Siberia! ...

SF

my point exactly...which given the big broad ridge developing in asia (as i pointed out before) would set in motion the downstream pattern to support such events...though it may not be confined just to the eastern part of the country...the trough MAY be more borad based...which if so...the western high plains...northern rockes and portions of the midwest would also get in on the act.

[R0bb0871]

It is so entertaining and interesting to read both of your posts. Keep up the good work!

[RNS]

The EURO, in other words for a 3 day mean, totally contradicts itself from a telekenetic standpoint ...

SF

its hard to say...obviously the trough coming into the east at that time would be mitigated by the development of a ridge in western europe...and the +NAO (per the EC) doesn/t help things much either...i must say though i will take the OBSERVED weather over SIMULATED weather (model output).

remember though...just because we have that teleconnection to use (with the trough coming into japan)...it isn/t the entire puzzle. other factors arguing differently can override that teleconnection.

[Stormsfury]

The EURO, in other words for a 3 day mean, totally contradicts itself from a telekenetic standpoint ...

SF

its hard to say...obviously the trough coming into the east at that time would be mitigated by the development of a ridge in western europe...and the +NAO (per the EC) doesn/t help things much either...i must say though i will take the OBSERVED weather over SIMULATED weather (model output).

remember though...just because we have that teleconnection to use (with the trough coming into japan)...it isn/t the entire puzzle. other factors arguing differently can override that teleconnection.

This is probably why I'm a little baffled at the outputs (and the lack of posts recently) except for some regarding the clipper system and its associated 500mb disturbance that I posted about earlier this week ... and also in general, how poorly the models pick up on this little clipper systems within the mean trough ...

Also with split flow, the real fun begins watching the models waffle thru and fight over which branch is more dominant ...

SF

[RNS]

The EURO, in other words for a 3 day mean, totally contradicts itself from a telekenetic standpoint ...

SF

its hard to say...obviously the trough coming into the east at that time would be mitigated by the development of a ridge in western europe...and the +NAO (per the EC) doesn/t help things much either...i must say though i will take the OBSERVED weather over SIMULATED weather (model output).

remember though...just because we have that teleconnection to use (with the trough coming into japan)...it isn/t the entire puzzle. other factors arguing differently can override that teleconnection.

This is probably why I'm a little baffled at the outputs (and the lack of posts recently) except for some regarding the clipper system and its associated 500mb disturbance that I posted about earlier this week ... and also in general, how poorly the models pick up on this little clipper systems within the mean trough ...

Also with split flow, the real fun begins watching the models waffle thru and fight over which branch is more dominant ...

SF

I agree...assuming that the DEEP trough as depicted by the 12z GFS ensembles Does develop in the east and my theory on how the ridging later this week in central asia relates to it...with input from the STJ we would see plenty of energy in a supressed pattern (a hell of alot of cold air around givent he cross-polar flow) could lead to a significant winter storm across the southern part of the country just after the new year...

overall however i think the second and third week of JAN will be especially active across the country with plenty of potential for alot of folks to see significant winter weather.

[Stormsfury]

I agree...assuming that the DEEP trough as depicted by the 12z GFS ensembles Does develop in the east and my theory on how the ridging later this week in central asia relates to it...with input from the STJ we would see plenty of energy in a supressed pattern (a hell of alot of cold air around givent he cross-polar flow) could lead to a significant winter storm across the southern part of the country just after the new year...

overall however i think the second and third week of JAN will be especially active across the country with plenty of potential for alot of folks to see significant winter weather.

Well, it definitely would be a nice way to start the New Year. Remembering last January, how the active SBJ in December 2002 suddenly shut off as the cold air became quite entrenched across the EUS by early/mid January in 2003 and relatively shunted everything south (but not far enough, from my standpoint .. LOL) as the PV crushed nearly everything in the so-called "shear zone" ...

IMHO, I see some bigger differences this year as I don't see the SBJ cutting off ... and in fact, to some extent, is it not impossible for rex-blocking signatures (cutoff low south, ridge over the top of it) to develop in the EPAC regions?

SF

[RNS]

I agree...assuming that the DEEP trough as depicted by the 12z GFS ensembles Does develop in the east and my theory on how the ridging later this week in central asia relates to it...with input from the STJ we would see plenty of energy in a supressed pattern (a hell of alot of cold air around givent he cross-polar flow) could lead to a significant winter storm across the southern part of the country just after the new year...

overall however i think the second and third week of JAN will be especially active across the country with plenty of potential for alot of folks to see significant winter weather.

Well, it definitely would be a nice way to start the New Year. Remembering last January, how the active SBJ in December 2002 suddenly shut off as the cold air became quite entrenched across the EUS by early/mid January in 2003 and relatively shunted everything south (but not far enough, from my standpoint .. LOL) as the PV crushed nearly everything in the so-called "shear zone" ...

IMHO, I see some bigger differences this year as I don't see the SBJ cutting off ... and in fact, to some extent, is it not impossible for rex-blocking signatures (cutoff low south, ridge over the top of it) to develop in the EPAC regions?

SF

the STJ will not relax much...though i do think the pattern will become more favorable for a supressed storm track at least the first week or two of the month.

Remember also our correlation between the warm water just west of the dateline and a very cold january...in 2001/02 that factor was mitigated by the high solar activity and strongly positive EPO...this year it will be allowed to influence the pattern as neither of those two factors are present fight it off.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 6.2003.gif

as we can also see...late season TC activity in that region hasent done much to cool it off either...

remember its downstream influence supports a negative height anomaly near the alleutians which then develops the downstream PNA ridge (positive anomaly) and amplifies the eastern US trough.

[Stormsfury]

Two December Tropical Cyclones in the ATL basically was a once in a 100 year event ... and you're right, SST anomalies remain quite high in that region ... and it appears that the bursting activity was responsible for the recent Supertyphoon in the WPAC before our two ATL systems. The same bursting may be responsible for the recent surge in activity (TC 3B) which just recently hit India ...

SF

[Valkhorn]

Dont forget the TC near Darwin Australia...