Okay... that's enough

[meso_jr]

I really don't understand the problem. EVERYBODY in the Dayton metro. area is calling for MAYBE an inch of snow TOTAL out of the storm. Then, I log on to this site and wwbb and several people have the Ohio region getting 4-6, 10-12" of SNOW! I'm not trying to be mean, but how can there be so much difference from NWS and online ppl?

This has been bugging me, since this happened with the last storm as well. People on here were calling for 12" + for Southwest Ohio, while local mets. and the NWS said maybe an inch if that. Well, guess what we got...nothing.

I hope I don't offend anybody, and in fact I am not questioning the people that make the forecasts here or on wwbb. I just really want to know how there can be such conflict. I know the NWS and TWC follow specific models, but honestly- can they be that different?!

CRAZED!

Searching for my Bahama Mama

Jay

[Guest]

I really don't understand the problem. EVERYBODY in the Dayton metro. area is calling for MAYBE an inch of snow TOTAL out of the storm. Then, I log on to this site and wwbb and several people have the Ohio region getting 4-6, 10-12" of SNOW! I'm not trying to be mean, but how can there be so much difference from NWS and online ppl?

This has been bugging me, since this happened with the last storm as well. People on here were calling for 12" + for Southwest Ohio, while local mets. and the NWS said maybe an inch if that. Well, guess what we got...nothing.

I hope I don't offend anybody, and in fact I am not questioning the people that make the forecasts here or on wwbb. I just really want to know how there can be such conflict. I know the NWS and TWC follow specific models, but honestly- can they be that different?!

CRAZED!

Searching for my Bahama Mama

Jay

Well for the most part here anyways most of us did hit well in most places with the storm however as was the case for OUR location it was a bust. Not far to the north however we hit where as the nws and TWC Busted............Trust me when i say Everyone had a bust in one location or another with that storm from us on these boards to the NWS and TWC...............BTW the NWS (Wilmington/Cleveland) this time is starting to pick up on this system more and more as we approach it. BTW need i remind who busted badly with the PD 2 storm???? LOL.

[polarbear]

Then, I log on to this site and wwbb and several people have the Ohio region getting 4-6, 10-12" of SNOW! I'm not trying to be mean, but how can there be so much difference from NWS and online ppl?

I'm not sure about the higher amounts, but based on what I'm seeing so far, there "may" be 2-5" of wet snow along and just south of the Ohio River in KY and OH with 1-3" north of that area in IN/OH. The Eta and GGEM are the only forecast models showing QPF that would translate to those numbers. This can of course change. Everyone should have a better idea on possible accumulations later on Friday.

As far as widely varying totals...this depends on who is making the forecast, experience and knowledge.

[Guest]

Then, I log on to this site and wwbb and several people have the Ohio region getting 4-6, 10-12" of SNOW! I'm not trying to be mean, but how can there be so much difference from NWS and online ppl?

I'm not sure about the higher amounts, but based on what I'm seeing so far, there "may" be 2-5" of wet snow along and just south of the Ohio River in KY and OH with 1-3" north of that area in IN/OH. The Eta and GGEM are the only forecast models showing QPF that would translate to those numbers. This can of course change. Everyone should have a better idea on possible accumulations later on Friday.

As far as widely varying totals...this depends on who is making the forecast, experience and knowledge.

Pretty good answer except for the fact as i stated already that EVERYONE busted in one area or another with last weeks system which for the most part the models didnt do so great on ESPECIALLY where the bust occured.........So yes those with all the Experience and Knowledge did bust in some sort of way or another!!!!!! Perhaps you care to elaborate on the last comment more ???

[polarbear]

I mean that two people may see a difference scenario out of the same data set. The NWS has to be fairly objective when they make their forecasts, while we can forecast whatever we want.

I agree that the forecast models have been underestimating the strength of the winter storm systems of late. And, everyone can't agree on which solution(s) is (are) best to use when the models don't agree (differing forecasts).

[meso_jr]

Okay, I really didn't want this thread to get nasty, and I wasn't looking to blame people for a busted storm, etc. You all have your opinions and I respect that. I was actually more concerned with WHY doesn't the NWS pick up on the fact that there is at least a chance for a major snow? If everybody on here and wwbb sees some huge gigantic "wintercane" for the Ohio Valley, why is it that the NWS and (for the most part) my local mets/TWC always down play the signficance of the event? This has led to many busts on both parts. Trust me when I say that I value the information on the weather boards more than I do the NWS or local mets/TWC. I use the NWS as an "official" forecast- since they are the ones that can issue watches, but snow is definately NOT their strongest point. ILN is awesome with their severe weather forecasting (SKYWARN training next month!!!!), but absolutely suck at snow. That was the point I was trying to cross.

I know that everybody busts on storms. We aren't God! I'm just glad I don't live along the East Coast where apparently the weather is life or death every single time a snowstorm is near . One wrong forecast and their mets are sacked up and tossed over a bridge, right? I couldn't imagine life east of the Apps! Maybe some people think there still are only 13 colonies!!!! (j/k)

Jay

[StormCrazyIowan]

I'm just glad I don't live along the East Coast where apparently the weather is life or death every single time a snowstorm is near . One wrong forecast and their mets are sacked up and tossed over a bridge, right? I couldn't imagine life east of the Apps! Maybe some people think there still are only 13 colonies!!!! (j/k)

Jay

ROFL!!! AMEN!!

Well, look on the bright side, at least you have cautious mets on your local NWS and not people I disagree with!!! Oops, did I say that aloud?!

[Guest]

I'm just glad I don't live along the East Coast where apparently the weather is life or death every single time a snowstorm is near . One wrong forecast and their mets are sacked up and tossed over a bridge, right? I couldn't imagine life east of the Apps! Maybe some people think there still are only 13 colonies!!!! (j/k)

Jay

ROFL!!! AMEN!!

Well, look on the bright side, at least you have cautious mets on your local NWS and not people I disagree with!!! Oops, did I say that aloud?!

So your NWS said you were getting 4 - 7 and you got 2........LOL....J/K

Well ILN and ESPECIALLY Cleveland is very very gun shy when it comes to snow here and as well does very poorly as expected when forecasting such events. Severe weather and such yes they do a excelent job with.......