Wanted: A Big Snowshovel

[wx247]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
242 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2003

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PLOWING INTO THE ROCKIES WILL DIVE INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS, IT WILL DRAW LOTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM DEVELOPS A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND STALL OUT. BEHIND THIS FRONT, COLD AIR
WILL BE WAITING FOR THE MOISTURE TO RETURN AND PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF SNOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-081000-
BARTON KS-ELLSWORTH KS-HARVEY KS-LINCOLN KS-MARION KS-MCPHERSON KS-
RENO KS-RICE KS-RUSSELL KS-SALINE KS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELLSWORTH...GREAT BEND...HUTCHINSON...
LINCOLN...LYONS...MARION...MCPHERSON...NEWTON...RUSSELL AND SALINA
242 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2003

...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

RAIN WILL BE QUICKLY CHANGING OVER TO SNOW MONDAY EVENING AND
THEN CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WIND WILL ALSO PLAY
HAVOC ON THE SITUATION WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH WHICH WILL
CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE, BUT NOT IMMINENT. AT THE TIME, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING AND WALKING
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, SO IT IS
IMPORTANT TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.



URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
324 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2003

.AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT ACROSS OKLAHOMA...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING
LIFTED UP AND OVER THE COLD FRONT. IF THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM
REMAINS SIMILAR TO CURRENT EXPECTATIONS...NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WOULD
BE IN A FAVORED AREA FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WHILE THERE ARE STILL
TIMING QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONT...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SNOW
COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

KSZ008-009-020-021-034-035-081100-
CLAY-CLOUD-DICKINSON-OTTAWA-REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABILENE...CLAY CENTER AND CONCORDIA
324 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2003

...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...

RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY AND
CONTINUE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE
SNOWFALL...STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH WILL BLOW THE SNOW
AROUND CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED.

REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF FOOD. CHECK PRESCRIPTIONS TO
ENSURE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF MEDICINE THROUGH THE DURATION OF A
STORM. CHECK FURNACES AND FUEL LEVELS...AND IF TRAVEL IS NECESSARY...
MAKE SURE YOUR CAR IS WINTERIZED AND IN GOOD WORKING ORDER. DETAILS
OF THE POSSIBLE WINTER STORM COULD CHANGE SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.



EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
310 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2003

DIFFICULT FORECAST TUE/TUE NIGHT AS VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH/
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS AREA...WITH THE THREAT FOR STRONG
STORMS AND WINTER PRECIPITATION. IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE THE
WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF UPPER LOW. DWPTS IN THE 50S
EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTH DURING THE DAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT...KEEPING LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. AS STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS...COULD SEE ELEVATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY 12Z TUESDAY.
18Z MESOETA TRENDING TOWARD THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION WHICH TRIES TO
CUTOFF 500 MB LOW OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA...BECOMING NEG TILTED...
LIFTING FEATURE NORTHEAST OVER FA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST DURING THE DAY...SFC BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG FRONT...WITH LINE OF STRONG STORMS SWEEPING EAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITIES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO
SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS TEMP PROFILES
DROP BELOW FREEZING WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -20 TO -23 DEG C
RANGE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF 500 MB VORT...ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 2
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER TOTALS. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH AT
THIS TIME...HOWEVER IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSISTENCY WITH OVERALL STRENGTH/TRACK OF UPPER FEATURES...A WATCH
WOULD LIKELY BE NEEDED.

[Valkhorn]

Thats a good amount for you guys. I have a feeling the few feet of snow will melt down a lot in the Northeast but seeing as how the snowpack is building back in the midwest the NE will get more snow soon...

This winter is already becoming very interesting.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Indicate a solid 3-5 inch snowfall in the Wichita area. However just northwest of Wichita, 4-8 inches with local amounts of 10 inches are likely starting Monday night and particularly into Tuesday. It may all start out as showers and thunderstorms however. A wild start and then a wintry scene to follow for about 12-24 hours.

Also with the 40 mph wind gusts in Kansas and the more opened exposed areas, it will be easier to blow the snow around. So the potential for near whiteout conditions is there for the sunflower state.

Jim

[David]

I wonder when Topeka will get some kind of advisory.

[wx247]

You are just NE of the Winter Storm Watch. You will probably get some snow out of this.

[wx247]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
740 PM CST SUN DEC 7 2003

...FIRST MAJOR WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON TO TAKE AIM ON SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...

.A STORM SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA THIS
EVENING WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY. AS THE STORM
INTENSIFIES EARLY TUESDAY MORNING OVER WEST TEXAS, VERY STRONG NORTH
WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS, ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE
DANGEROUS NEAR BLIZZARD TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY TUESDAY. THE SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>088-081000-
CLARK-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-HASKELL-HODGEMAN-
KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-
STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHLAND...CIMARRON...DIGHTON...
DODGE CITY...ELKHART...GARDEN CITY...GREENSBURG...HAYS...HUGOTON...
JETMORE...JOHNSON...KINSLEY...LACROSSE...LAKIN...LARNED...LIBERAL...
MEADE...NESS CITY...SCOTT CITY...ST JOHN...SUBLETTE...SYRACUSE...
ULYSSES...WAKEENEY

...A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. WIDESPREAD TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE
ANTICIPATED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED. VERY LOW VISIBILITIES WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND
DRIFTING IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

[David]

This'll turn into warnings by tomorrow afternoon/night.. then NE KS will get a watch or advisory, later to be upgraded.

[wx247]

David... what is your snow total threshold to determine if you get a winter storm watch/warning vs. advisory?

Ours here is 6", but Tulsa's I believe is 4"+.

[weatherlover427]

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/top/winter/wint ... nology.htm

This page may help.

[wx247]

NGM and ETA trending toward a more northerly track this evening with the low. Better news for you David... not so good for me. The ETA brings it right up the I-44 corridor out of Oklahoma. The AVN is the outlier keeping the low farther south into Western Arkansas bringing into Souther Illinois. This would keep the heaviest snow across Southern Kansas and Missouri. Something to watch indeed...

[Anonymous]

I hope you guys get thrashed by heavy snow. I fervently hope that the NWS is way, way off and you get 30 inches of snow!!




-SnowBlitzJEB