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Heady Guy
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#21 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:02 pm

JCt:

DT's map did not make me happy. I Am a little confused on what to expect tonight. He seems to end it all be early Sat A.M It sorts looks like a small bust
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#22 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:07 pm

I would not expect the precip to end before noon, but maybe I am wrong. The last I have heard from local forecasters and the NWS, snow will be winding down in the late afternoon. So maybe we will get 4" to 8" instead of 2" to 6" after 4 AM Saturday.
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#23 Postby Colin » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:13 pm

Huh? 2-6" tomorrow? I don't think so! :o
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#24 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:15 pm

What time are those new models do out this afternoon?
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#25 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:16 pm

I think the 18z ETA may be out already. Let me check.
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#26 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:18 pm

Not a bad amount of precip for our area in the next 36 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_036m.gif

But compared to the precip in the next 24 hours, it is identical in SE PA.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 4_024m.gif

Meaning everything should be done before 6 PM Saturday. Still, I think we hang on to snow at least through early afternoon.
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#27 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:33 pm

when does it look like it may be the heaviest?
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#28 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:34 pm

Heady Guy - probably between midnight tonight and noon tomorrow is when the heaviest snow will fall, IMO.
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#29 Postby Stormchaser16 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:35 pm

John, i believe the ETA is WAY too fast with the second low, it is faster then all other models. BTW this storm looks very likely to last longer then the PDSII storm last year. Snow started i think around 3 last year and ended early afternoon the next day. First flakes were around 830 this morning so all i have to do is last longer then 830 tommorow morning and it will be longer lasting then the PDSII storm.
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#30 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:46 pm

Excellent point, stormchaser. I love long duration storms. If this goes beyond 7 AM tomorrow - and provided there is no lull of greater than an hour this evening (I don't count a <1 hour lull as a real break :wink: ) - it would be the longest duration event since the 1996 blizzard. That was roughly a 30 hour event. So this has a chance to be longer.
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#31 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:49 pm

I see the new model are really hammering NYC and NE...any word down here in the north burbs of the PHL area. Any snowfall projections over night in Saturday?
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#32 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:54 pm

From what I have seen, I really don't think we will get much more than snow showers after 6 PM on Saturday.
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#33 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:58 pm

Whats you best guess in the area when it all said and done. Iknow these are weenie questions.
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#34 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:01 pm

Heady Guy - No problem. I believe our area will get another 6 to 10 inches of snow by the end of storm #2. So there should be 10 to 15 inches on the ground by 5 PM tomorrow (I am assuming most of Montgomery County PA has 4 or 5 inches of snow currently).
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#35 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:08 pm

Call me crazy, but I am tossing the idea of driving upto the Elk Mountain area after work tonight for the event. BGM NWS is calling for 18-22 inches upthere or something.
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#36 Postby JCT777 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:31 pm

Good luck! I hope the driving conditions aren't too terrible.
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#37 Postby Heady Guy » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:36 pm

I most likely will not do that. I will be in the hills of Montco enjoying the snow. Hope the later models tonight give us some more juice.
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#38 Postby Guest » Fri Dec 05, 2003 10:04 pm

The reason why I shifted the heavy snow east and central / eastern PA to the 2-6 inch band is b/c all the bad has amazing heavy curved deformation band from eastern new england (bos) into CT NYC and NJ

NOT into PHILLY.
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#39 Postby Stephanie » Fri Dec 05, 2003 10:14 pm

It's been pretty quiet here for awhile now. I live in Gloucester County, just to the south of Philly. The maps are now starting to show the precipitation filling in.
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