The last OUT to sea Model Now shows SEVERE SNOWTORM !

Guest · #1 Postby **Guest** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:30 pm

The 12z Ukmet which has been used as some forecasters best hope for NO big storm.... which was lways MOST east with the 2nd low... is now doing what the eta and regm and gfs does..

parks a 991 Low at 72 W and 39 N. Bury city
Look.
http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ukmet_ame ... _0000.html

mike01205 · #2 Postby **mike01205** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:32 pm

WTG UKIE I knew you could do it

JCT777 · #3 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:32 pm

Looks great. An NYC snow dream!

WeatherGQ · #4 Postby **WeatherGQ** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:33 pm

FROM PHILLY UP? or DC up?

d · #5 Postby d » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:34 pm

Dave, looking at that how do you feel about Mt Holly and there BS call for the NJ coast with 1-3" total accums after all is said and done. I also looked at the Omega fields on the 12z runs of the ETA and GFS (simply amazing)

Stormchaser16 · #6 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:40 pm

That is a negative on the snow lovers dream in NYC. The UKMET when it is at 999 has NO snow for NYC or points west and south.

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ukmet_ame ... _0000.html

And in fact, is not impressive at all before that either.

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ukmet_ame ... _0000.html

VortexMax · #7 Postby **VortexMax** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:49 pm

Hello all, decided WWBB isn't getting up off the mat today. NWS ALB now forecasting 12+ in the Capital District and 12-18 in surrounding hills/mts. Interseting banding features on ETA over the past few model runs. This is one of the very few snowstorms we get in the NE that could blast nearly all of us, including coastal sections. Storm looks to crawl or nearly stall south of LI Saturday as it intensifies rapidly, evidenced by shortening wavelengths Saturday...

JCT777 · #8 Postby **JCT777** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 3:53 pm

Stormchaser - that is odd, I would have expected at least some partial wrap-around moisture on the left side of the low. We shall see if that is correct.

Stormchaser16 · #9 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 4:01 pm

Im not saying it is correct or anything, im just pointing out it is NOT the severe storm that these people are saying the Ukie is showing.

Guest · #10 Postby **Guest** » Fri Dec 05, 2003 10:06 pm

a seriously BAD mis read of the models by you.
The UKMET is a Global Model -- DONT ever use it for QFP.

Stormchaser16 wrote:That is a negative on the snow lovers dream in NYC. The UKMET when it is at 999 has NO snow for NYC or points west and south.

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ukmet_ame ... _0000.html

And in fact, is not impressive at all before that either.

http://www.sca.uqam.ca/models/ukmet_ame ... _0000.html

The last OUT to sea Model Now shows SEVERE SNOWTORM !

The last OUT to sea Model Now shows SEVERE SNOWTORM !

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