Next Week Storm

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WEATHERGURU
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Next Week Storm

#1 Postby WEATHERGURU » Fri Dec 05, 2003 8:57 pm

I live in Detroit, Mi. I have been looking at the storm possibility for these parts next tuesday thru thursday. The GFS keeps flip flopping East Coast or west of the appalacian mts. The new 12Z european has it heading from southeastern Arkansas to the middle atlantic states. I was wondering your thoughts on this possible storm or no storm for these parts? Thanks... :-?
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#2 Postby greg81988 » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:00 pm

will it give snow to richmond,va?
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#3 Postby Guest » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:08 pm

Hmmm.......Ok wwbb has the coined phrase "How much for Philly" Perhaps here it should be

How much for Richmond?????LOL

Seen alot of these recently...........Btw Greg its way to early to say yet :)...........Thats if it is even to be snow.............
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#4 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:18 pm

This is a pure southern stream depiction by the EURO tonight ... if anything, this appears more of a strong thunderstorm threat (at least in my neck of the woods in South Carolina) with the possibility of marginally severe hail with the 500mb low ... otherwise on Days 5/6 ... and a 70 kt 500mb jet streaking across may serve for some isolated damaging winds in stronger convection ...

This one doesn't have the northern tap of cold air currently that's being progged for the EURO and in fact, the 200 mb winds are QUITE LIGHT ... only 20.8 kts at the 200mb LEVEL!!!
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WEATHERGURU
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#5 Postby WEATHERGURU » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:26 pm

Hey Stormsfury do you think the EURO has the right idea or do you think it will go west of the mts and deepen as it heads future northeast?
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:30 pm

WEATHERGURU wrote:Hey Stormsfury do you think the EURO has the right idea or do you think it will go west of the mts and deepen as it heads future northeast?


The EURO from last night's run was further south and a bit colder ... and tonight's is a little further north and warmer ...

As far as I see, only the EURO is the only model that DOESN'T phase northern and southern stream energy and would highly have to be considered an outlier in regards to model consensus ... However, this is 2 runs in a row that the EURO continues to depict a southern stream system, and furthermore, the EURO is a far superior MR model than the other globals ...

There's time to wait and see which way it goes ... will it be the ECMWF trending towards phasing or the others trending towards the EC?

SF
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#7 Postby WEATHERGURU » Fri Dec 05, 2003 9:37 pm

Thanks
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