2nd call In case you missed it

[Guest]

3 maps ISSUED 1130 AM EST 4 DEC

http://www.wxrisk.com/meteopage.html

[Stormchaser16]

DT, any change looking at the radar or current data, with how much yo think the first round will bring, 6-12" seems way way overdone for the first round in most of Jersey?

[Guest]

the 2nd map covers or goes into SAT 4am....
which covers the beginning of the coastal Low BIG development

even so on map1 I have several inches in from western PA to central and eastern PA up to philly and DC and CHO.... to midday FRI. for NJ I dont have nearly that much.

In map 2 I dont have much over S NJ and Central NJ.... the 6-12 is over NW nj....

[Stormchaser16]

Ok, thanks for clearing that up with the timeframe. So if i were to add them up for NW jersey, id get 12-24", is that what ur still going to hold to tonight? ETA and GFS both show less then 15" for NW jersey and well the Euro speaks for itself.

[Guest]

The ETA shows over 1.20 for LGA..... what are U looking at?

[Stormchaser16]

DT like i said, showing less then 15", so im asking do u think you will be on the low end of your forecast range for NW jersey?

[Ababa]

ETA and GFS give NW jersey 1-1.25

[Stormchaser16]

SO yea that would mean the lower end of his 12-24" call range

[Ababa]

SO yea that would mean the lower end of his 12-24" call range

that would be my guess but I dunno I didn't put the map together and don't know all the factors going into that call. Final call tommorow/later tonight should resolve it.

[wxid]

I think he stated somewhere (DT) that he accidentally duplicated or double posted a total, perhaps thats related to this? Only he knows. ....
... DT, is your 3rd map total of 6-12 on Delmarva up to NJ said with confidence? Just wondering, most folks are saying nowhere near that.

[wxid]

Nevermind, i am assuming this is why:

DT wrote earlier:

...'the reason why so many services have snow in richmond is b/c the local NWSFO office like every other office in the east coast HAS to brown nose the GFS.

They say the ETA is Not like anything else so the 4PM afternoon discssuion the forecast said he HAD to rely on the GFS....

what a bunch of crap. every day from last sunday to wed the GFS had this Low on SC and NC (at 500 mb). NOW after it shifts 300 miles in 36 hrs it is to be trusted?

I dont think so.... The point is the nwsfo forecaster at the se va office relies on a model which is WRETCHED with regard to east coast snowstorms. The New data is already shifted North so RIC wont see any accumulating snow saturday.'