0Z Canadian Global Model's Take on Storm

[montrealboy]

[RNS]

Supports the 0z ETA and tonights EC...Also notice how the GFS has trended further north with the heaviest QPF...

[RNS]

I know the ETA solution is not too popular (and with good reason) however i think it may be onto something. the position of the H5 cutoff in europe is right near 40N...so if one assumes that teleconnection will analog for us the trending of the pattern here across the eastern part of the US...then the H5 vortmax should dig to a point then close off and slide east along the 40N Parallel.

the ETA also tries to drop more energy into the H5 trough holing the system closer to the coast.

[Heady Guy]

RNS:

What are feelings about the storm currently. Any chance of a write up?

[RNS]

What are feelings about the storm currently. Any chance of a write up?

Expect something along those lines tomorrow evening...for now suffice to say that PHL is looking at more of a snow/mixed precipitation situation with the possibility for significant accumulations as compared to rain/mixed precipitation. Right now the heaviest accumulations IMO should be northwest of the major cities (due in part to the location of the H85 low and the marine influences).

strong easterly LLJ at 35 to 45 kt on this past run of the ETA would provide sufficient moisture for heavy snowfall accumulations...however based on ETA-BUFKIT soundings I dont see favorable thermal profiles to support an all or mostly all snow event in PHL or DCA...NYC and BOX are another story. The LLJ can be a double edged sword as it would also contribute to enhanced Warm air advection in the low levels (at and below 5000 ft) helping to cahnge the snow to mixed precipitation.

[Guest]

You know RNS i do have to give you a hand and say VERY WELL DONE! For a couple of reasons. First off your the ONLY MET who has stuck to his guns at any of the sites i have been too (And yes that includes the supposed great WWBB) and as well it looks like the pay off is taking shape as most of what you have said looks like it will be happening! I would like to say on behalf of Storm2K thank you for sticking it out and sharing your thoughts here because it seems we have Gained a Great MET with lots of wisdom who knows his S H I T! Same goes for NeWxgirl! Great Job you two.

I as well thank all the others as well who have shared thier wisdom here on Storm2K! Y

Yea we may not be so big YET in the winter dept (such as wwbb)but as far as forecasting goes i have yet to see a better group of Great Pro's and amatures alike be it a small group for now! Great things do come in Small packages!!!!!!

I for one will take quality over quanity on any given day!