New 0Z Canadian Model (Dec 2) on Weekend Event

[montrealboy]

[Stormsfury]

Well, not as deep 979 mb on this run, but the 500mb LOW over SOUTH CAROLINA? ... further south, but not as strong. Development much further out to sea and then is drawn back towards the DELMARVA but well offshore ...

That's not making a lot of sense ...

SF

[RNS]

that makes all of no sense...the surface oow should be further back to the northeast of the h5 low not this sprawling surface low idea...though the EC did hint at that however kept the center closer to shore.

[Stormsfury]

IMHO, the EC is too close to the coast, while the CMC is obviously WAY too far offshore ... a good blend would be about 100 miles offshore ... and I really don't think the 500mb low is going to be THAT far south ... though, the CMC would imply a rain/snow ending in CHS (so I really don't buy that)...

SF

[RNS]

and the GFS solution is even worse...it phases the vort max associated with the closed low with the trough to the north and absoarbs it. thats BS...the GFS bias of over phasing things takes center state here...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

[Stormsfury]

and the GFS solution is even worse...it phases the vort max associated with the closed low with the trough to the north and absoarbs it. thats BS...the GFS bias of over phasing things takes center state here...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

You beat me to it ... also hints of the second low developing off of Hatteras with wraparound snows along the Carolina Coasts ... UGH!

[RNS]

aside from the GFS over phasing bias it may be the tropical interaction thats giving the models problems

[RNS]

and the GFS takes that out as well

[Stormsfury]

aside from the GFS over phasing bias it may be the tropical interaction thats giving the models problems

Oh yeah, I forgot about that ... actually, the low down there in the Caribbean earlier this afternoon was quite healthy and established, although very limited on convection ... Derecho (on a thread in the tropical forum)

It's much more defined with a clear low-level circulation.

Yes, there's less convection, but you can be a bit mislead if all you look at is IR.

A defined LLC with limited convection has more chance of developing than a lot of convection with no circulation.

Without visible, I can't tell where the circ is, but it's clearly evident of a mid-level turning of the system, although, it's very close to Panama right now ...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[RNS]

if it is to develop it has to get out into the carribbean...the circulation appears to be centered over panama its self and the system appears to be nearly stationary...