Interesting Afternoon Discussion from NWS CTP

tomboudreau · #1 Postby **tomboudreau** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 3:11 pm

I just read this discussion from the National Weather Service office out of State College PA. Sounds like this weekend is going to be rather wintry for Central PA. This is what is being said by them so far:

SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGES IN STORE FOR THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
AS NEGATIVE NAO SETS UP (GFS 7-10 DAY NAO FORECASTS - 500 MB
HEIGHTS). AFTER THE DRY AND TRANQUIL MIDWEEK PERIOD...01/12Z GFS
CONTS TO INDICATE STRONG CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATER THIS WEEK FROM ENERGETIC
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING BC COASTLINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL
FAR TOO EARLY TO EVEN ATTEMPT FINER DETAILS AS ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS...BUT IT/S FAIR TO SAY THAT THE MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS A LENGTHY PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP/AND OR SNOW
DEVELOPING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. OPTED NOT TO MAKE
ELABORATE CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE GOING DAY 5-6 GRIDS...BUT
THROUGH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...BUMPED POPS INTO
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FRI AS WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BREAK OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STRONG 1040+ MB HIGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA IS THE WILDCARD LATE THIS WEEK...AND CERTAINLY THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTRY EVENT CHARACTERIZED BY
ANOTHER STRONG JET ENTRANCE REGION SIMILAR TO MANY OF OUR EVENTS
LAST WINTER. STAY TUNED.

DEVOIR

Guess we will just have to stay tuned for later forecasts. It will be interesting to see what the Pittsburgh office says next for my area. My county borders right up against the State College office warning area. So it should be interesting to say the least.

More to come...

Tom

Colin · #2 Postby **Colin** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 3:17 pm

We'll see what Mt. Holly says...they have a Chance of Rain for Saturday and Sunday right now, I hope that changes to SNOW, because that's what most likely will happen IMO.

#3 Postby **wx247** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 3:22 pm

Accuweather (I know, I know... take it for what it is worth) is calling for 6"+ in SC PA.

JCT777 · #4 Postby **JCT777** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 4:04 pm

Rain and 33 degrees for ABE this weekend. :wink:

But seriously, given the pattern - I am very doubtful of a snow event. Maybe once there is an inch or two on the ground, I will believe it.

Colin · #5 Postby **Colin** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 4:12 pm

Yeah, OK...I think if it's 33 it'll be snow. :rolleyes: Things are looking very good IMO.

JCT777 · #6 Postby **JCT777** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 4:13 pm

You know I am just messin' with ya, Colin.

#7 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 4:13 pm

colin has a point there john...lol

#8 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 4:14 pm

WFO mount holly added mixed precip to the long range anyway...

Colin · #9 Postby **Colin** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 4:24 pm

yea i saw...its about time lol ... they better change it to all snow tomorrow or wednesday

#10 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 4:26 pm

they will as soon as the GFS figures out whats going on

Cheesy_Poofs · #11 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 4:59 pm

The NWS in STERLING, VA has kept " Chance of Showers" in there forecast since yesterday afternoon....Do you think that will change soon?? ( Maybe to rain/snow possible?? )

Colin · #12 Postby **Colin** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 5:23 pm

LOL...

Cheesy - I'm sure it will...most likely tomorrow night when things start coming together;)

#13 Postby **RNS** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 5:25 pm

based on the 18z GFS they probably will make that adjustment

Cheesy_Poofs · #14 Postby **Cheesy_Poofs** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 5:54 pm

oh, ok. Thanks.

I was just wondering, because my local forecasters are confuseing the heck out of me. One said " And watch out for a possible Winter Mix this weekend....." another said " When will we see our first snow? Maybe IN A COUPLE OF WEEKS.......", another said " This weekend will be intresting "...so I am starting to get really confused. lol.

WXBUFFJIM · #15 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 7:58 pm

Of course you gotta figure, the wet pattern just continues and never ends in the eastern seaboard. I say we just pickup right where we left off from last winter as far as QPF goes for the winter.

This system this weekend definitely looks loaded with juice. Time for more wintry wx, wouldn't ya think? On the other hand the middle atlantic area especially is way above normal precipitation wise for the year!! A very wet pattern indeed. Drought is the farthest thing from our minds!

Jim

tomboudreau · #16 Postby **tomboudreau** » Mon Dec 01, 2003 8:56 pm

And now...lets throw in the Pittsburgh Discussion for this weekend since I finally have some time to go and get it. They are calling for Rain??!!?? out of this system as well as a chance for flooding. Anyway...this is the discussion.

LAST 3 GFS RUNS ALL TRENDING TO BRING PRECIP FURTHER EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AROUND DAYBREAK
THURDAY TO SUPPORT SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AM. SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTH.
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE A SIGNFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE MON,YOUGH
RIVER BASINS WITH SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AND MELTING. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON POTENTIAL STREAM/RIVER FLOODING FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

RAIN WILL CHANGE BACK TO SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM WITH
SOME SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE

Lets see where this is going to go now over the next day or so. Will Pittsburgh keep it rain...or will they switch to snow...and will State College go the other way. Sure will be interesting to figure this out.

Interesting Afternoon Discussion from NWS CTP

Interesting Afternoon Discussion from NWS CTP

Looks more wintry to me

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