Big Snowstorm Unlikely for the East Coast Friday-Saturday

#21 Postby **RNS** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 5:32 pm

note also the block nosing in from the northeast

#22 Postby **RNS** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 5:34 pm

So you guys are saying natta for Central/Eastern OH from this? Or should i say very little?

probably the very little solution...

Guest · #23 Postby **Guest** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 6:15 pm

This is one of few times i may ever disagree with you RNS

I think this area is gonna get a decent dumping from this (Potential) system! 18Z GFS as i expected has trended a bit further west. More or less i expect areas from atleast as far west Columbus, OH to get a decent amount of snow! Lake will greatly help out as well with this one!!

If i was to pick between where and where i would go with As far east as Hagertown, MD and west to Columbus, OH and take that nne-ne into the Ne. Thats who i feel right now will get the bigger snows there is to be from this system. As always it still can change. But i am feeling more confident in this!
Time will tell!

donsutherland1 · #24 Postby **donsutherland1** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 6:35 pm

King of Weather,

I believe that the risk of significant snowfall for eastern and central Ohio remains low. This takes into consideration the latest ECMWF. The 18Z GFS' depiction looks to be somewhat suspect both from a synoptic standpoint and also the lack of run-to-run continuity.

In my view, the ECMWF continues to look very good especially when one also factors in the actual evolution of things:

11/25-30/2003 Animation (supersedes the 11/24-29 one at beginning of thread):

<img src="http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/attachment.php?s=&postid=132573">

Stormsfury · #25 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 6:38 pm

The 18z GFS just shoves the high pressure right out the way ... I mean, come on...that's a 1040mb+ plus high ...

Sure, we've been in a progressive pattern with the PAC JET, but cold air damming just doesn't get fought off that easily ...

SF

#26 Postby **RNS** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 6:50 pm

when the PAC jet goes to war with blocking and a 50/50 low...the pacific jet WILL LOSE. as long as the blocking is there...the 50/50 low isint going anywhere...and therefore the high stays in place. the system we will be dealing with this coming week is a perfect example.

Guest · #27 Postby **Guest** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 6:53 pm

Im not saying it will be fought off that easily but i do think what frozen precip there will be will (Mainly) stay well west of i95.

Even now the Euro is liking the GFS idea as of late.
Another problem that im seeing is the cold air itself which looks to be lacking even with that strong high by the end of the week?????

One thing i think we can all agree on is this is gonna be one big pain in the A S S system to forecast! LOL. I will feel alot better with a few more model runs and as well see how things go down in the Carib.

#28 Postby **RNS** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 6:54 pm

thats because the GFS underestimates the amount of cold air present in such a situation. and because of that it runs the system into the eastern lakes. it also diregards the blocking and 50/50 low.

#29 Postby **RNS** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 6:55 pm

pain in the A$$ system...it already is LOL

Stormsfury · #30 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 7:12 pm

RNS wrote:pain in the A$$ system...it already is LOL

ROTFLMAO ... yes, KOW, and RNS ... I also get dibs on that and third the nomination ...

#31 Postby **RNS** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 7:19 pm

you got it dude LOL

#32 Postby **RNS** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 7:29 pm

another thing that we are lacking in most locations that i would have like dto see going into this is some snowcover across the lower hudson valley and northeast pennsylvania...

there is some snowcover present along the western slopes of the blueridge and the laurel highlands...however we are lacking east of the mountains. should we have at least SOME snowcover going into this event the CAD would have a harder time getting displaced...thus more potential for a snow event vs mixed precipitation or rain.

Stormsfury · #33 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 7:51 pm

Have you seen Day 6/7 EURO yet?

Day 7 850mb RH

Day 7 850mb Temperatures

Day 7 500mb Heights

500mb Absolute Vorticity

Hmmm ...

#34 Postby **RNS** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 7:59 pm

Yep...the EC is chatching on to the CAD...and the GFS is once again trailing. i dont think theres really any question of track...as it should be a coastal system. the only thing thats different here is the tilt of the trough...which is positive as compared to negatively tilted in previous runs of the GFS.

the fact that the trough has a positive tilt would allow for more of a northeast track further away from the coast...thus has a big hit on the major cities. i suspect the GFS run at 0z will reflect this.

furthermore...the dry slot punching northward associated with the H5 vorticity maximum looks to stay offshore which could prolong the precipitation.

so once again we wait for the pain in the A$$ GFS...

Stormsfury · #35 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 8:01 pm

RNS wrote:Yep...the EC is chatching on to the CAD...and the GFS is once again trailing. i dont think theres really any question of track...as it should be a coastal system. the only thing thats different here is the tilt of the trough...which is positive as compared to negatively tilted in previous runs of the GFS.

the fact that the trough has a positive tilt would allow for more of a northeast track further away from the coast...thus has a big hit on the major cities. i suspect the GFS run at 0z will reflect this.

furthermore...the dry slot punching northward associated with the H5 vorticity maximum looks to stay offshore which could prolong the precipitation.

so once again we wait for the pain in the A$$ GFS...

I agree that the 0z GFS SHOULD reflect this, but then again, it's a pain in the @$$ in the MR, isn't it? LOL ... Anyway, I think tomorrow's EURO just might bring the low a little further southward ... (just a little) ...

SF

Colin · #36 Postby **Colin** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 9:18 pm

I'm smack dab in the Lehigh Valley, and I'm READY baby!!!!

#37 Postby **RNS** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 9:26 pm

you/d better be colin...

WEATHER53 · #38 Postby **WEATHER53** » Sun Nov 30, 2003 9:53 pm

Any model prediction of a trough or cut off or establishment of a coastal low will be wrong. There is nothing in the cards to cease this basic zonal flow, no stj, nothing. It will be chilly in DC area this week but the basic placement of the cold air is too far east and the best scenario is a low from tennessee valley moving almost due east and off VA/NC coastal border and directly out to sea. This could produce 1-2" in the cold sector north of the path. It is just as likely that the up or west of applchn trend continues and there is not going to be any coastal storm.

Big Snowstorm Unlikely for the East Coast Friday-Saturday

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