Texas Winter 2025-2026

[Brent]

Calmeth downeth. It’s early December. Trust me on this: it’s coming.

Yup just saw another post about the highest snow cover in 20 years

Enjoy the lull coming up

Brent, the trough is too far east, even for most of the east coast. I do hope that changes eventually with a little further west in time

I'm sure it will eventually. I think I remember them always being favored early on anyway....not sure this is even news. There will be a southeast ridge at some point.

It's why we have so much more winter later most years. Quote me if we don't lol

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Yup just saw another post about the highest snow cover in 20 years

Enjoy the lull coming up

Brent, the trough is too far east, even for most of the east coast. I do hope that changes eventually with a little further west in time

I'm sure it will eventually. I think I remember them always being favored early on anyway....not sure this is even news. There will be a southeast ridge at some point.

It's why we have so much more winter later most years. Quote me if we don't lol

If this winter is front loaded, then I hope we get opportunity soon especially if it flips warm later, especially with niñas

[Ntxw]

Models have been trending colder for the 7 day period. Still a GL aimed direction but the runs have been trying to expand back towards the front range some. -WPO.

[Stratton23]

Yeah that - WPO is insane and it looks to not want to go even close to positive anytime remotely soon, what i also find interesting and unusual is now models are forecasting the MJO to potentially stall in phase 8 through mid January, i dont think i can recall the last time ive seen models forecast the mjo staying in place in a certain phase for that long of a time

[Ntxw]

Yeah that - WPO is insane and it looks to not want to go even close to positive anytime remotely soon, what i also find interesting and unusual is now models are forecasting the MJO to potentially stall in phase 8 through mid January, i dont think i can recall the last time ive seen models forecast the mjo staying in place in a certain phase for that long of a time

I do think we need the mjo to move forward because forcing moving east in the tropics, retracts the mid latitude jets. Stall in 8 keeps the flow east. If we had a good stj then it's a different story.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw it honestly look like a mess to me when looking at the MJO progression on the models, it unfortunately looks like it might stall in 8, then go into the null phase and potentially remerge in phase 7 again, really hope that does not happen, but then again these maps do change daily quite a bit, so hopefully we dont see that stall

[Brent]

I don't like how dry it is but that's a lot of cold air nearby on the GFS

I'm worried even if we dump the Arctic it's gonna be dry. But aren't we supposed to get the cold first and then worry about precip

[Stratton23]

That GFS run had some decent cold shots for texas despite a + PNA showing up