Analogs being miss used (ESPECIALLY 79-80!!)

[Guest]

Well as we fast approach winter it seems the rush to judgement is on with how this winter will somehow match or be simular in some way to a winer of past.............................If anything i hope people on this site learn is that years such as this one we have NO REAL ANALOG to use meaning you cant say this winter will be like 79/80 or 60/61 or 93/94 or even 61/62......................Im almost certain if a few people see this i would get sand blasted for this mainly because they are either snow set (meaning they like the analog that gives thier backyard the most snow) or B trying to base everything on a certain person who has a good track record (BUT not perfect either especially in a year like this)..................My best advise is to look back at trends and such that can relate to the year we are having with the main factors such as the QBO, ENSO, SUN ACTIVITY, ETC...................Kinda what i did when i did my winter outlook...............Yes i even took into account analogs but more or less took the best natches i could find and blended them together along with i said above........................The BIG THING which i have notice alot of people doing is ignoriing what happend elsewhere across the USA/world/oceans in relation to thier favorite analog...................That there is a huge mistake to do..................As seen by my winter outlook and other notable people such as HM (Occasinal Chatroom chatter) and Don (Still dont agree with the low snow totals but as well i know he is gonna update those possibly sometime in Nov......... (My Snowfall for cities) i expect thing's to be somwhat spread out mainly from the plains east and yes i didnt just use my areas past climo to get this................BTW im gonna add more cities (Below average snow) shortly.......................

Sum it up i feel certain people are in for a possible let down if they are just soley basing thier winter outlooks on any particular analog year....................The same goes for those who believe these outlooks as well...................

Either way feel free to add your thoughts to this even if you disagree (Just state why you do in your OWN thoughts please and not someone elses)........................

[LehighValleyForcaster]

King,

In response to Brandons post I placed my thoughts and comments in the up coming winter months.

Thought you might be interested since it has to do with what you were requesting here.

_______________________________________________________________________________________________

Brandon,

You are correct when you said it will be difficult to forcast events coming up.

As with the Lehigh Valley, we will begin November with warmer temps then normal and the possibilty of any snow falling here is near 0 percent for at least the first week or two.

We have experianced some cold waves here but the cold air did not stay with us.

Day time temps have been up there and nights have not really been that cold for this time of the year.

We have had a little sleet and snow flurries this past week but did not last long.

This is telling me that winter is trying to move into our region but having a very difficult time in doing so.

The El Ninio has a big part in this as for other regions as well.

Not sure yet what lies ahead for all of us but it does not look that good yet.

Things can change but time will tell.

I don't think it will be like it was last year but we probably will see some snow. I am not too sure about anything yet.

Sometimes I feel we will have a late start with winter and an early spring. That's what I feel today but tomorrow I may have a different feeling.

Forecasting will be difficult as you said and I agree with you 100%.

Right now anything can happen but so far I see only warmer conditions for this winter. I am not saying summer like conditions but warm enough to keep snow from falling or sticking and staying around for awhile.

I have seen conditions like this several times before.

That's all I have to say at this time.

[Guest]

Thanks LVF for sharing your thoughts here................As most are saying it is gonna be a somewhat challenging winter for sure..................There is small hints beeing made as of late which right now is supporting my winter outlook....................I should have worded my earlier post or added that some could be greatly suprised as well with what this winter may have instore for the USA...........................As i have seen recently elsewhere it seems im getting more support for my winter outlook by other winter outlooks im seeing even as late as yesterday (BTW very suprised by the most recent one which i will get into later).....................

Brandons outlook is pretty much on par with mine with the only exception of the latter part of winter which he indicates that El'Nino (BTW should be in a weak faze by then) will over take our winter pattern up this way which IMO beeing it will be in a weak faze i doubt will happen (As far as his temps/snow show) i would expect with a weak El'Nino that all it should manage to do as was the case last winter will be to add some extra juice to the late winter storms but not extra warmth which is more common with stronger El'Nino's unless you live in the SW US....................Either way well thought out Brandon........................

[WEATHER53]

Analogs are The Name of the game for seasonal forecasting, just have to have the ability to recall and somewhat of a feel for weighting the importance of events. 79 has profound analog similarities, a huge Feb snowstorm, a cool wet summer, an important tropical impact on mid atlantic in Sept, and some minor analogs such as very cool early Oct. The mistake people make is assessing things as identical or near identical instead of comparative. Also the business about QBO and half dozen other issues misses the point in that near identical weather can ocur with utterly differing sets ups of NAO, QBO, PDO, etc. About the only thing to hang you hat on as a foundation is el nino/la nina, otherwise comparative analogs and resultant historical weather will get you to the winners circle

[Stormsfury]

Analogs are The Name of the game for seasonal forecasting, just have to have the ability to recall and somewhat of a feel for weighting the importance of events. 79 has profound analog similarities, a huge Feb snowstorm, a cool wet summer, an important tropical impact on mid atlantic in Sept, and some minor analogs such as very cool early Oct. The mistake people make is assessing things as identical or near identical instead of comparative. Also the business about QBO and half dozen other issues misses the point in that near identical weather can ocur with utterly differing sets ups of NAO, QBO, PDO, etc. About the only thing to hang you hat on as a foundation is el nino/la nina, otherwise comparative analogs and resultant historical weather will get you to the winners circle

Don't forget the tropical correlation with a subtropical storm in Late October in the Central Atlantic and the current double barrel system (remnants of Nicholas around a larger subtropical looking low right now).

[Guest]

Well figured i would share something for a few to see which as well i will be adding more places to this as well????

So you say 1979 is the name of the game huh???? Have a look at the little link below which will take you to the 1979 wholes year obs for Philadelphia, PA....................................Let me know your thoughts on it after reading it from Jan 1 1979 to Dec 31, 1979.......................

BTW 53 i do know about and as well use analogs just not to the degree of some...........................

Anyways have a look............http://www.fi.edu/weather/data2/1979.txt