The Official North Ga Winter 03-04 Predictions Thread

[GaWxDude]

This is the Official North Ga Winter 03-04 Predictions Thread.

I think the majority of the ppl on this board are from the North and dont think North Ga deserves or needs this sort of a post, BUT, oh well. I wanna know what ppl think cause i'm desperate for a storm this winter, hehe.

So anyway, I'm thinking we're overdue for a significant snow and/or icestorm.

What do all you North Georgians think?

[Mr Bob]

I am going for one event in early February....1-3" across the city and at HArtsfield....2-4" across the northern suburbs....3-6" in Se TN and NW GA. This is a guess based on analogs...nothing more.

[GAStorm]

I really think we are overdue, but I'm not sure how much we might get. It could be a good amount, or light amounts in separate storms. Last year I kept thinking we would finally get some snow, and it ended up going just to our north. Regardless of what happens this year, I will find the snow even if it means driving to the mountains!

[Stormsfury]

If this last storm system was any hint of GOM low activity, perfect timing of cold air and a GOM spinup during the winter could possibly make many snowlovers in the Southland very happy.

SF

[StormCrazyIowan]

LOL GAStorm!! You post as many topics about GA as you want! I live in IOWA, I feel your pain!!

[ColdFront77]

I think the majority of the ppl on this board are from the North and dont think North Ga deserves or needs this sort of a post, BUT, oh well.

27.8% of those that have 100 posts or more (144 members) live in Florida [26] and Texas [14].

[StormCrazyIowan]

3 members live in Iowa, don't know the percentage, but it is squat!! And I am the only regular poster of the 3!! Does that stop me from posting like crazy about Iowa, heck no!!

[ColdFront77]

I am letting GAStorm and others know the percentage of Storm2K members from the southern states, (excluding Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia to name a few).

[GAStorm]

LOL GAStorm!! You post as many topics about GA as you want! I live in IOWA, I feel your pain!!

LOL! You wouldn't know the pain us southerners go through tracking winter storms! Once winter gets going, I will post about other areas besides GA since there could be some big storms to talk about!

[GAStorm]

27.8% of those that have 100 posts or more (144 members) live in Florida [26] and Texas [14].

This board is definitely made up of people all over the US! That is certainly a good thing since there will be more weather to talk about!

[Stormsfury]

LOL GAStorm!! You post as many topics about GA as you want! I live in IOWA, I feel your pain!!

LOL! You wouldn't know the pain us southerners go through tracking winter storms! Once winter gets going, I will post about other areas besides GA since there could be some big storms to talk about!

GAstorm, I feel your pain, though it definitely makes winter storms easier to forecast since they aren't affecting my area.

[ColdFront77]

I will definitely be following this thread. Being a native of southeastern Massachusetts helps.

Storm2K originally started out as a tropical weather board apparently made the influx of members from Florida and Texas.

Having it opened up for not only tropical weather, but all weather in general and off-topic and a fun and games forum, it is wonderful to have members from various places across the United States and worldwide.

[StormCrazyIowan]

Ok, you guys may have trouble with winter storms, but I have trouble with ANY precip!!!!!! I swear before it gets to my area, it divides and goes directly to my north and south!!

[GAStorm]

GAstorm, I feel your pain, though it definitely makes winter storms easier to forecast since they aren't affecting my area.

I think your area may have some surprises this year SF! Like you said if the last storm is any indication, all it would take is some cold air!

[JetMaxx]

I hope I'm wrong....because no Georgia boy loves snow more than me -- but I honestly expect an overall mild winter....few arctic outbreaks and little or no snow/ ice in the Atlanta metro area. I'm actually more concerned about above normal tornado activity in January and February across the deep south....it's just a hunch, and memories of past winter seasons following similar unusually cool and wet summers in this area (i.e.- 1974-75, 1994-95).

The summer of 1974 was very mild and stormy...very wet. It was followed by a stormy winter...but mild and stormy. We had tornado watches on New Years Eve, and a killer tornado outbreak across the southeast on January 10th, 1975...and several in February 1975 (2/18 & 2/23).

Winter 1994-95 (following a cool, very wetsummer in which it never topped 90° in D'ville) wasn't as deadly tornado-wise...but there were several significant severe wx outbreaks in February/ early March. The only wintery precip I recall was some unexpected sleet/ freezing drizzle on a Sunday morning that caused traffic accident havoc on the interstates, especially down around the Atlanta airport...cars and Marta buses sliding all over the place.

We'll see....my theory certainly isn't based any scientific evidence. The fact we are ending October with no temps below 42° in this area, and forecasts of well-above normal temps into mid-November across Atlanta (based on the 18z GFS both yesterday and today) don't load me with encouragement (I keep seeing posts about 1979-80 being an analog tp 2003-04....but that was a COLD October....snow fell in Baltimore during the World Series; and freezing temps were recorded in this area....much colder than October 2003 in metro Atlanta).

[Stormsfury]

I hope I'm wrong....because no Georgia boy loves snow more than me -- but I honestly expect an overall mild winter....few arctic outbreaks and little or no snow/ ice in the Atlanta metro area. I'm actually more concerned about above normal tornado activity in January and February across the deep south....it's just a hunch, and memories of past winter seasons following similar unusually cool and wet summers in this area (i.e.- 1974-75, 1994-95).

The summer of 1974 was very mild and stormy...very wet. It was followed by a stormy winter...but mild and stormy. We had tornado watches on New Years Eve, and a killer tornado outbreak across the southeast on January 10th, 1975...and several in February 1975 (2/18 & 2/23).

Winter 1994-95 (following a cool, very wetsummer in which it never topped 90° in D'ville) wasn't as deadly tornado-wise...but there were several significant severe wx outbreaks in February/ early March. The only wintery precip I recall was some unexpected sleet/ freezing drizzle on a Sunday morning that caused traffic accident havoc on the interstates, especially down around the Atlanta airport...cars and Marta buses sliding all over the place.

We'll see....my theory certainly isn't based any scientific evidence. The fact we are ending October with no temps below 40° in this area, and forecasts of well-above normal temps into mid-November across Atlanta (based on the 18z GFS both yesterday and today) don't encourage me (I keep seeing posts about 1979-80 being an analog....but that was a COLD October....snow fell in Baltimore during the World Series; and freezing temps were recorded in this area....totally different than October 2003).

Which also could lead me to believe that the timing of the cold air could be quite interesting once December rolls around ... Just because October hasn't been very cold at all, and looking like the beginning of November as well isn't concerning me for now. I'm not basing this on anything but pure speculation right now, but a prolonged warm spell and sometimes one with some record heat can tend to lead to record cold downstream in the future. To manufacture a steady supply of warmth (generally from a stagnant pattern, means somewhere else upstream, cold, and sometimes record cold is building behind. The longer that cold air upstream builds and based on the path when it comes down could make things quite interesting.

SF

[JetMaxx]

That's also a possibility Mike....as old timers here say...

"If it stays warm until Christmas, lookout after New Years -- because the bottom will fall out" :o

I well remember Christmas Day 1982...a balmy 72° and me delivering the weekly security guards payroll checks to LaGrange and Peachtree City wearing short sleeves with the windows down in my company car....then we had several inches of snow in January, more accumilating snow in mid-February, and 7" on March 24th :o (Christmas Day 1984 and 1987 were quite similar, with a turn to very cold and wintery weather in January).

[GAStorm]

Perry,

I can definitely see how there will be an increased threat of tornadoes early on. The warm air predicted the next few weeks could cause some severe weather in many places.

As far as winter goes, SF made a good point about the massive amount of cold air building to the north. I would expect to see some of that here, and would not be surprised if it were colder than the arctic outbreaks last year. It's all about the timing so we will just have to wait and see!