Mr Bob wrote:The 12z GFS continues to support some severe weather from the SE(AL, GA) into the Carolina Coastal Plain from Sunday into Monday....Also, as the primary low occludes back into the Great Lakes, notice that nice little lake enhancement over the Chicago metro area (132 Hour GFS)...A little early in the season for snow?...yes, but if it were only two or three weeks later it would be very interesting...
The GFSx also with the ECMWF indicates quite a bit of moisture transport into the Coastal Plain of South Carolina so thunderstorms remain quite a good possibility. The one main interest is IF there's any resemblance of an in-situ wedge inland just enough to stabilize the atmosphere from producing severe wx, but at the same time, the setup is looking a little more ominous with time.
The operational GFS spins quite a low in response to a strong vort lobe diving SSEward thru the Great Plains and taking the deepening low northward. (Looking tropicalwise at Nicholas and the Caribbean, I noticed the GFDL looks strikingly similar to the GFS in regards to the Eastern US Storm - I wonder why? ..LOL..)
Based solely on the progged tracks of the model guidance at this time, it looks that any low level cold air (wedging) would quickly be replaced with a very strong southerly flow out ahead of the storm system and quite possibly have a chance of generating some strong convection even into the Mid-Atlantic Region.
SF