Another warm winter forecast

[MCWX]

http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?

Updated AccuWeather.com Winter Forecast
Posted 2007-11-13
JOE BASTARDI'S UPDATED ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST
"The AccuWeather.com long-range center continues to drive home the point that a very warm winter is on the way for much of the nation, especially east of the Rockies - a forecast given to Joe Bastardi Energy Pro™ and private clients at the start of summer..."

Seems as if many are forecasting a mild winter. One wonders if most are using the same methodology generally. Is this simply looking back at past strong ENSO cases and looking for consistent anomalies from those "analog years"? If so, I would not be shocked, in fact quite expecting it, that we will see forecast busts as large as we saw in the winter of 2001-02, except in the opposite direction.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes, JB does think it will be overall a mild winter (in the eastern 2/3rds of the country). However, I should note that he also thinks the end of November and the beginning of December could be quite cold (possibly lasting as long as Christmas). After this colder period though, he thinks the overall warm pattern will build in and hold starting in about 4-6 weeks.

[MCWX]

Yes, JB does think it will be overall a mild winter (in the eastern 2/3rds of the country). However, I should note that he also thinks the end of November and the beginning of December could be quite cold (possibly lasting as long as Christmas). After this colder period though, he thinks the overall warm pattern will build in and hold starting in about 4-6 weeks.

I see, I think. So November is to remain cold and the start of December is cold which you indicate he thinks could potentially last to xmas, then the warm pattern will set in. Sounds like he thinks Nov will continue cold and he is not so sure about December? So the warm pattern could set in anywhere from Dec 7th to Dec 25th? Not following completely. He expects anywhere from early to late December through Feb will be milder than normal in the means? The map they show looks incredibly warm and his/their comments about a comparison 2001-02 winter is quite bold.

Often ENSO dominated patterns do establish/reveal their base states in late Dec/early Jan often because of tropical convective forcing in the Pacific. It shall be interesting to see if the SE ridge many are expecting to dominate and become amplified actually leads to a warm winter in places like ORD/CVG/NYC. It will be interesting to see how the pattern unfolds and how quickly snow cover gets established. I think these warm winter forecasts will find themselves in trouble soon enough and I am quite confident that comparisons to 2001-02 will have a tough time verifying. But hey, trends and many La Nina composites strongly suggest a warm winter. Then again, the rather impressive progged signal of the northern annular mode which looks to be forced so early in the season from below not above might make some wonder if this winter is really going to be warm or something else.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes, JB does think it will be overall a mild winter (in the eastern 2/3rds of the country). However, I should note that he also thinks the end of November and the beginning of December could be quite cold (possibly lasting as long as Christmas). After this colder period though, he thinks the overall warm pattern will build in and hold starting in about 4-6 weeks.

I see, I think. So November is to remain cold and the start of December is cold which you indicate he thinks could potentially last to xmas, then the warm pattern will set in. Sounds like he thinks Nov will continue cold and he is not so sure about December? So the warm pattern could set in anywhere from Dec 7th to Dec 25th? Not following completely. He expects anywhere from early to late December through Feb will be milder than normal in the means? The map they show looks incredibly warm and his/their comments about a comparison 2001-02 winter is quite bold.

Often ENSO dominated patterns do establish/reveal their base states in late Dec/early Jan often because of tropical convective forcing in the Pacific. It shall be interesting to see if the SE ridge many are expecting to dominate and become amplified actually leads to a warm winter in places like ORD/CVG/NYC. It will be interesting to see how the pattern unfolds and how quickly snow cover gets established. I think these warm winter forecasts will find themselves in trouble soon enough and I am quite confident that comparisons to 2001-02 will have a tough time verifying. But hey, trends and many La Nina composites strongly suggest a warm winter. Then again, the rather impressive progged signal of the northern annular mode which looks to be forced so early in the season from below not above might make some wonder if this winter is really going to be warm or something else.

Yes, according to what I have been reading on his blogs and watching on his videos, he thinks that we will start to enter a chilly (and "wild") pattern around Thanksgiving. This pattern should last into December, but eventually begin to fade by mid to late month. January through February then look to be very warm for the the eastern 2/3rds of the United States with arctic intrusions becoming rare.

As you pointed out though, there are still some questions and nothing is definite just yet. It will be very interesting to see how well JB and other's forecasts actually play out...

[RL3AO]

I WANT SNOW! Only 1 of the last 5 winters have been normal in Minnesota in terms of snowfall (54 inches). 3 of the last 5 have been below 35 inches. All I want is a real Minnesota winter, but I doubt I will get it.

[cheezyWXguy]

I WANT SNOW! Only 1 of the last 5 winters have been normal in Minnesota in terms of snowfall (54 inches). 3 of the last 5 have been below 35 inches. All I want is a real Minnesota winter, but I doubt I will get it.

Divide the 35 inches you got every year by ten and thats what we get...

[vbhoutex]

I WANT SNOW! Only 1 of the last 5 winters have been normal in Minnesota in terms of snowfall (54 inches). 3 of the last 5 have been below 35 inches. All I want is a real Minnesota winter, but I doubt I will get it.

Divide the 35 inches you got every year by ten and thats what we get...

Divide it by ten again and that is what we get!!

[jasons2k]

Typical La Nina, what more is else there to say? Strange that there aren't all the analogs listed. Maybe that's for the pay site only?

[Cookiely]

I would be thrilled to get just one inch.

[MGC]

Well, we did get sleet here on the MGC this past April and who could forget the Christmas 04 snow. I'd like to see a little snow this winter down here on the coast. Perhaps it could hide the remaining devestation left over from Katrina for a while.....MGC

[cheezyWXguy]

I WANT SNOW! Only 1 of the last 5 winters have been normal in Minnesota in terms of snowfall (54 inches). 3 of the last 5 have been below 35 inches. All I want is a real Minnesota winter, but I doubt I will get it.

Divide the 35 inches you got every year by ten and thats what we get...

Divide it by ten again and that is what we get!!

Yeah but yall got the Xmas 04 storm, where there was over a foot from that storm down there...I only got 2 inches out of it, and I dont think Ive ever seen a TX snowstorm over 4 inches...

[Squarethecircle]

Ack, not another year of this. Last year was bad enough; we had cold temperatures, but no snow, and now it's going to be warm (although there have been a few days (a few meaning 'one') so far that I have given about a 10 percent of having a light flurry)! You people up in New England and the Canada border have all the fun! Except down here when we get, like, an inch of snow, school's out. So all is fair.