Above Normal SSTs off South FL and Southern GOM, No Winter

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Jan 18, 2007 3:23 pm

I'm getting a tad worried about hurricane season 2007 -- hopefully some strong fronts push through in February and March or else SSTs will be WAY above normal going into June when hurricane season begins:
:eek:

Any cold fronts on the horizon?

Also check out the anomolies off the NE US Coast! :eek:

HURRICANELONNY · #2 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Thu Jan 18, 2007 4:24 pm

Somewhat above. But that could change with some upwelling from a strong High pressure or a low. Have to wait and see if this is a trend or just a phase. 8-)

cpdaman · #3 Postby **cpdaman** » Thu Jan 18, 2007 6:10 pm

didn't we learn last year that shear and ull's play the much bigger part the water will always be warm enough to support hurricane's in hurricane season down here

Aquawind · #4 Postby **Aquawind** » Thu Jan 18, 2007 6:16 pm

Were not even a month into Winter. Yes we will have plenty of Fropas.. The Anomalies can change pretty quickly with plenty of time for that to happen. Yeah it's warm..no biggie at this point. My interest will rise in 3 months when the sun's angle will really start having an impact that will last through the hurricane season.

pawxguy · #5 Postby **pawxguy** » Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:46 pm

A daily record max for SST was achieved last week off the DelMarVa.

#6 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Thu Jan 18, 2007 9:52 pm

pawxguy wrote:A daily record max for SST was achieved last week off the DelMarVa.

wow, i cant be suprised by this, because of the maps but im sure its not the last to come.

Kennethb · #7 Postby **Kennethb** » Thu Jan 18, 2007 10:22 pm

Generally SSTs will average out, but I am more concerned about the waning of the El Nino and how that will potentially allow more storms.

cpdaman · #8 Postby **cpdaman** » Fri Jan 19, 2007 7:49 am

From Melbourne NWS Disc:

DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THU. SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN IS EXPECTED BY THU NIGHT AND BEYOND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED IN A POSITIVE PNA PATTERN.

Patrick99 · #9 Postby **Patrick99** » Fri Jan 19, 2007 1:40 pm

I was wondering how the warm waters were affecting the already-warm winter. Given that we are surrounded by all this warm water that hasn't really cooled off much, doesn't that in itself make it more difficult for any prolonged cool periods? Won't any cool air mass modify even quicker than normal?

HURRICANELONNY · #10 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Fri Jan 19, 2007 3:05 pm

It depends on the direction of the wind. NNW winds would tend to have less time over the Gulf water while NNE would have more time over water. :eek:

cpdaman · #11 Postby **cpdaman** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:46 pm

i hope late next weekend and arctic blast comes down and sends temps down into the upper 20's in WP beach and then i hope the strong nw winds cause lake okeechobee to send me (wellington, FL) some lake effect snow just enough for sledding

Janie2006 · #12 Postby **Janie2006** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 4:57 pm

Patrick99 wrote:I was wondering how the warm waters were affecting the already-warm winter. Given that we are surrounded by all this warm water that hasn't really cooled off much, doesn't that in itself make it more difficult for any prolonged cool periods? Won't any cool air mass modify even quicker than normal?

You also have to take the speed of the air mass into account. If it is relatively slow, it has time to modify.....if not, it may stay fairly cold upon arrival. Also, look for snowpack to the north, as a good snowpack will also prevent the air mass from modifying very rapidly.

#13 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 5:44 pm

Winter cancel... winter cancel... I don't know how many more threads of this I am going to read before I really cancel winter myself (since I have that power). :lol:

HURRICANELONNY · #14 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Sat Jan 20, 2007 6:17 pm

Winter cancel for the West. Time for the east. :eek:

#15 Postby **TampaFl** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:13 am

You also have to take the speed of the air mass into account. If it is relatively slow, it has time to modify.....if not, it may stay fairly cold upon arrival. Also, look for snowpack to the north, as a good snowpack will also prevent the air mass from modifying very rapidly.[/quote]

Not alot of snow cover over the eastern half of the US. All of it is out west. Alot of snow will have to fall over the east to have any impact on temps here in Florida (IMHO)

http://pro.accuweather.com/adcbin/profe ... xcode=UC24

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #16 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:29 am

It's very windy this morning here on the western side of Tampa Bay.
Winds are SE at 20 mph with gusts to 28 mph at my house very close to the Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #17 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:32 am

Wow! It's getting Really Windy!
SE 24 mph at my house, Gusts to 34 mph!

#18 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Jan 21, 2007 10:44 am

feels almost like a seabreeze.

Above Normal SSTs off South FL and Southern GOM, No Winter

Above Normal SSTs off South FL and Southern GOM, No Winter

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