AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
228 PM EST SUN DEC 24 2006
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A MAJOR STORM IS ON
TRACK TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN US MON AND TUE. MAIN AFFECTS
ON EASTERN NC WILL HEAVY RAINS...STRONG COASTAL WINDS...AND
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.
WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE GFS CAMP ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE STORM. AMPLIFIED SPLIT FLOW
JET WILL PHASE ON MON LEADING TO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS AS THE MAIN
SFC LOW TRACKS RAPIDLY INTO OHIO VALLEY. A SECONDARY TRIPLE POINT
LOW IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE NC PIEDMONT MON AFTERNOON AND MOVE
OFF THE MID ATLC COAST MON NIGHT. STRONG INFLOW OF MOIST INTO
STRONG WAA PATTERN WILL LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL
AROUND DAWN CHRISTMAS. DRY LOW LEVELS MAY INITIALLY LIMIT PCPN
AMOUNTS EARLY BUT BY AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SATURATED
AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL BE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL THE AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE 06Z TUE WHICH WILL
LEAD TO SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. DEEP MOIST PROFILES
PRODUCE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THUS LIKELY LIMITING SVR
THREAT...AS EVIDENCED BY NAM/GFS LI FORECAST WHICH KEEPS NEGATIVE
VALUES CONFINED TO THE COAST SOUTH OF HSE. HOWEVER...KINEMATICS
ARE STRONG AS IS THE UPPER FORCING WHICH CAN OVERCOME THE LACK OF
INSTAB. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY CELLS THAT HAVE LTG MON.
SFC WIND FORECASTS ARE BORDERLINE FOR WIND ADVISORY...BUT 50 KT
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK COULD MIX DOWN IN HEAVY SHOWERS SO I WILL
ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY OUTER BANKS FOR MON AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE DAWN TUE AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN BUT
COLD POOL ALOFT AND SHORTWAVE LATE TUE/TUE EVENING COULD TOUCH OFF
A FEW RAIN OR EVEN SNOW SHOWERS AS ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MARGINALLY
COLD FOR SNOW. WARM GROUND AND SFC TEMPERATURES WILL PREVENT ANY
SLICK SPOTS FROM FORMING IF SNOW SHOWERS MATERIALIZE.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS STRONG POST FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS THOUGH SO
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING A MINOR SOUND SIDE EVENT ALONG HATTERAS
ISLAND WITH WATER LEVELS 2-3 FT ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH PRES WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON
WED.
Did Someone Say Snow For Eastern NC???
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- brunota2003
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Did Someone Say Snow For Eastern NC???
Well...according to our latest discussion, not only are we forcasted to get severe weather, but even the possibly of...you guessed it, SNOW!
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- Tstormwatcher
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