HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK Issued for Maine

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
257 AM EST TUE NOV 28 2006

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-291200-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
257 AM EST TUE NOV 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LIGHT MIXED SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ARRIVE TO CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHERN MAINE WILL CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR ARRIVES. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AFTERWARDS...A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY STALL OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST
MAY REDEVELOP ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON SATURDAY. DEPENDING ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT FREEZING OR FROZEN
PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PLEASE MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST TRENDS ON
THIS POTENTIAL EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

$$


Source: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... er+Outlook

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 282036
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 PM EST TUE NOV 28 2006

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AS
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
CROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WARMER AIR WITH CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE AND STALL
SOUTH OF THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THIS STALLED
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE AREA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE AS INVERSION ABOVE
THE CLOUD DECK WILL KEEP CLOUDS FROM LIFTING DURING THE DAY. FEEL
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. STILL SOME MAJOR DISAGREEMENT FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. PRIMARILY FOLLOWED THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH PUSHES COLD
FRONT WITH RAIN THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE
COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. LOW WILL THEN TRACK ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
WITH A COMPROMISE POSITION BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOMEWHERE IN
THE GULF OF MAINE. PRECIPITATION WILL START FRIDAY NIGHT AND AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL FALL SOMEWHERE
THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. OPEN WAVE ALOFT WILL ALLOW STORM TO QUICKLY
MOVE THROUGH THE GULF ON FRIDAY NIGHT SO SPEED OF SYSTEM WILL
PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT DUMP IN OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME BEST
GUESS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE 4 TO 7 INCHES SOMEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL MAINE BUT STILL ALOT OF TIME FOR THINGS TO
CHANGE.

Source: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/CAR/AFDCAR

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
435 AM EST WED NOV 29 2006

ANZ050-MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032-300945-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT ME TO STONINGTON ME OUT 25 NM-
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN PENOBSCOT-SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-CENTRAL PENOBSCOT-SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT-
INTERIOR HANCOCK-CENTRAL WASHINGTON-COASTAL HANCOCK-
COASTAL WASHINGTON-SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS-NORTHERN WASHINGTON-
435 AM EST WED NOV 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.

..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE FRONT...WHICH WILL SEPARATE MUCH COLDER
SEMI-ARCTIC AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA FROM MARITIME TROPICAL AIR FROM
THE ATLANTIC...WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MORE CONFIDENCE WITH LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST ON FRI
TO THE GULF OF MAINE NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
UP THE BAY OF FUNDY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK COULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER NORTHERN MAINE WITH THE
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE RAIN AND SNOW SOME WHERE OVER EAST
CENTRAL MAINE. IF MODEL GUIDANCE CONFIRMS THE APPROXIMATE POSITION
OF THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THIS EVENT WOULD WARRANT
A WINTER STORM WATCH AT LEAST OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION IN THE APPROXIMATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TIME FRAME.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER WINTERY PRECIPITATION REPORTS WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING
FROM NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SPOTTERS SHOULD
MONITOR FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL WEEKEND STORM.


Source: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... er+Outlook