March 21-22, 2006 Event: Initial Estimates

[donsutherland1]

At this time, my thinking remains essentially as it had been for some time that this storm could produce a swath of measureable snow, particularly in such areas as interior Virginia, West Virginia, parts of Maryland, and parts of Ohio and Pennsylvania. This would likely include such cities as Columbus, Frederick, Hagerstown, Baltimore, Washington, DC, and possibly Philadelphia. Richmond could see rain end as snow with perhaps some minor accumulations.

This storm should move offshore near the Virginia-North Carolina border and head east-northeastward out-to-sea. It could gradually add a more northerly component to its trajectory. I still remain a little concerned about a track somewhat farther to the north as hinted at by the ensemble means.



However, the good continuity in the GFS/ECMWF and recent southward trend in the NAM leads me to discount that possibility for now.

Initial Estimates:
Baltimore: 2" or less
Columbus: 2"-4"
Hagerstown: 1"-3"
Indianapolis: 3"-7"
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Richmond: 1" or less
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 1"-3"
...IAD: 2"-4"

[donsutherland1]

After looking at this morning's guidance, it is possible that a little more snow might fall than I initially expect in the Washington, DC area. However, I want to wait for another round of guidance before adjusting DCA's figure. Overall, the GFS is a little wetter and little further north with its precipitation. This trend will likely make little difference for Philadephia and northward.

With the GFS ending is "drying" trend for Indianapolis, I'm more confident of a greater accumulation there. However, I'm still not inclined to embrace the NAM's excessive qpf idea.

Revised Estimates:
Baltimore: 2" or less
Columbus: 2"-5"
Hagerstown: 1"-3"
Indianapolis: 5"-10"
Philadelphia: 1" or less
Richmond: 1" or less
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 1"-3"
...IAD: 2"-5"

[terstorm1012]

Local mets here were all over some of the model runs this weekend, telling people a blizzard was coming and all. Now they're back to "snow showers, maybe an inch."

Your forecast seems far more reasonable then what I saw going on out there this weekend.

[WindRunner]

None of the local mets in DC (or even the NWS) are calling for more than 2" in the metro areas, and 1-3" out west of the Blue Ridge. At this point though, I'm not really sure who to go with, as Don's is certainly reasonable QPF-wise if the storm shifts slightly northward, though that will most likely bring a greater chance of sleet during the afternoon hours for the DC area, but probably not much of a change p-type wise for Balt. This is going to be an interesting storm to say the least.

[lester]

None of the local mets in DC (or even the NWS) are calling for more than 2" in the metro areas, and 1-3" out west of the Blue Ridge. At this point though, I'm not really sure who to go with, as Don's is certainly reasonable QPF-wise if the storm shifts slightly northward, though that will most likely bring a greater chance of sleet during the afternoon hours for the DC area, but probably not much of a change p-type wise for Balt. This is going to be an interesting storm to say the least.

agreed

[donsutherland1]

Verification:

From 3/19/2006 10:30 pm:
Baltimore: 2" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Columbus: 2"-4"; Actual: 0.6"; Error: 1.4"
Hagerstown: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
Indianapolis: 3"-7"; Actual: 5.4"; Within range
Philadelphia: 1" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Richmond: 1" or less; Actual: 0.9"; Within range
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
...IAD: 2"-4"; Actual: Trace; Error: 2.0"

From 3/20/2006 12:30 pm:
Baltimore: 2" or less; Actual: Trace; Within range
Columbus: 2"-5"; Actual: 0.6"; Error: 1.4"
Hagerstown: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
Indianapolis: 5"-10"; Actual: 5.4"; Within range
Philadelphia: 1" or less; Actual: None; Within range
Richmond: 1" or less; Actual: 0.9"; Within range
Washington, DC:
...DCA: 1"-3"; Actual: Trace; Error: 1.0"
...IAD: 2"-5"; Actual: Trace; Error: 2.0"

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Stick a fork in it Winter 2005 - 2006 (such as it was) is done :lol