Winter Weather for Houston?!

[KatDaddy]

Excerpt from this mornings HOU-GAL AFD:

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OVER THE CWA AND IF MOISTURE LINGERS LONG ENOUGH WE COULD HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO...

[Portastorm]

Excerpt from this mornings HOU-GAL AFD:

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OVER THE CWA AND IF MOISTURE LINGERS LONG ENOUGH WE COULD HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO...

I've been harping on this for a few days ... if the GFS is right, the thickness values are really low. I don't know about snow, but I know this is one of the deepest troughs I've seen roll through Texas in a long while.

[Air Force Met]

I've been harping on this for a few days ... if the GFS is right, the thickness values are really low. I don't know about snow, but I know this is one of the deepest troughs I've seen roll through Texas in a long while.

The thickness values are so low because of the deepness of the trough, not because the air is that cold. However, if the low was to hang around and pump in some dry air, you could get some evaporative cooling into the air column...maybe even enough to change it over in the extreme northern zones.

However, this looks to be a pretty progressive system. At 17/18Z the associated jet max is progged to already be past the 500mb trof axis.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

And what this will do is lift the trof out rather quickly. By 18/00z (which if any winter weather scenerio were to occur, you have to look at the energy lasting AFTER 18/06z or so...because that is when it could get cold enough in the northern zones)...the drying out is solid from the surface through 5000'. ALso, by 18/06Z...the vertical velocities are all downward at 850, 700 and 500 mb. Now...if the shortwave slows and comes in later...then so does the colder air...so what this shows is that when the showwave passes...there is no residual energy behind it....hence the drying.

Another thing the skew-T from that time seems to be showing is dry air from the sfc-850...and then from 800-600mb's. There seems to be a stratiform layer present (at least what the model sees) from about 5000-6500'. That will insulate somewhat but it's not enough to put down any precip....it appears to be horizontal moisture advection from the low. Sfc dewpoints during this time appear to be in the mid-20's with sfc temps near 40. So...pretty dry.

[WhiteShirt]

Excerpt from this mornings HOU-GAL AFD:

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OVER THE CWA AND IF MOISTURE LINGERS LONG ENOUGH WE COULD HAVE TO
CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO...

When?