Rain and severe weather (followed by cold) in Texas?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest NWS forecasts are calling for over 50-60% chances of rain for Monday and Tuesday of next week! This may be very beneficial in fighting the drought....but the downside (or in my case upside...because I love it) is that there may be some severe weather too. I have heard some talk of a possible outbreak on Monday. Following this system we should see temps. fall to BELOW NORMAL for the first time in many days with highs struggling to reach the middle 50s on Tuesday and then struggling to hit 60 on Wednesday. Looks Interesting! Comment on your ideas concerning the situation below...

[Donwx]

Heres the latest discussion from the NWS in Corpus Christi note:intresting...LONG-TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPR LVL RDG WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF DAMPENING AND SHIFTING EAST ON SUN...AS TROF DEEPENS
ACROSS THE SW U.S. THIS NEXT SYS COULD BECOME A MAJOR PLAYER ON OUR
WX MON AFTN AND EVE...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH IT DEEPENS AND THE
MOISTURE RETURN THAT TAKES PLACE SUN AND MON AHEAD OF IT. GFS IS
MOST POTENT WITH IT AND HAS TRENDED FARTHEST SOUTH...WITH LOW IN
THE BASE OF THE TROF DIGGING THRU THE BIG BEND BY 12Z TUE. WILL BE
STICKING CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE 00Z/12Z GFS SOLNS. SHOULD SEE ENUF
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND AND UP INTO THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS TO PROVIDE ISOL TO SCT STREAMER TYPE RWS MON
MORNING. BUT REAL ACTION WILL GET GOING LATE MON AFTN AND INTO MON
NIGHT AS IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND OMEGA OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS PROG S TX TO BE IN RRQ OF 130-140KT H25
JET. STG 70-80 KT H5 JET WILL BE RIGHT OVERHEAD OF THE AREA AND SIG
COOLING WILL BE TAKING PLACE AT THIS LVL. ALL THIS WILL COINCIDING
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MON EVE. WAS
INITIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT WEAK LLVL WINDS VEERING SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MON AND MON EVE...BUT GIVEN IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS OVERSPREADING
THE AREA AND MOISTURE POOLING OF 1.3" OF PW ACROSS THE ERN
CWA...FEEL THIS WONT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR. HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO
50-60% ACROSS THE EAST TAPERING OFF TO 30% ACROSS THE WEST LATE MON
AFTN AND EVENING. WON`T GO QUITE AS HIGH AS 12Z GFS MOS (SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS) JUST YET. ALSO...IMPRESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
FORECASTED BY GFS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SO COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RAPID COOLING TAKING PLACE AT
H5.

THE FRONT IS FORECASTED TO COME THRU MON NIGHT WITH STRONG OFFSHORE
FLOW AND GOOD CAA DEVELOPING INTO TUE. THE GFS DOES LAG ENERGY IN
THE BASE BEHIND INTO TUE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ELEVATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE
FORECAST FOR TUE. DON`T THINK TEMPS WILL MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPR 50S
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE GIVEN THE STRONG CAA TAKING
PLACE. THE GFS PROGS H85 TEMPS OF 0 TO -2 DEC C BY TUE NIGHT.
CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE BY LATE TUE AFTN AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR WED MORNING...FORECASTING A FREEZE
FOR THE NRN ROW OF COUNTIES...WITH MID AND UPR 30S ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE SRN COUNTIES AND AROUND 40 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. THESE TEMPS MAY EVEN BE TOO WARM.

BY THU THE TROF EJECTS RAPIDLY NE AND ANOTHER WEAKER SYS EMERGES OUT
OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES. SHOULD SEE ONSHORE FLOW RESUME THU AND FRI IN
RESPONSE TO LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SRN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE.

[WaitingForSiren]

Meh, Im not so sure any more about this Monday outbreak. The models have trended toward a weaker storm and further north. I could still see isolated-scattered severe storms over eastern texas and western lousiana,though. Maybe a few tornadoes.