Winter Weather Returns to SoCal

[aveosmth]

It looks like we will have our coldest storm of the year coming through this Saturday. The 12Z GFS has trended even colder w/500MB temps in the minus 26-30 range. This is ideal for lower snow levels, thunderstorms, and hail.

I think we will see snow levels drop to 2.5K ft in the Bay Area and about 4K ft here in the Los Angeles area. That is going to cause major headaches for people traveling to the San Joaquin Valley as well as Las Vegas (Cajon & Tejon pass).

Snow flurries could reach the foothills of the high desert in convective outbursts as well. This storm is looking like a quick mover so it'll be out of here quickly, but I think we will see .5-1.5 inches of rain on the coasts w/2-4 inches in the valleys & foothills due to orographic lifting.

[weatherlover427]

Dan it, ya beat me by 2 minutes, I just posted this in the USA wx forum.

[weatherlover427]

This post is not an official NWS forecast, it is the opinion of the poster and no one else. For official information, please tune to your local NWS office, emergency management agency, or government office. Thank you.

WINTER STORM GUSTAVO WATCH FORECAST
3 DAY WARNING
CATEGORY 5

WINTER STORM GUSTAVO IS A CATEGORY 5 CURRENTLY, AND IS NOT A STORM TO
TAKE LIGHTLY. REMEMBER THIS IS A CATEGORY 5 STORM AND THE HIGHEST OF
THE ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE CATEGORY LEVELS. IF YOU HAVE NOT DONE SO,
GET SAND BAGS READY, AND GO OVER YOUR EMERGENCY PROCEDURES WITH YOUR
FAMILY IN THE EVENT OF A BLACKOUT OR FLOOD.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
ONTARIO WEATHER SERVICE ONTARIO CA
Thursday, January 12, 2006 5:33 AM

DISCUSSION ... FOR ALL OF SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ALL OF
ORANGE COUNTY ... SOUTHERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY ... WESTERN RIVERSIDE
COUNTY ... AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY ...

SYNOPSIS..Well as you all know, the Ontario Weather Service claimed
Winter Storm Gustavo last weekend for the Jan 14-15 timeframe. Well it
looks like we did claim it before any National Service out there. We
had Winter Storm Gustavo for this weekend!

PRE-STORM FACTS: This section will tell you what to look for in the sky
when a storm is predicted. The thing to look for is high clouds.
Scattered High Clouds should be visible TODAY. If they are, the storm
is ONTRACK.

...SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION...

MODEL ANALYSIS...Gustavo has shown on the Analysis for days now, and
will continue the watch!

THE RAIN CHANCES...Gustavo looks to be a major rain producer. A Flood
Warning will be posted for the forecast area, mainly the burn areas,
but areas in low lying areas, or at the bottom of a street hill could
see these floods. Flat lands, and especially carports will be in the
danger zone as well. You must drive safe, and do not speed. This storm
is a Category 5 and very dangerous! Low Level Winds look near 30mph,
but with gusts to near 45mph or even 50mph, we could see some great
rainfall from Gustavo. Low Levels are saturated. The front will be over
us in between 10am, and 4pm Saturday. After the front passes we will
still see the chances of rain around as the lower levels are still
saturated. The rain should end by Sunday Afternoon from west to east.

THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...Gustavo will have EXCELLENT Thunderstorm
chances. The most Thunderstorms we have seen so far this season. Well
not the most, but possibly the strongest. These Thunderstorms could be
severe, and have hail with them, high winds, and downpours you wouldn't
believe. The cold front will have isolated Thunderstorms along it, but
Saturday Evening, into the night will have the worst Thunderstorms!
This should end by mid morning Sunday. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch May
be needed for this event, but we will see addition analysis.

WIND CHANCES...Winds could be strong with Gustavo, just like Floyd was. Stay tuned!

MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...Winter Storm Hector is still right behind
Gustavo! We will update you on this as more analysis is done!

...WATCHES / WARNINGS / ADVISORIES...NONE

Upcoming forecast Events.

Today....Partly Cloudy with scattered high clouds around.
Friday..Partly cloudy
Saturday..Increasing clouds, chance of rain in the morning, then
Intense at near rush hour. Thunderstorms, with a chance of Hail will also be possible.
Saturday Night...Rain and Thunderstorms with a chance of hail. Snow
level 4500 feet.
Sunday...Clearing skies from West to East. Offshore flow may
develop...

[Burn1]

Next few weeks begin to see below average temps for west of the Rockies

[TT-SEA]

Thunderstorms and flooding???

The latest models show almost nothing at all. Too much drama sometimes!!


Rain for through weekend...