Barrow, Alaska

[Johnny]

This morning Barrow, Alaska was sitting at -20. It has been getting colder up there over the past week or two. For us here in the deep south we need to see temperatures in this region to be in the -35 to -45 range for us to get some bitter cold air. Of course the weather pattern needs to set up correctly for it to filter into the northwest territories and drive straight southward into Texas. Just something to keep an eye on.

[TS Zack]

Thats the pattern you need, hey and what do you know the GFS shows it.

Duhhhhh...

[Brent]

LOL... how many times does the GFS show a massive trough for the East and/or snowstorm for the South at Days 14-16 that never happen?



I like the trends though...

[Air Force Met]

LOL... how many times does the GFS show a massive trough for the East and/or snowstorm for the South at Days 14-16 that never happen?



I like the trends though...

HEY LOOK BRENT!!! It's the massive east coast trough that is always forecasted by the GFS on day 14-16 that never happens.

Wow...never seen that one before [/sarcasm]

[Ivanhater]

LOL... how many times does the GFS show a massive trough for the East and/or snowstorm for the South at Days 14-16 that never happen?



I like the trends though...

HEY LOOK BRENT!!! It's the massive east coast trough that is always forecasted by the GFS on day 14-16 that never happens.

Wow...never seen that one before [/sarcasm]

I'm done getting my hopes up! I'm wearing flip flops and shorts today and looks like all week! If this doesnt stop soon, I'm gonna bust out my swim wear and head to p'cola beach...this is ridiculous

[Air Force Met]

This morning Barrow, Alaska was sitting at -20. It has been getting colder up there over the past week or two. For us here in the deep south we need to see temperatures in this region to be in the -35 to -45 range for us to get some bitter cold air. Of course the weather pattern needs to set up correctly for it to filter into the northwest territories and drive straight southward into Texas. Just something to keep an eye on.

Yep...and as I posted on another thread...this is normal for them. Barrow was 0 from normal, Fairbanks was -1 from normal (avg low/hi). With Barrow, you want to see it well below normal...and then 20+ degrees above normal within a matter of a couple of days.

IN the days when we didn't have fancy models...that let us know the arctic air was moving down towards us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

This morning Barrow, Alaska was sitting at -20. It has been getting colder up there over the past week or two. For us here in the deep south we need to see temperatures in this region to be in the -35 to -45 range for us to get some bitter cold air. Of course the weather pattern needs to set up correctly for it to filter into the northwest territories and drive straight southward into Texas. Just something to keep an eye on.

Yep...and as I posted on another thread...this is normal for them. Barrow was 0 from normal, Fairbanks was -1 from normal (avg low/hi). With Barrow, you want to see it well below normal...and then 20+ degrees above normal within a matter of a couple of days.

IN the days when we didn't have fancy models...that let us know the arctic air was moving down towards us.

but also in the days we didn't have fancy models...the forecasting was not that good compared to todays.

[Air Force Met]

but also in the days we didn't have fancy models...the forecasting was not that good compared to todays.

Well that totally goes without saying...doesn't it?

[Tstormwatcher]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but central Alsaka has not had a true arctic out break, with temps of 40 to 50 below for weeks yet this winter.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Alaska and Canada shoudl begin to really cool off over the next 2 weeks. Below normal temps. will form in NE Alaska and most of Canada. This cold air will likely be forced southward into the U.S. in pulses over the next few weeks...but I think it ends in a major arctic outbreak...probably strong enough to shatter many records across the country.

[WaitingForSiren]

Wow, thats a big statement. Im not so sure we will see a legendary arctic outbreak this year. looking at climatic records, most of the record outbreaks occured in already cold winters. To go from unusual warmth to extreme cold is VERY rare. Im not saying it wont happen, but I dont see any record cold in sight this year. I think the bigger story will be the late winter-spring severe weather outbreaks, this year looks to be a very active severe weather season.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, thats a big statement. Im not so sure we will see a legendary arctic outbreak this year. looking at climatic records, most of the record outbreaks occured in already cold winters. To go from unusual warmth to extreme cold is VERY rare. Im not saying it wont happen, but I dont see any record cold in sight this year. I think the bigger story will be the late winter-spring severe weather outbreaks, this year looks to be a very active severe weather season.

I did not mean record cold all time outbreak. But I think (like with the December outbreaks) that many local records may fall in places across the plains and the east. May be some record lows and record cold highs for the day. Worst case though could be a record cold outbreak (such as that of 1989), but I am not expecting that unless I see further evidence to suggest that it may be possible.

[WaitingForSiren]

I can see where youre coming from. especially since models are forecasting a cold snap in a few weeks or so, and that is right at the coldest time of the year according to climatic records. So, it would be a favorable time of year for a major arctic outbreak. its only a matter of time... The only thing i cant stand is, whenever we get a major arctic outbreak, its dry for a long time afterwards. Best we can hope for is a lousy clipper with 2-3 inches of powder.

[Dionne]

Keep an eye on the weather at zip code 99587......which is Girdwood, Alaska. Girdwood is home to the Alyeska Ski Resort. It has been unusually warm with frequent rains. The bottom of the mountain has 2 inches of snow.....the top has had 207 inches (an elevation change of several thousand ft). It is not uncommon during an "average" winter for the resort to record 900 inches of snow. The likelyhood of that happening this year is remote.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Keep an eye on the weather at zip code 99587......which is Girdwood, Alaska. Girdwood is home to the Alyeska Ski Resort. It has been unusually warm with frequent rains. The bottom of the mountain has 2 inches of snow.....the top has had 207 inches (an elevation change of several thousand ft). It is not uncommon during an "average" winter for the resort to record 900 inches of snow. The likelyhood of that happening this year is remote.

just looked at it on NOAA.com. looks like they are expecting lots of snow over the next week, but really Girdwood is not the place to keep an eye on. Girdwood is in the mountains of southern and southwestern Alaska. When watching for cold air in Alaska...we are looking at mainly central, northern and eastern portions of the state.