The winter that never was.......here's Larry's take

[Planetsnow]

By Met Larry Cosgrove


Understand The Meaning Of The Term "Semizonal Flow" During The Next Ten Days! Generally Mild And Dry Trend Across Lower 48 States Punctuated By Two Quick Cold Intrusions Into Eastern U.S. Long term trends indicate no sign of winter until possibly mid February.

WEATHER SUMMARY THROUGH NEXT 72 HOURS

An intrusion of Arctic air is taking shape in central Canada, and it appears that the colder values will be drawn as far south as the Gulf Coast by tomorrow evening. A trough which is developing across the eastern third of the nation, while transient, will succeed in drawing the cold pool down in a fragmented fashion. This action will also have the effect of triggering lake-effect snow squalls in the prone leeshore areas, and may enable cyclogenesis off the SC coastline. The low which develops, however, will be poorly organized and a bit too far east to bother the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Only a portion of E NC and perhaps the shoreline of New England can expect to see any snow, and that looks to be minor.

Even the West Coast and Intermountain Region will be in a very boring, uneventful trend through the weekend. While disturbances offshore may enable heavy rain and mountain snows in coastal section of the Pacific Northwest, a rather uninspiring ridge complex across the western states will keep CA and points into the Great Plains dry and mild. Winds will not be an issue in the parched south central U.S., but the needed precipitation is nowhere in sight.


MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(weather trends through the next 6 to 10 days)

After the cold 500MB trough lifts out from the eastern states early next week, the jet stream configuration will take on what is termed a semizonal flow. In a true zonal flow, no blocking signatures are evident, atmospheric height contours take on a very flat, west-to-east alignment, and shortwaves are ill-defined and produce little precipitation. A semizonal flow is mainly westerly in nature, but impulses embedded can be more amplified but always progressive. Computer forecasts agree on a trend where there are disturbances within the unified stream, with little cold air transfer from Canada into lower 48 states.

Snow will be missing from the landscape below Interstate 90, since ImP and even mT regimes will be able to occupy the U.S. below the polar westerlies. It may even be that communities close to the Canadian border see mixed types. Bad news is that unless the 0z Jan 5 GGEM verifies, the ongoing drought across the lower Great Plains will still be in place on January 15. Indeed, the downslope nature of the wind fields will promote below average precipitation across most of the lower 48 states except for the Pacific Northwest.

How will the boring pattern break up? There are two possibilities. One is that the semizonal nature of the upper level winds take on a true "January Thaw" signature, wherein the southern branch dominates and draws in deep tropical moisture (TX and OK ought to pray for this scenario to occur). Another would be basic amplification of the PNA and/or NAO ridge positions, which would buckle the flow and return cold advection and moisture importation to the U.S. As I see it, those events cannot happen before 168 hours, so sit back and enjoy the lower utility bills.

However, my experience and analysis of long term trends tell me that the next two months may not offer much in terms of snowfall and cold across most of the lower 48 with a semi zonal flow continuing unabated. In fact, record high temperatures may occur across much of the lower 48 from mid January through much of February, with only some possible cold and snow in mid February, but that is a long shot given the current pattern. The arctic air building up in Canada will remain locked up for much of the rest of the winter. Hope you enjoyed early December, for that was pretty much our winter. This winter may go down in the record books for the least snowiest and warmest in several decades across many locations. Look for an early Spring in March with summertime heat making an early appearance in mid April with drought conditions becoming catastrophic across the plains.

Wish I had better news.

[CaptinCrunch]

Well that just sucks, now don't it!!

The Great Dust Bowl of the 1930's

http://www.english.uiuc.edu/maps/depression/dustbowl.htm

[gboudx]

Let's hope there's no repeat of that. Maybe our Summer will be wetter than normal. Hey, I can hope can't I?

[azsnowman]

Well that just sucks, now don't it!!

The Great Dust Bowl of the 1930's

http://www.english.uiuc.edu/maps/depression/dustbowl.htm

I'm afraid we are in for the same if not WORSE

Dennis

[Extremeweatherguy]

lets not push it. we are not nearly that severely in drought yet. The dust bowl took many years to reach the level it did, and I think if it were to occur again, we would be talking of many more years of drought. lets hope for the best, and pray we get some rain...but as for now, a dust bowl scenario seems unlikely.

[CaptinCrunch]

They said on the news today that we have only received 1/3 of a inch of rain over the last 65 days, and that we ended 2005 with 18.30" for the year, that's 13" below normal. Most lakes around NTX are between 12 and 16 feet below normal.

[Portastorm]

Mr. Bastardi from Accuweather echoes Larry Cosgrove's thoughts in his afternoon discussion today, using a 1933-34 analog.

This is getting depressing ... I hope they're wrong.

[KatDaddy]

Then comes hurricane season 2006

[Extremeweatherguy]

Mr. Bastardi from Accuweather echoes Larry Cosgrove's thoughts in his afternoon discussion today, using a 1933-34 analog.

This is getting depressing ... I hope they're wrong.

accually though, Joe Bastardi is also predicting a wetter a colder pattern to set up for the plains and east coast starting in mid to late January. He thinks the NAO will nose dive leading to possible citrus killing freezes for places like Florida. Winter is NOT over by any stretch of the imagination. Considering we have hit 20 in March before...I will not be out of my winter pattern until prob. March 15th when I will then accept that spring/summer has arrived.