Driest November on RECORD!

[azsnowman]

I've been waiting to post this just to make sure I was a 100% right before making this statement but this past November WAS the driest in recorded history Not even a TRACE was recorded in Pinetop, Lakeside and Show Low! I checked, double checked my stats and Show Low Muni's records........UNBELIEVEABLE and the sad part, NOTHING'S on the horizon. IF this pans out like I believe it's going to, this will be the first SNOWLESS winter in recorded history up here. Dewpoints have been running in the "below zero" range with the RH% in the single digits, I have never seen it so dry, we have wildfire warnings posted! Let's just hope this coming spring will bring some rain, if not........................................

Dennis

[azsnowman]

Never in my 39 years in the mountains have I witnessed what I saw today out in the woods. We took the dogs for a hike and EVERYWHERE on the ground was SAP........the Ponderosa Pines, Blue Spruce and Douglas Firs are GLISTENING with sap. This phenomenon happens when the trees are stressed to their maximum due to the lack of moisture. The trees will send sap to the needles to stop moisture loss........I've seen this one time, 2001, the year of the Rodeo Chediski Fire, one of the wests largest wildfires..........this AIN'T GOOD, NOT good at ALL

Dennis

[azsnowman]

Think this pretty much tells the tale.........a very dry winter in store lies ahead for us!

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/fgz



WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW SLOWLY MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED COLD NIGHTS. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS...STILL LOOKS LIKE A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WEDNESDAY BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIP OR SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN AZ. LAST FEW ECMWF AND GFS RUNS AS WELL AS ENSEMBLE RUNS FROM 00Z LAST NIGHT ALL GENERALLY ADVERTISING A CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD SOMEWHERE ALONG THE CA COAST LATE NEXT WEEK. EFFECTS ON NORTHERN AZ WEATHER AT THIS POINT LOOK MINIMAL IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS OR PRECIP CHANCES AS THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY KICK EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

[Aslkahuna]

We wound up with zero rainfall in November down here which ties with 1999 for the driest November. Bad thing is, things are looking like the 1999-2000 winter which was an absolute disaster down here with less than 10% of normal rainfall. I've been going for a dry winter down here since the Summer (as those who visit my homepage know) but the temperatures are going to be tricky since depending upon the position of the ridge (currently offshore) we will be either cold and dry or warm and dry but hardly wet.

Steve