The Future TD 4 Forming?

[wxman57]

Developing TD 4 Near Eastern Caribbean?

Here's a recent shot of the wave entering the Caribbean with sfc winds plotted. Note the NW wind in Trinidad. Looks like good outflow developing. Perhaps a broad surface low. In fact, it looks better than TD 3 does now.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/dennis3.gif">

[skysummit]

It has beautiful outflow! It may be a TD already.

[feederband]

Agree...

[Ivanhater]

that may be perhaps the most impressive looking system all season!

[x-y-no]

Thanks - I hadn't seen that Trinidad data. That's very suggestive that we've got something at least close to a TD out there.

Jan

[Rainband]

Wow!!!

[Hurricaneman]

Well see when it gets to the islands

[deguy50]

it looks real good

[skysummit]

Well see when it gets to the islands

At the clip that it's moving, shouldn't it be there in say....20 minutes? LOL j/j

[Weatherboy1]

Thanks for your detailed map. Looks like TAFB relocated the low associated with this system from farther W back to the vicinity of the Southern Windwards between the last analysis map and the more recent one. That gives this a better chance at development, in my opinion, especially if it can gain latitude quickly and avoid the "death zone" closer to SA.

However, in the past couple of yeras, I've seen a lot of the waves/lows that come screaming W at 20 mph+ south of 12 N just fly apart and/or die in that area (despite model and forecaster predictions for slowdowns and turns to the WNW). So I'm not going to get too concerned about this thing until it actually DOES start doing that.

-Mike

[Rainband]

Well see when it gets to the islands

At the clip that it's moving, shouldn't it be there in say....20 minutes? LOL j/j

The speed may kill it >>>it may outrun the convection

[x-y-no]

Well see when it gets to the islands

At the clip that it's moving, shouldn't it be there in say....20 minutes? LOL j/j

The speed may kill it >>>it may outrun the convection

Yes, it's going to have to slow down some in order to develop.

[Hyperstorm]

JUST what was needed for an upgrade. This westerly component of the wind down there suggests that the system is already a tropical low with deep convection. There are also strong winds associated with the wave since yesterday. The only thing that I find rather suspect is the pressure profiles in the southern islands. They are really not low at all, nor falling. We'll see how the NHC handles this in the next update...

[Guest]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS NEAR 20.7N 89.2W AT 1500 UTC ABOUT 55 MILES SE OF PROGRESO MEXICO MOVING NW 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT GUSTING TO 35 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND/OR MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MAY BE EMERGING OR REFORMING OFFSHORE OF THE N COAST OF YUCATAN WITH SLY WINDS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE PENINSULA. THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ALMOST SITTING RIGHT ON TOP OF BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND YUCATAN FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 84.5W-89.5W

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LIES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH A WEAK 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS W 15-20 KT. PRESSURES CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE AREA WITH SLY WINDS NOTED IN THE WINDWARDS S OF GRENADA AND ELY WINDS AT BARBADOS. THERE ARE BANDING FEATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE E SEMICIRCLE WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 56W-65W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 54W-60W APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLAND. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK DURING ITS TREKS WESTWARD THRU THE CARIBBEAN. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ESPECIALLY IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NOTED S OF 15N W OF 50W.

[skywarn]

Definately getting its act together.

[Rieyeuxs]

If this storm does get named, would it techincally be a CV storm since we've watched it come off the coast? It's held its own fairly well across the pond, but since it didn't develp a LLC out there, I was wondering it if would be classified as one.

And yes I'm a newbie still learning to read the maps...

[Hyperstorm]

BREAKING report....WSW wind JUST reported at Trinidad at 1pm...

I EXPECT a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement...

[cycloneye]

BREAKING report....WSW wind JUST reported at Trinidad at 1pm...

I EXPECT a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement...

Do you have a link of that statement or observation?

[Hyperstorm]

The system is looking very impressive...

Here's a link to the 2 pm observation which shows a WNW wind.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/TD.html

If I could only go back and get the 1 pm observation...Regardless, there is definitely a closed circulation in this system...

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Forward Speed is only a problem when you get to 25+ MPH

20 MPH is usually not an issue.